“Our doubts are traitors, And make us lose the good we oft might win, By fearing to attempt.”
William Shakespeare, Measure for Measure
It's hard to look back at last night's NFC Championship Game and not wonder what exactly Kyle Shanahan was pondering with about 10 minutes remaining in the game. It probably wasn't Shakespearian text, but as the officials confirmed a down by contact call, the 49ers coach had a fairly simple decision to make.
Originally, Shanahan sent the punt team on the field, but after Sean McVay's head-scratching challenge, the 49ers brought the offense back on the field. At first it looked like a coach and a team seizing the moment. With the Super Bowl in reach, Shanahan was going to put the final nails in the coffin of a team he had beaten six-straight times over the last three seasons.
But as Jimmy Garoppolo barked orders at the line of scrimmage and receivers ran back-and-forth in motion, the reality became painfully obvious. San Francisco took a delay of game and brought the punt team to concede on fourth-and-7. It's an image that will probably be replayed in the heads of 49ers fans all offseason and beyond; their head coach so afraid of a mistake in the biggest of moments, he took the ball away from his quarterback and handed it to the other team.
The Rams didn't waste much time either, driving down and kicking a game-tying field goal on the ensuing possession and kicking the game-winning field goal on their next drive after forcing a three-and-out. In total, the 49ers never even gained positive yardage following the delay of game penalty, getting out-gained 97 to -3 over the final 10 minutes of the game.
Garoppolo's play over the final 15 minutes will certainly be scrutinized, and rightfully so, he was just 3-9 in the fourth quarter and ended the game with an interception. But Shanahan's complete refusal to give him the ball in the biggest moment of the game is incredibly damning, considering just how lopsided the numbers were in that situation:
—> SF (17) @ LA (14) <—
SF has 4th & 2 at the LAR 45Recommendation (VERY STRONG): 👉 Go for it (+5.4 WP)
Actual play: 🚨 (Run formation) PENALTY on SF, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LA 45 – No Play. pic.twitter.com/V6OPu2Iyzv— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) January 31, 2022
“We were never thinking about going for that,” said Shanahan, later adding, “We were up three points and didn't think it was the right decision.”
The list of quarterbacks Shanahan has worked with in the NFL is long on names and short on talent. He's won games with Nick Mullens, C.J. Beathard, Brian Hoyer, Matt Schaub, and Rex Grossman in the last decade while ascending from wunderkind offensive coordinator to franchise-altering head coach. Outside of MVP Matt Ryan, Shanahan hasn't necessarily had a quarterback who he can trust with the game on the line.
But even with Ryan under center, Shanahan's most iconic moment occurred, blowing a 28-3 to the Patriots in Super Bowl 51. It wasn't the only time he blew a double-digit lead in the Super Bowl, repeating the feat a few years later when the Niners lost to the Chiefs despite leading by 10 points with six minutes remaining. These instances don't represent a string of bad luck, it proves that Shanahan has been a flawed coach, conditioned by years of coaching mediocre quarterbacks and doubting their ability to win football games without him holding their hand.
Jimmy G. fought through this season–even with his replacement on the roster–leading the NFL in yards per completion and net yards per attempt. Still, Shanahan's full confidence wasn't necessarily in his quarterback this season. Look no further than last week in Green Bay when the head coach elected to call a Deebo Samuel run on third and seven with the 49ers on the outskirts of field goal range. The receiver/running back/offensive weapon picked up nine yards and set up the game-winning field goal, but the precedent was set: Garoppolo was not trusted to make a season-changing play.
Shanahan's best quality as a coach has been his ability to hide the deficiencies of his sub-par quarterbacks. His usage of motion and play-action has buoyed the play of his signal-callers for years, but his true colors have shown in the postseason again and again as he shies away from what has made him so successful.
Sunday's loss makes it easier for San Francisco to move on from Garoppolo in the offseason should they decide Lance is ready to become the starting quarterback after a year on the bench, save for two uneven starts. It would be nearly impossible to bid farewell to a quarterback that led your team to a pair of Super Bowls in a three-year span, but if the 49ers want to emerge with a Lombardi Trophy under Shanahan, they need to find a quarterback the coach doesn't doubt in the biggest moments of the season.
Because on Sunday night, Garoppolo didn't lose the NFC Championship Game for the 49ers, Shanahan did by not even letting him try to win it.