7 NFL Offenses That Could Be More Explosive in 2024

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NFL average starting field position is likely to improve slightly given the new kickoff rules, but over the last several years, it has been right around the 28.5-yard line on average.

To demonstrate the massive impact of a SINGLE chunk play, I want to share this simple comparison.

On drives that start at or inside a team’s 30-yard line, those drives with zero explosive plays (defined as a play of 15+ yards):

• 6.2% of drives score points of any kind
• 4.8% of drives reach the red zone
• 2.3% of drives score a touchdown

But if that drive had exactly one play of 15+ yards:

• 51% of drives score points of any kind
• 39% of drives reach the red zone
• 28% of drives score a touchdown

Drives are over 10 times more likely to score a touchdown with just one play of 15+ yards!

Explosive Plays Are More Important Than Ever

Over the last three years, drives that had just one play of 15+ yards saw points scored at a 51% rate.

This is substantially higher than the 48% rate in the prior five years (2015-2019).

In fact, look at the score rates when a drive has one play of 15+ yards in five-year increments:

• 2000-2004: 39%
• 2005-2009: 41%
• 2010-2014: 42%
• 2015-2019: 48%
• 2020-2023: 51%

NFL Scoring Rates Over the Last Four Seasons:

• Drives with zero explosive plays: 6.3% score rate
• Drives with one explosive play: 51% score rate
• Drives with two or more explosive plays: 83% score rate

Explosive plays, even just one per drive, have become a more important element to scoring than they once were, and we know there isn’t a more important factor in wins than scoring points.

Efficiency on offense is vital, and bypassing third downs is one of the key elements in scoring and winning games.

There doesn’t need to be a distinction between efficiency and explosion, but sometimes chasing a bigger play results in reduced efficiency.

But the results show that even one play of 15 yards is massive. We don’t need to hunt 30 or 40-yard-deep passes to make a huge difference in point production.

Last summer, I attempted to predict eight offenses that would become more explosive in 2023 compared to the 2022 season.

I was correct on six of the eight teams.

Why does attempting to predict teams that will be more explosive matter? Because explosive teams make the playoffs.

Of the 12 teams that improved their explosive play rate MOST in 2023, nine made the playoffs:

• 49ers
• Texans
• Bucs
• Rams
• Dolphins
• Cowboys
• Ravens
• Steelers
• Packers

And of the top-16 teams in explosive play rate in 2023, 12 made the playoffs (same list from above plus the Eagles, Chiefs, and Lions).

So, let's try to predict those offenses that MISSED THE PLAYOFFS LAST YEAR and will be more explosive in 2024.

Sorted in order of confidence:

• Chicago Bears (#25 last year)
• Cincinnati Bengals (#27 last year)
• New York Jets (#31 last year)
• Atlanta Falcons (#20 last year)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (#22 last year)
• Arizona Cardinals (#17 last year)
• New York Giants (#29 last year)

Seven NFL Offenses That Could Be More Explosive in 2024

Chicago Bears (#25 last year)

The Bears ranked #25 in rate of plays to gain 15+ yards last year at 8.8%.

Among starting QBs to play in the preseason with at least 10 dropbacks, Caleb Williams ranked #2 in air yards per attempt with 10.1 on his 20 attempts.

He had the #1 highest time to throw at 3.4 seconds, which is too high, but that was a testament to his desire to make plays downfield. He also ranked #1 in percentage of completions to gain 10+ yards at 60%.

In addition, the Bears are projected to play the #1 easiest schedule of pass defenses AND the #1 easiest schedule of explosive pass defenses.

Finally, the Bears offensive line ranked #5 in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric last year, which measures the rate linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer.

Despite ranking #5, Justin Fields was pressured on 49% of his dropbacks last year, #1 highest in the NFL. That’s because the QB controls pressure even more than we once thought.

And just look at Justin Fields the last two years:

• 2022: 46% pressure rate (#1 highest), 14.7% sack rate (#1 highest)
• 2023: 49% pressure rate (#1 highest), 10.6% sack rate (#3 highest)

In his first three years, spanning 40 games, Fields was sacked 135 times.

That’s 3.38 sacks per game, the #2 most in NFL history for the first three years of a career.

It was only exceeded nearly 40 years ago in 1985-87 by Randall Cunningham.

And then you look at the receiving weapons he has: Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, and Rome Odunze.

Of the seven teams, I am most confident the Bears will be more explosive in 2024.

Cincinnati Bengals (#27 last year)

We know the Bengals were down last year with the loss of Joe Burrow, who played only 7.5 games, but we’ll also see the incorporation of Chase Brown, who is far more explosive than Joe Mixon.

Coach Zac Taylor and the offensive staff have emphasized the need to generate bigger plays, particularly by enhancing the passing game and increasing downfield threats. This strategy has been a focal point during the offseason and training camp.

The Bengals made several moves to bolster their offensive capabilities, including drafting wide receiver Jermaine Burton, who is known for his speed and ability to create big plays.

They reinforced their offensive line to give Burrow more time to execute these explosive plays. The addition of right tackle Trent Brown and the drafting of rookie Amarius Mims are key parts of this strategy.

