The New York Jets have been chosen to star in the HBO docuseries Hard Knocks for the upcoming 2023 NFL season.
The first episode airs Tuesday, August 6th at 10pm ET on the MAX streaming service.
At over 500 pages, Warren Sharp's new book 2023 Football Preview features dedicated chapters for all 32 NFL teams, fantasy football predictions, Vegas odds with forecasted wins plus hundreds of visuals and infographics breaking down the upcoming 2023 NFL season.
In honor of the first Hard Knocks episode, we're sharing Warren's team chapter for the New York Jets in its entirety, absolutely free below , to get you prepared for the upcoming series by delivering the smartest information & analysis in the fastest, most direct way possible.
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What would happen if you took a top-10 quarterback, lifted him off another team, and stuck him with the Jets defense? How far could that team go?
These are the hypothetical questions that get asked over and over again to fill time on sports talk shows.
While these debates fill air time, they pretty much are always a waste because they never happen. But it’s understandable why it would get questioned, particularly for the Jets.
The last Jets QB with a winning record in New York was Mark Sanchez. That was a decade ago. Here are the records since then:
- 8-14: Zach Wilson
- 1-8: Joe Flacco
- 2-5: Mike White
- 13-25: Sam Darnold
- 0-2: Luke Falk
- 0-1: Trevor Siemian
- 5-11: Josh McCown
- 1-6: Bryce Petty
- 13-14: Ryan Fitzpatrick
- 1-2: Mike Vick
- 12-18: Geno Smith
- 33-29: Mark Sanchez
Meanwhile, over that last decade, the Jets defense has a collective ranking of #4 in success rate and #10 in yards per play allowed.
They’ve been a top-10 defense in at least one of those metrics in 7 of those 10 years:
- 2022
- 2019
- 2018
- 2016
- 2015
- 2014
- 2013
Meanwhile, over that last decade, the Jets offense has collectively ranked #32 in EPA/play, #32 in success rate, and #32 in yards per play.
They’ve been the NFL’s worst offense in every important performance metric for the last decade.
And that’s largely because of their terrible quarterback play, which has likewise ranked #32 in EPA/play, success rate, and yards per play.
It hasn’t been the defense’s fault.
It’s been the offense’s fault.
(And the NFL’s fault for slanting the rules to favor offense in recent years. But that’s to be expected. No one wants to watch Todd Bowles’ Jets with Bryce Petty at the helm lose to Jeff Fisher’s Rams with Case Keenum at the helm by a final score of 9-6, as we did in 2016.)
So despite the defense being top-10, because of the NFL’s worst quarterback situation for 10 years running, the Jets didn’t make a single trip to the playoffs.
And that has gone on now for over a decade.
The Jets have the NFL’s longest playoff drought. It has been 12 years. Compare that to the rest of the NFL.
Active NFL playoff droughts (seasons):
- 12: Jets
- 11: –
- 10: –
- 9: –
- 8: –
- 7: Broncos
- 6: Lions
- 5: Panthers, Falcons
- 4: –
- 3: Texans
- 2: Colts, Bears, Commanders, Saints, Browns
- 1: Raiders, Steelers, Patriots, Cardinals, Titans, Packers, Rams
Yikes.
Yet despite that, as the Jets were attempting to bring Aaron Rodgers to New York, owner Woody Johnson made the following statement:
“I’m not the patient sort. We’re in the win business. We have to win now.”
I’m not sure what he was talking about. “The Win Business?”
The Jets are 34-80 (.289) since 2016.
WORST RECORD in the NFL!
The Jets have ONE winning season since 2011.
FEWEST in the NFL!
The Jets have gone 12 years without being in the playoffs.
LONGEST DROUGHT in the NFL!
The important part is they’ve now secured Rodgers. The best quarterback they’ve had in a generation.
The team loves it. After all, they were recruiting Rodgers on social media.
Their fans love it. The city loves it. The NFL loves it.
In fact, the NFL wants everyone around the world to know it.
Better yet, they want everyone to watch him play… in New York. And early in the season, to create buzz.
So the biggest game that could feature Rodgers at home in Week 1 does.
Monday Night Football. Week 1. In MetLife.
The Jets play 2 more primetime games through Week 9. National spotlight. Guess where they will be? In MetLife.
