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Let’s talk about the blitz because quarterbacks are struggling.

We can talk about defenses playing high rates of two high if we want.

But you want to know something? That’s nothing new this year.

Through three weeks of the season, the rate of two high safeties on pass plays is 38.7%.

Last year, in 2023? It was 38.3%

In 2022? It was 39.1%.

In 2021? It was 38.3%

This is something that kicked off four years ago.

And actually, the performance against two high safeties is BETTER right now in 2024 than it was in 2023 and 2022 through three weeks of the season.

Yards per attempt is up:

  • 7.5 YPA this year
  • 7.0 last year
  • 6.6 in 2022.

EPA per attempt is up:

  • +0.01 this year
  • -0.05 last year
  • -0.07 in 2022

Success rate is up:

  • 44% this year
  • 42% last year
  • 41% in 2022

The REAL struggle is offenses vs. the blitz.

Notice I didn’t only say QBs because this is everyone.

This is QBs. This is OCs. This is O-Lines.

Look at the first three weeks of the season only, removing plays inside the red zone where EPA can potentially spike.

Against the blitz, QB EPA/att is -0.09 this year.

Last year it was -0.01. In 2022 it was 0.0 In 2021, it was a positive +0.03 In 2020, it was a positive +0.09.

In fact, this is the lowest mark through three weeks against the blitz since 2010.

There was a time offenses made defenses PAY for blitzing.

That time is no more.

Look at yards per attempt and expected points added, for example.

QB YPA and EPA against the blitz through Week 3 of the season:

  • 2024: 7.3, -0.09
  • 2023: 7.6, -0.01
  • 2022: 7.6, +0.00
  • 2021: 8.5, +0.03
  • 2020: 8.2, +0.09
  • 2019: 8.8, +0.13
  • 2018: 8.3, -0.02
  • 2017: 7.9, -0.06
  • 2016: 8.1, +0.06
  • 2015: 8.0, +0.02
  • 2014: 7.6, +0.03
  • 2013: 7.6, -0.02
  • 2012: 8.6, +0.12
  • 2011: 8.4, +0.22

Air yardage vs the blitz is at 8.0.

That’s the lowest through the 15 years of this study.

Almost 25% of passes against the blitz are being thrown behind the line of scrimmage.

That’s the highest through the 15 years of this study.

Back in the early 2010s, when defenses blitzed, QBs threw behind the line of scrimmage less than 15% of the time. They averaged 9.5 and higher air yards.

Now, they’re throwing behind the line on 25% of attempts and averaging only 8 air yards.

And wildly, right now we have the most mobile QBs at any point in history.

They’re not all runners, but the vast majority are mobile and are not pocket statues.

They should be able to move in the pocket, and that’s actually reflected in the pressure data.

Against the blitz, QBs are being pressured at a 37.5% rate this year.

It’s been in the low 40s each of the prior 3 years.

The 37.5% rate is the #3 lowest of the last 15 years.

But there are very few big plays being made.

Against the blitz, QB Boom rate, which is the rate at which they gain an EPA of +1 or better, is at an all time low.

Defensive coordinators are finding creative ways to simulate pressure and bring the blitz.

QBs don’t know who is coming or if an extra rusher is coming.

OCs aren’t getting their offenses prepared enough with answers.

Offensive line play is down and they aren’t recognizing blitzes.

QBs aren’t beating the blitzes.

Teams aren’t blitzing more.

In fact, the 25.4% blitz rate outside the red zone is the #3 lowest rate of the last decade.

But offenses are playing much worse against it.

From coaches on down, teams need to figure out a way to make defenses pay when they blitz.

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