Find more analysis like this in Warren Sharp's 2024 Football Preview book. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2024 Football Preview.
As we shared earlier this week, modern defenses are getting better and better at limiting the efficiency of passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage.
Running back targets are no different.
Let’s look at the best ways to utilize running backs in the passing game compared to how offensive coordinators have used them recently.
When NOT to target running backs
1. Stop targeting RBs behind the line of scrimmage
For this analysis, we will remove RB targets inside the 10-yard line, as this is the time you WANT to target RBs, even if it’s behind the line of scrimmage.
We will address this later in the analysis.
For the time being, let’s focus on the other 90 yards of the football field.
Look at the splits when targeting RBs:
- behind the LOS: -0.16 EPA/attempt, 35% success, 5.0 YPA, 21% 1st down rate
- beyond the LOS: +0.05 EPA/attempt, 46% success, 6.6 YPA, 29% 1st down rate
And yet of the 6,266 total RB targets over the last two years (outside the 10-yard line), 3,520 have come at or behind the line of scrimmage. That is 56% of the total.
If teams reduced that rate substantially, they would receive much more production out of RB targets.
If you think the answer is that dump off throws, which happen late on a particular play as a last resort, are pulling down these averages, and designed RB passes, which occur as a first read and early in a snap, are more efficient, then you would be wrong.
RB passes occurring inside 2 seconds of a snap result in -0.17 EPA/att and 36% success with 4.7 YPA.
RB passes occurring from 2 seconds of a snap onward result in -0.06 EPA/att, 39% success, and 6.0 YPA.
So, the answer isn't more designed RB passes. The answer is to pass it only when it's advantageous, as outlined below in this article.
2. Stop targeting RBs on third down
Let’s even remove all targets behind the line of scrimmage, since we know that’s where RBs targets are at their worst, and focus only on targets thrown beyond the line of scrimmage.
RB targets are vastly more efficient on early downs than on third downs.
- Early downs: +0.06 EPA/attempt, 48% success
- Third downs: -0.01 EPA/attempt, 39% success
No other position sees this large a drop in success when shifting from early down to third down.
Sticking to the same parameters (outside the 10, thrown beyond the LOS) WR targets have a 54% early down success and 48% third down success.
TE targets have a 55% early down success and a 48% third down success.
But RB targets drop 9 percentage points.
Now look at the comparison in efficiency of RB targets vs. other targets on third downs.
On third downs:
- WR targets: +0.31 EPA/attempt, 48% success, 8.6 YPA, 45% 1st down rate
- TE targets: +0.26 EPA/attempt, 48% success, 8.0 YPA, 45% 1st down rate
- RB targets: -0.01 EPA/attempts, 39% success, 6.6 YPA, 35% 1st down rate
These splits are not close at all and further illustrate how -EV it is to target RBs on third down.
3. Stop targeting RBs from shotgun without play action
The vast majority of RB targets come from shotgun without play action. But look at the alternative splits in performance for 2023:
- Shotgun, no play action: -0.14 EPA/attempt, 37% success, 5.1 YPA (2,497 attempts)
- Shotgun, with play action: +0.19 EPA/attempt, 49% success, 7.6 YPA (267 attempts)
- Under center, with play action: +0.04 EPA/attempt, 46% success, 6.8 YPA (418 attempts)
- Under center, no play action: +0.13 EPA/attempt, 45% success, 7.1 YPA (73 attempts)
As is fairly clear, shotgun targets without play action are the absolute worst way to target RBs, but they are, by far, the most common means of targeting RBs in the passing game.
When to Target Running Backs
1. Inside the 10-yard line
We removed RB targets inside the 10-yard line from the above analysis so that we could get a truer sense of when to target RBs.
That’s because RB targets inside the 10-yard line are extremely successful and underutilized by OCs.
Over the last two years inside the 10-yard line:
- RB targets: +0.13 EPA/attempt, 48% success, 70% completion rate, 18:1 TD:INT (317 attempts)
- WR targets: +0.08 EPA/attempt, 42% success, 49% completion rate, 13:1 TD:INT (1,154 attempts)
- TE targets: +0.22 EPA/attempt, 51% success, 58% completion rate, 20:1 TD:INT (528 attempts)
And if your play caller wants something behind the line of scrimmage, there is no question RB targets have been the most efficient type down inside the 10-yard line.
This is the lone position group you could successfully target behind the line of scrimmage when you’re near the end zone.
Behind the LOS, inside the 10-yard line:
- RB targets: +0.13 EPA/attempt, 47% success, 80% completion rate, 46:1 TD:INT (146 attempts)
- WR targets: -0.16 EPA/attempt, 36% success, 77% completion rate, 13:1 TD:INT (141 attempts)
- TE targets: -0.35 EPA/attempt, 40% success, 71% completion rate, 19:1 TD:INT (78 attempts)
2. With play action from 12 personnel
Of the 3,255 RB targets last season, unsurprisingly the vast majority came from 11 personnel (68%) while an additional 15% came from 12 personnel. The remainder came from 21 (9%) or groupings with 2% or fewer targets.
Earlier we mentioned how frequently RBs were targeted from shotgun without play action and how poor these targets were.
As it turns out, using play action isn’t the silver bullet to gain efficiency from RB targets.
Because even targeting RBs with play action from 11 personnel is not efficient.
- No play action, from 11 personnel: -0.13 EPA/attempt, 36% success, 5.1 YPA (1,973 attempts)
- With play action, from 11 personnel: -0.04 EPA/attempt, 40% success, 6.2 YPA (234 attempts)
- No play action, from 12 personnel: -0.12 EPA/attempt, 37% success, 4.9 YPA (284 attempts)
- With play action, from 12 personnel: +0.28 EPA/attempt, 52% success, 8.4 YPA (217 attempts)
Order Warren Sharp's 2024 Football Preview for this kind of analysis for all 32 NFL teams.
Warren Sharp’s 500+ page full-color PDF, the 2024 Football Preview, is unlike anything you have previously read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought process abounds in every team chapter and article.
Get Warren's Book for $34.99
Warren Sharp's book shares insights into the players, coaches, teams, and philosophies with one goal: to prepare you for the 2024 NFL season with the smartest information delivered in the fastest, most direct way possible for optimal reviewing and retention.
- Team Chapters previews are in-depth, data driven & full of actionable info
- Fantasy Football player profiles, predictions, and ranks
- Vegas Odds forecast team wins, division rankings, lines for all 2024 games
- Coaching strategic advice for teams, play calling analysis & team tendencies
- Front Office Analysis positional spending, roster construction & cap analysis
- Reasons to bet over/under win totals & analysis of futures betting market
- Rookie draft class deep dive into impact for every team
- Rankings for every positional unit on every team with analysis