From Weeks 1 through 9, the Jets only play twice outside their stadium. That’s not just random. That’s the NFL wanting you to know from the start of the season that Aaron Rodgers is now a New York Jet.
They want you to see the panoramic skylines as they cut to and from commercial breaks. They want you to be excited.
The Jets this year have an enormous edge thanks to the NFL.
The NFL gave them the best rest edge in franchise history and in the entire NFL this season.
The NFL wants to see Aaron Rodgers of the New York Jets play in January in the playoffs.
But before we dig deeper into 2023, let’s put a bow on the 2022 Jets season.
The offense was terrible, just like in 2021, but Robert Saleh was able to deliver a defensive turnaround in his second year on the job.
In his first year, the Jets ranked 29th on early downs. That improved to second last year.
In his first year, the Jets ranked 32nd in defensive efficiency. That improved to 6th last year.
To add context to that improvement, the defense played the #1 toughest schedule of offenses in the NFL.
That said, the Jets were able to get Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater in their two games against the Dolphins instead of Tua Tagovailoa, Mitchell Trubisky instead of Kenny Pickett, Trevor Siemian instead of Justin Fields, and Brett Rypien instead of Russell Wilson. That’s 5 backup quarterbacks.
But the Jets played 7 games against top-10 offenses. Only the Titans played more.
Looking only at stats recorded against the top-10 offenses for all defenses, in those 7 games the defense ranked:
- #1 in yards/play allowed
- #1 in EPA/dropback allowed
- #2 in EPA/snap allowed
- #2 in success rate allowed
- #2 in YPA allowed
These 7 games were against the Bills twice, Bengals, Lions, Jaguars, and Dolphins twice. The lone caveat again is they did not face Tua in either game against the Dolphins.
But even if you remove those two games against the Dolphins, the Jets still would have ranked #2 in success rate allowed, #3 in yards/play allowed, and #5 in EPA/snap allowed.
They were a totally improved unit over the 2021 version.
On the other side of the ball, you had Zach Wilson leading this offense most of the year. All you really need to know is one statistic: completion percentage.
A quarterback has many duties and responsibilities, but at the core of his job description, he needs to complete passes. And Wilson couldn’t.
Zach Wilson completion % by year:
- 2021: 55.5% – dead last in NFL
- 2022: 54.9% – dead last in NFL
Absolutely horrendous.
In addition to accuracy issues, his judgment and processing were terrible. And Wilson’s tendency to hold onto the ball only made things worse.
Want to know a wild stat? On early downs, when…
Wilson threw the ball in less than 2.5 seconds, he ranked #9 in EPA/att.
Wilson threw the ball in more than 2.5 seconds, he ranked #43 in EPA/att and dead last (#47 of 47) in success rate.
This Mike LaFleur passing offense was semi-functional when Wilson actually threw the ball on schedule, but only 50% of his early down throws occurred within 2.5 seconds. And he ranked #45 of 47 for rate of “in rhythm” throws (attempts between 2.5 to 4 seconds).
Meanwhile, he had the NFL’s #3 highest rate of throws where he held the ball for 4 or more seconds.
And he had the NFL’s #1 highest rate of throws when holding the ball for 5-plus seconds.
These throws were absolute disasters. He averaged -1.16 EPA/att, 1.0 yards per attempt, and a laughable 4% of his throws graded out as successful.
But he held the ball that long at the highest rate in the NFL.
The running game left much to be desired as well. Part of it was the season-ending injury to Breece Hall.
Among the 42 running backs to have 100 or more carries, Michael Carter was dead last in expected points added per rush (-0.20), success rate (29.8%), and rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (6.1%).
The Jets had the #2 most injured offensive line, the #4 most injured running back corps, and the #6 most injured quarterback room.
What I’m interested to see is if the Jets play with more 3WR sets in 2023 and what that could do for the run game.
They’ve added Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman to pair with Garrett Wilson and Corey Davis. While they signed Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah last offseason, if they can get efficiency out of 3WR sets through the air, it should help the running game even more.
Last year, 59% of Hall’s rushes were with fewer than three receivers on the field, the 20th-highest rate out of 57 running backs. As a result, he faced 7+ man boxes on an above-average 76% of his rushes.