The Bengals’ offensive line’s rank in ESPN’s pass block win rate by year:

• 2023: #27
• 2022: #30
• 2021: #30

They are the only offensive line to rank #27 or worse all three years. If that improves, even slightly in 2024, watch out for the explosiveness.

New York Jets (#31 last year)

While the Jets were #31 in explosiveness last year, that’s not much of a surprise. What is more of a surprise is the fact the Jets were #10 in explosiveness in 2022.

The decline was a combination of Zach Wilson and new OC Nathaniel Hackett. The bad news for the Jets is that Hackett is still calling plays. The good news is Wilson is riding the pine in Denver and Aaron Rodgers is the starter.

Wilson was one of just 6 quarterbacks since 2000 to post negative EPA/attempt in EACH of their first three years in the NFL.

His career completion rate is just 57%. He had zero seasons with even 61% completions. For perspective, the NFL average completion rate over that span is 65%.

With improvement likely along the offensive line and the team already having Breece Hall, they should get massive improvement in explosiveness.

Hall’s two seasons have come behind the #30 and #29 units in run block win rate, the #31 and #31 in offensive line injury rate, and the worst collective QB room in the NFL.

And yet he’s averaged the #4 highest rate of 15+ yard gains and the #5 highest rate of 20+ yard gains.

With a better line and QB, it’s a scary thought, but Hall could get even more explosive. And, of course, the obvious which is the pass game getting more explosive as well with Rodgers.

Atlanta Falcons (#20 last year)

Out goes Desmond Ridder, and in comes Kirk Cousins. Out goes Arthur Smith, and in comes Zac Robinson.

That’s really all you need to improve on the Falcons' explosiveness.

Robinson, coming from the Los Angeles Rams, brings with him a system that heavily utilizes 11 personnel, which is expected to open up the Falcons' passing game significantly.

This is a notable change. The Falcons were previously one of the least frequent users of this personnel grouping.

They added Darnell Mooney, who will get run in 11 personnel and is a solid deep threat. With fewer runs for minimal yardage on first down to more explosive play calling, I expect the Falcons offense to move to an above-average offense in explosiveness in 2024.

Jacksonville Jaguars (#22 last year)

The Jaguars experienced a massive dropoff in explosive play rate in 2023.

In 2022, they ranked #7 in the rate of plays to gain 15+ yards and #8 in the rate of plays to gain 20+ yards. Last year, both of those rates plummeted to #22 and #18 respectively.

A large part of that was dropped passes. A massive 22% of Trevor Lawrence’s incompletions were due to receiver error, the #3 highest in the NFL last year.

Last year, Lawrence threw 120 passes of 15+ air yards, which was the #6 most of any QB in the NFL, but just 42% of those were completed, clocking in at a below average #24.

The team replaced their starting center in the offseason, and their offensive line last year was #15 in health with their WR room ranking #27.

Gone is Calvin Ridley, responsible for a ton of targets but also a ton of drops.

Expanding further than just drops, looking at all incompletions that are charted by PFF as “receiver error,” the QB who lost the most EPA was, by far, Lawrence.

He lost 57.9 EPA on incompletions due to receiver error.

The NFL average was -21.6. The next closest QB was Matthew Stafford at -43.9 followed by Patrick Mahomes at -43.6 and Jared Goff at -39.3.

None of them were close to Lawrence.

Insert newly drafted potential stud Brian Thomas Jr. and downfield threat Gabe Davis, and there is a good chance this offense gets more explosive in 2024.

Arizona Cardinals (#17 last year)

In year one of OC Drew Petzing, the Cardinals offense made a massive improvement in explosiveness. This team ranked #30 in 15+ play rate and #31 in 20+ play rate in 2022. Last year, they jumped to #17 and #14 respectively.

I still think there is some room for improvement primarily due to personnel.

Kyler Murray played in only eight games last year, and the Cardinals used the No. 4 overall draft pick on Marvin Harrison Jr.

They also have one of the most explosive run games in the NFL.

Last year they ranked #5 in YPC, #2 in yards after contact per rush, and #2 in explosive run rate (11%). This year, they added the explosive Trey Benson to the mix.

With more games from Kyler and two explosive rookies, the Cardinals should be above average in explosiveness in 2024.

New York Giants (#29 last year)

It’s hard to be optimistic with Daniel Jones at QB, but how about with Tommy DeVito? Because that’s what the Giants were dealing with for most of the season last year.

Now add in Malik Nabers. Then add in a more aggressive approach from Brian Daboll, who is taking back play calling duties.

In the preseason, 44% of Daniel Jones' 18 passes were thrown 10+ yards, which was #1 most of any NFL starter with at least 3 attempts. 55% of his completions gained 10+ yards, which ranked #2 behind only Caleb Williams.

It was only preseason, and the Giants were testing things, so I don’t expect those rates to carry over into the regular season.

But the point is they are looking to intentionally improve their horrible track record in explosive rates from 2022 and 2023, and I think they will find more success in 2024.