This content originally appeared as a newsletter sent by Warren Sharp on Monday, Aug 14th.
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What a performance for Justin Fields to open the preseason: 129 yards and 2 TDs on just 3 attempts.
If you didn’t watch the game live, you might have thought this was an epic display of brilliance through the air.
The reality was the air yardage on these 3 attempts was -2, -2, and -3 yards.
The work was done after the catch. And that is why the haters came out of the woodwork to mock the performance and rain on the parade.
But I view this performance for Fields in his first preseason game differently. And it’s a major step in the right direction for an offense that didn’t make life easy on Fields last year.
Last year, only 25% of Fields' passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage. That ranked #35 of 39 QBs.
Nothing was easy.
Fields threw the #4 highest rate of passes that traveled 20+ yards and the #5 highest rate of passes that traveled 10+ yards.
Deep passes are not only hard to complete. They take more time to develop which means the QB needs better protection for longer and/or must move around in the pocket while keeping his eyes deep downfield.
It’s not easy. Nor does it generate yards after the catch (YAC). Only 43% of Fields' yardage was YAC last year (#30).
There is absolutely nothing wrong with throwing passes underneath and generating a lot of YAC. In fact, two of the NFL’s best offensive minds, Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan, build their offenses around it.
Last year, the Chiefs and 49ers both ranked #1 and #2 in YAC/completion and #1 and #2 in % of total yardage from YAC.
They could make life harder on their QB, particularly Patrick Mahomes, but they reserve that for when it’s needed. Instead, it’s efficiency underneath.
this app LOST ITS MIND over 3 passes
last yr Justin Fields ranked:
#4 in % of passes thrown 20+ yds downfield
#5 in % of passes thrown 10+ yds downfield
nothing was easy
Andy Reid & Kyle Shanahan last yr:
#1 & #2 in YAC/comp
nothing wrong with making life easy for your QB pic.twitter.com/OVCYuXCH2e
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 13, 2023
I look forward to watching Fields in Week 2 and guarantee he’ll complete a pass beyond the line of scrimmage. But focusing on shorter, higher completion throws is actually progress for the Bears passing attack if they want to win more games in 2023.
This is one of many takeaways from the preseason that I’ll be sharing over the next few weeks.
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NFL Injury Report: Preseason Tracker for 2023
- Joe Burrow did some on-field work prior to the Bengals’ first preseason game.
- Davante Adams left Raiders practice early on Friday after injuring his leg, but the issue is considered minor by the team.
- The Colts expect Jonathan Taylor to return to training camp sometime this week.
- The Rams don’t expect wide receiver Cooper Kupp to participate in joint practices this week against the Raiders.
» Continue reading Preseason Injury Tracker
What We Can Learn: Wide Receiver Fantasy Football ADP for 2023
- In the past two years, the only receiver selected as a WR1 that outright flopped and averaged single-digit points was Allen Robinson in 2021.
- There have been 48 seasons here in which a wide receiver posted over 300 PPR points. 35 of those came from wideouts with a WR1 ADP while just five have come from wideouts with ADP outside of the top 24.
- Over the past two years, we have been particularly sharp at setting the top of the market at wide receiver, where the crux of elite scoring seasons come from at the position.
» Continue reading Wide Receiver Fantasy Football ADP
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Cowboys Win Total Over/Under for 2023: What’s the Smarter Bet?
- The Cowboys’ defense ranked fourth in both EPA per dropback and EPA per rush. However, one position opponents attacked was the cornerback spot opposite Trevon Diggs. The Cowboys significantly upgraded by adding veteran Stephon Gilmore.
- As the roster stands, the depth at the skill positions on offense is concerning. Injuries to either the running back or top wide receivers will leave unproven options to fill in as starters.
» Continue reading Cowboys Win Total Predictions
Best Quarterback Player Prop Bets (Unders)
- It would certainly be fun if the Ravens developed an exciting passing attack and turned Lamar Jackson loose under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. But as a general rule, don’t bet on established starters to shatter their career highs.
- Jackson has topped 3,000 passing yards only once when he threw for 3,127 during his MVP season of 2019. To be fair, there’s reason to hope Jackson will be supported by an improved receiving corps. However, we don’t know what Odell Beckham can offer after missing the 2022 season, and rookie Zay Flowers is also an unknown.
» Continue reading Best Quarterback Player Props
Use SAVE100 to save $100 on any season long betting package!
- All-Access = NFL + NFL Props + Fantasy + NCAAF — CLICK HERE
- Combo = NFL + NCAAF — CLICK HERE
- NFL-ONLY = NFL Sides + Totals — CLICK HERE
Reminder: Brand new for 2023 we're happy to now offer you the option to use services like Afterpay, Klarna or PayPal's “Pay Later” to defer payments until after the season starts. This allows you to get in on early bird discounts now (before we end them) but pay later.