When he ran against a light box, Hall ranked #1 in YPC (8.1), #2 in success rate (65%), #1 in explosive run rate (26%), and #3 in EPA/rush (+0.36).
Against 7+ man boxes, Hall’s success rate dropped to 37% (#33), his YPC dropped to 4.3 (#26), and his EPA/rush dropped to +0.02 (#14).
As it relates to those receivers, Wilson had the most targets of any rookie receiver in the last 15 years but only caught 57% of them in large part due to quarterback inaccuracy. 19% of his targets from Wilson were uncatchable, and he also saw targets from Joe Flacco, Mike White, and Chris Streveler.
What was truly wild about the Jets last season is, in light of everything that went wrong:
- If the playoffs started October 15th, the 3-2 Jets would have been in.
- If the playoffs started November 1st, the 5-3 Jets would have been in.
- If the playoffs started November 15th, the 6-3 Jets would have been in.
- If the playoffs started December 1st, the 7-4 Jets would have been in.
We know Rodgers should dramatically improve the offense, and the defense was already balling. They will face the #1 toughest schedule of offenses (same as last year) and are projected to play the NFL’s #7 toughest overall schedule. However, that tough schedule is made easier thanks to rest edges along the way.
Rest edges can be valuable, especially late in the season. Here’s a scenario to think about:
You are the Buffalo Bills. It’s mid-November. The wear and tear of the season is ravaging your roster. Guys are dinged up but still playing, and the training room is packed.
You play on Monday night against the Broncos. By the time your players get home from the game, it’s early Tuesday morning. Treatment can begin to prepare them for a game on Sunday against the Jets.
But the Jets? They played on Sunday and started their treatment over 24 hours before your players. The Jets coaches have longer to work on a game plan. Their players have more time to watch film and get ready. It’s a small edge. But it’s not insignificant. And they add up.
Having 6 days between games when your opponent has 7 means you have a negative-1-day rest edge. Add up all of those days over the course of the season, and you have what is called “net rest edge.”
The Jets have the best rest edge in the NFL in 2023. They have 12 more days of rest than their opponents.
That’s the best net rest edge for the Jets ever in franchise history (what we can measure dating back 30-plus years).
Long has the NFL hoped a marquee quarterback would grace a marketplace like New York, and they got their wish when the Jets acquired Rodgers this offseason.
Suddenly, the Jets are given the best net rest edge in the NFL.
They get a bye week ahead of playing the Giants in Week 8. Luckily for the Jets, that game counts as a road game despite them playing at their home stadium.
So from October 5 through November 12, the Jets don’t leave New York.
They also have an advantage in key divisional games which could ultimately make a difference in who wins the AFC East.
The Jets don’t have a single rest disadvantage in any game they play against their division.
But in Week 11, the Jets get to play the Bills after Buffalo plays on Monday Night Football, thus putting the Bills on a day less rest.
In Week 15, the Jets take on the Dolphins. Similarly, the Dolphins play on Monday Night Football the week prior and have less rest before they face the Jets.
Finally, in Week 18 the Jets take on the Patriots. The Jets play on Thursday Night Football the week prior (Week 17), which gives them 3 more days to rest and prepare to face New England.
Not accounted for in the above example is another nugget that happens in Week 12 against the Dolphins.
The NFL decided to schedule their first Black Friday game ever. That game is obviously the Friday after Thanksgiving. And you can guess who they wanted to be the spotlight of such a historic game. The Jets. And for the game to be in New York.
As a result, the Jets’ opponent for that game (Miami Dolphins) must travel on a short week and play on the road, which presents a disadvantage to the team making that road trip on a short week.
In summary, the Jets play 4 divisional games late in the season.
All 4 of those games give them a KEY REST ADVANTAGE over their opponent.
And these advantages add up and could definitely help the Jets in the AFC East this season.
The Jets are the only team in the NFL to play 4 games with a rest edge from Week 11 onwards. Meanwhile, 14 teams have either 0 or 1 game with a rest edge from Week 11 onwards. That is a notable benefit for Rodgers’ new team.
Before the schedule was released, we already knew of another key advantage the Jets had, and that was the ability for them to play 10 games in their home stadium. But the way the games were scheduled provides added edges.
Another interesting point of context here is that Rodgers’ former team, the Packers, had the NFL’s WORST net rest edge in 2021. Now, his new team, the Jets, has the BEST.
And out of 17 games, only 7 are outside New York/New Jersey.
New York Jets 2022 Passing Recap & 2023 Outlook
The Jets had one of the worst quarterback situations in the league last season, holding back a potential breakout for a team that made a gigantic leap defensively.
The Jets were 30th in the league in success rate passing (35.9%), 27th in yards per pass attempt (6.4), and 28th in rate of throws deemed inaccurate via quarterback play (14.8%) per TruMedia.
The Jets have relegated Zach Wilson to backup now after acquiring Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is coming off the first season in which he posted negative expected points per dropback, but not all of it was on him.
His on-target throw percentage was actually higher than it was in 2021, and PFF calculated his 2022 adjusted completion rate as roughly the same as it was the year before. Green Bay wide receivers were credited with 40 dropped passes, which was the highest of Rodgers’ career.
At age 39, Rodgers is a short-term solution but a massive upgrade.
New York Jets 2022 Receiving Recap & 2023 Outlook
Attached to bottom-rung quarterback play, the Jets were 21st in yards per route run (1.22), and 25th in first down or touchdown rate per target (32.5%).
The Jets selected Garrett Wilson with the 10th overall pick in last year’s draft and were immediately rewarded. Wilson led all rookies with 1,103 receiving yards and won the Rookie of the Year award.
After a tumultuous season with Elijah Moore, the Jets moved on and directly replaced him with Allen Lazard. In 2022, Lazard set career-highs in targets (100), receptions (60), and receiving yards (788) to go along with six touchdowns.
The team also added Mecole Hardman and Randall Cobb on one-year contracts while they still have Corey Davis and Denzel Mims on the roster. New York tight ends collectively ranked 13th in receptions (80) and 17th in receiving yards (792) and touchdowns (five).
New York Jets 2022 Rushing Recap & 2023 Outlook
The Jets made Breece Hall the first running back taken in the 2022 draft, and he immediately showcased his explosion and versatility to justify the choice. Hall averaged 5.8 yards per carry, and no running back that saw as many opportunities as Hall averaged more yards per touch than his 6.9 average.
Unfortunately, Hall only appeared in seven games and handled 99 touches since he tore his ACL in October. He had his surgery on November 18th, putting the Week 1 start of the season right around 10 months of recovery.
Even if Hall is active to open the season, there could be some early limitations. Non-Hall running backs rushed 251 times for just 3.7 yards per carry and a 28.2% success rate which compelled the team to add Israel Abanikanda, who led the country with 13 touchdown runs of 10 or more yards in 2022 at Pitt.
Fantasy Football Impact for the 2023 New York Jets
The addition of Aaron Rodgers raises all tides in this offense.
After back-to-back MVP campaigns, Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game took a major step backward last season after trading Davante Adams. Rodgers was the QB28 in points per game (14.1) and averaged 13.4 passing points per game, the fewest of his career.
Rodgers undoubtedly took a step back last year, but Green Bay’s struggles were not all on him. His on-target throw percentage was actually higher than it was in 2021, and PFF calculated his 2022 adjusted completion rate as roughly the same as it was the year before. That is not a surprise considering Rodgers tied for the league “lead” with 40 dropped passes, easily the highest number of his career.
This situation has an almost identical overlap to what we saw with Tom Brady three years ago. Like Brady leaving New England, Rodgers is coming off his worst season and outright appeared to be uninterested at times with the offense.
Now, he gets paired with last season’s Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and a bunch of functional ancillary pieces attached to one of the league’s best defenses. Rodgers no longer has the rushing juice to knock on the door of the elite quarterback tier, but we should not be surprised if he closes his career out with lower-end QB1 seasons.
While Rodgers himself may not punch all of the way up to an elite scorer at his position, he does make everyone in this offense better as a whole.
Wilson led all rookies with 1,103 receiving yards and won the Rookie of the Year award. What is impressive about Wilson’s season is 16.3% of his targets were deemed inaccurate by the quarterback, which was the fourth-highest rate among all NFL wide receivers to have 100 or more targets in 2022. Rodgers was 15th in on-target accuracy targeting wide receivers in 2022 while Zach Wilson was 32nd.
We have a great understanding of what we have in Allen Lazard. He is strong in the contested catch game and a solid isolation receiver that struggles with nuance and creating separation. Lazard was targeted on 26.6% of his routes with 1.93 yards per route run against man coverage last season. He was targeted on 16.6% of his routes with 1.45 yards per route run against zone coverage.
Also, do not forget about Tyler Conklin here. Conklin was second on the team with 87 targets last season, catching 58 passes for 552 yards and three touchdowns.
17.2% of his targets were also deemed inaccurate, which was the highest rate among all tight ends to have as many targets as Conklin did on the season. Conklin is one of just nine tight ends to have more than 5o receptions and 500 receiving yards in each of the past two seasons.
Defensive Projections for the 2023 New York Jets
Headed into the final year of his rookie deal, Quinnen Williams has established himself as one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL. He led the team with 12 sacks, the 11th most in the league and only behind Chris Jones among interior rushers.
The Jets brought in ex-Seahawks DT Quinton Jefferson after losing Sheldon Rankins in free agency. Jefferson has been productive as a pass rusher in recent years, finishing with 5.5 sacks last season, but he is probably better suited for a rotational role.
There was speculation about Carl Lawson’s spot on the roster given his $15.7 million cap hit in the final year of his contract. Robert Saleh definitively put those rumors to bed, however, and Lawson will be back to lead this group after notching seven sacks and 49 pressures in 2022. John Franklin-Myers continued his solid play on the edge, finishing with five sacks, 51 pressures, and standing up well against the run.
The No. 26 overall pick last year, Jermaine Johnson was limited to a rotational role as a rookie, recording 2.5 sacks in 312 defensive snaps. Johnson taking a step forward would move this group from a solid one to one of the better in the league. It will also help if No. 15 overall pick Will McDonald IV hits the ground running.
Set to turn 31 in June, C.J. Mosley logged 158 tackles, 10 run stuffs, and seven passes defensed in 2022 on his way to a second-team All-Pro nod. Mosley is under contract through 2024, but the team can save $11 million against the cap if they release him next offseason.
With Mosley’s long-term future uncertain, it was important for the Jets to retain Quincy Williams. Williams finished 2022 with 106 tackles, 12 quarterback pressures, and 16 run stuffs, which tied for ninth among all linebackers, on just 70 percent of the defensive snaps.
The No. 4 overall pick last year, Sauce Gardner immediately established himself as one of the best corners in the league. He finished first in yards allowed per coverage snap (0.56) among qualifying corners according to PFF and rightfully earned Defensive Rookie of the Year and first-team All-Pro honors.
Signed to a three-year, $33 million deal last March, D.J. Reed finished sixth in yards allowed per coverage snap (0.71).
That duo helped the Jets finish sixth in pass defense efficiency.
Michael Carter II played solid football behind Gardner and Reed, lining up in the slot on 90 percent of his snaps and finishing with nine passes defensed. Cornerback is the strongest position group on the team and one of the stronger in the league.
The Jets sent a 2024 seventh-round pick to the Ravens in exchange for Chuck Clark ahead of free agency. Clark would have upgraded a weak point of this defense, but he suffered a serious knee injury in June.
Entering the second year of a two-year deal, Jordan Whitehead struggled in his first season with the Jets and was even brought up as a possible cap casualty early in the offseason. Now he looks poised to start next to Adrian Amos, who was brought in after Clark’s injury.
2023 New York Jets Personnel Rankings by Unit
The Jets' unit ranking improved in five of the seven categories from a season ago and they are our 11th-ranked roster based on an average of the units.
No team improved at quarterback more than the Jets, who jumped 18 spots from their placement a year ago. However, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers ranked second overall last year, and the Jets rank only ninth entering this season 一 so our confidence in Rodgers has dropped significantly.
Breece Hall played just seven games last year, but we saw enough to buy in. The Jets backfield jumped from 22nd to 13th despite no meaningful changes beyond the addition of fifth-round rookie Israel Abanikanda.
As a rookie, Garrett Wilson established himself as a No. 1 option. Wilson led the team with 35 targets at 15 or more yards downfield last year, but less than half (16) were catchable. Expect another sophomore-year leap for Wilson with better quarterback play. While there isn’t a great second option behind Wilson, there’s plenty of proven depth with Corey Davis, Allen Lazard, and Mecole Hardman.
The offensive line is the Jets' lowest-ranked unit, checking in at number 24. Given Rodgers advancing age, it's potentially a unit that could hold back an otherwise talented roster. Jets left tackles allowed pressure on 7.0% of dropbacks last year, which ranked 29th. Despite the issues, few changes were made and they’re banking on 38-year-old Duane Brown bouncing back from a tough year.
Votes for the front seven ranged from 10th to 17th. The low end of the spectrum likely focuses on the modest talent at most positions, while the high end recognizes the production which has been greater than the sum of its parts. On non-blitzes, the Jets surprisingly ranked sixth with a 32.9% pressure rate last year.
Anchored by superstar rookie Sauce Gardner, the Jets secondary emerged as one of the league’s top units last year, and they’ve taken over the number-one spot in our rankings. When the front seven failed to generate pressure, the Jets secondary still only allowed 6.4 yards per attempt, the league’s best rate.
Votes for Robert Saleh ranged from 16th to 24th. This will likely be a make-or-break year for the third-year coach.
Rookie Player Impact for the 2023 New York Jets
The Jets took a huge swing with their first pick Will McDonald IV (first round). As a 23-year-old senior in 2022, McDonald ranked 16th in the Big 12 in pressure rate generated on the edge out of 26 qualified players.
McDonald occasionally lined up out of position on the interior, which limited some of his run-game production, but 87% of his pass-rush snaps occurred while lined up from the five-tech spot or wider.
The Jets primarily line up in a four-man front (87% of snaps), which may be a better scheme fit for McDonald, though concerns about his lack of pass-rush production remain.
He’ll have a year to back up Carl Lawson before Lawson hits free agency, likely ceding the job to McDonald.
Joe Tippman (second round) will compete with Connor McGovern for the starting job at center and should be the favorite to win. Tippman will need to adjust to a more zone-heavy blocking scheme.
New Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett used zone blocking on 72% of his plays in Denver last year while offensive line coach Keith Carter used a 69% rate in Tennessee. This Jets scheme will look different than what Tippman was used to at Wisconsin.
Carter Warren (fourth round) was a four-year starter at Pitt, but he’s an ordinary athlete, returning from a season-ending knee injury, and struggled with penalties in college.
Over his final two seasons at Pitt, Warren committed 13 penalties in 18 games, a concerning rate for a player with 39 career starts.
With Mekhi Becton and Max Mitchell competing for the job at right tackle, it is tough to see how Warren fits in. Assuming both Becton and Mitchell remain on the roster, Warren will need to prove he has position flexibility to keep his roster spot.
Israel Abanikanda (fifth round) will compete with Michael Carter for backup duties behind Breece Hall.
Carter has not been the explosive weapon the Jets were hoping for. Only 6.1% of carries went for 10 or more yards last year, the league’s lowest rate.
Abanikanda generated at least 10 yards on 15.8% of his carries in 2022 at Pitt. Like Carter, Abanikanda tends to dance in the backfield in search of the big play and got stuffed for zero or negative yards on 17.5% of his carries.
Zaire Barnes (sixth round) is an athletic linebacker who excels in coverage and will provide some valuable depth. He has experience on every special teams unit and the athletic traits to continue to excel in those roles.
Jarrick Bernard-Converse (sixth round) had a tough year at LSU in 2022 but thrived at Oklahoma State prior to his transfer. Based on route-adjusted data,
Bernard-Converse allowed a catch rate 18% above expected in 2022, but that number was 18% below expected over the previous two seasons with the Cowboys.
His defensive coordinator at Oklahoma State, Jim Knowles, is among the best in the college game, so perhaps the right coaching can get Bernard-Converse back to that level of production.
6-foot-7 tight end Zack Kuntz (seventh round) spent three seasons buried on the depth chart at Penn State before making an impact at Old Dominion.
His deficiencies as a blocker likely hindered his ability to get on the field at Penn State, but he’s a good athlete for his size and could be developed into a weapon in the passing game.
The Jets parted with some draft assets in the Aaron Rodgers trade, but this still looks like an underwhelming class, especially considering their tight window of opportunity with Rodgers.
Tippman should win the starting job at center, but the rest of this class likely will not make much of an impact as rookies.
McDonald will be expected to step into a starting role eventually but, after trading for Rodgers, it was surprising to see Joe Douglas not use that selection on a player with a more clear path to helping them win in 2023.
Penalty Analysis for the 2023 New York Jets
The Good
- The defense was one of the least penalized in two key penalty categories: defensive holding and defensive pass interference. Despite the low volume of defensive pass interference penalties committed, the Jets averaged 25.3 yards per infraction in this category. That's far too high and needs to be reduced significantly.
- The Jets were excellent in home games, averaging just 4.25 penalties per game in 2022.
- Jets rookie WR Garrett Wilson was one of the best in the NFL at drawing defensive pass interference penalties. That is a positive going forward with Aaron Rodgers joining the team. Some players have a knack for drawing contact. Wilson is one of them.
The Bad
- The Jets committed too many dumb penalties. They ranked in the top five for both roughing the passer and unnecessary roughness penalties last season.
- The Jets averaged 6.3 penalties per game on the road, ranking them eighth overall in this category.
- The offense was dismal at benefiting from passing play penalties, ranking 30th overall in total beneficiary yards. Outside of the aforementioned Wilson, it was anemic.
- The Jets were the only team in 2022 to not benefit from a roughing the passer penalty. It may be a lack of respect from officials, that's difficult to say for certain. Rodgers has been the beneficiary of an average of four roughing penalties per season over the past four, so expect the Jets to get some calls with him at QB in 2023.
GRADE: C+
It is a mixed bag for the Jets, who were very good in the defensive secondary but offset that with overall undisciplined defensive play throughout the season. The offense was simply terrible and the primary reason for this grade.
The Jets have ample offensive talent, and Rodgers can be the catalyst for this team to be a big mover upwards as a passing play penalty beneficiary in 2023. Their 2022 grade is justified, but with more attention to detail on certain defensive penalties, the Jets can improve dramatically as a team in 2023.
The Jets also benefit from nine home games this season. If they can continue at or near that 4.25 penalty per-game average at MetLife Stadium, it will provide an advantage versus the Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles in the early season schedule.
Projected Win totals for the 2023 New York Jets
Why The Jets Will Go Over 9.5 Wins:
- The Jets are tied for the league’s best net rest advantage. Of the five games with a net rest advantage, four come after Week 11, providing a more significant advantage later in the season. Buffalo and Miami play on Monday prior to their last game against New York and the Jets play on Thursday prior to their Week 17 matchup with the Patriots. Another advantage is the fact that the Jets do not travel once from Week 6 through Week 9 as their lone road game is against the Giants.
- The Jets' quarterback play was abysmal in 2022 as both Zach Wilson and Joe Flacco finished 35th and 36th in completion rate over expected out of the 37 quarterbacks with over 200 plays. Aaron Rodgers had a dip in his play last season, but he is a year removed from back-to-back MVP seasons and will provide a significant upgrade.
- The Jets finished with the worst fumble luck. Their -5.0 fumbles recovered over expected and -7 turnover differential will likely improve with better fumble luck and with Rodgers, who has a 1.2% interception rate over the past five seasons.
Why The Jets Will Go Under 9.5 Wins:
- One year after facing the league’s most difficult schedule, the picture doesn’t get much better as the Jets have the seventh-most difficult schedule in 2023. Aaron Rodgers will be tested in his opening stretch as the Jets face the hardest schedule in the first six weeks, featuring matchups against the Bills, Chiefs, Eagles, and Cowboys.
- The Jets defense finished the season allowing the third-lowest passing success rate. Good fortune in terms of injury luck helped propel the defense as the Jets had the fewest adjusted games lost to injury. The defense is projected to play the hardest schedule of passing offenses in 2023. Remaining as a top-three passing defense will be a difficult task.
- Rodgers played behind an offensive line that allowed a 26.2% pressure rate last season. The Jets allowed a 35.9% pressure rate. Mekhi Becton is a question mark as he has played one game in the past two seasons. Alijah Vera-Tucker missed more games than he played last season. The Jets have a well-rounded roster, but the offensive line does create a little concern.
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