2026 NFL Strength Of Schedule, Regular Season

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With odds released for all 32 NFL teams, we are now able to calculate NFL Strength of Schedule using projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers.

What NFL team has the easiest schedule in 2026?

Based on projected win totals, the Detroit Lions have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2026 NFL season.

NFL teams with the easiest schedules in 2026:

1. Detroit Lions
2. New Orleans Saints
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Cleveland Browns
5. New York Jets

What NFL team has the hardest schedule in 2026?

Based on projected win totals, the Arizona Cardinals have the hardest strength of schedule for the 2026 NFL season.

NFL teams with the hardest schedules in 2026:

1. Arizona Cardinals
2. Miami Dolphins
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Los Angeles Rams

We've ranked the 2026 schedule for every NFL team from easiest (#1) to hardest (#32), plus current betting odds and win totals for every NFL team.

2026 NFL Strength of Schedule:

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2026 NFL Strength of Schedule, Visualization

While there are no perfect strength of schedule metrics, using 2026 Vegas win totals is much better than most widely used metrics that incorporate the previous season's record.

Here is a visual breakdown of 2026 NFL strength of schedule rankings for each NFL team, based on Vegas win totals.

Why are prior season win-loss records unreliable when predicting strength of schedule?

Basing strength of schedule on last year's records is lazy, inaccurate, and inefficient.

NFL teams often undergo significant changes between seasons, including roster adjustments, coaching staff changes, and player development.

Additionally, the NFL's 17-game season is a small sample size.

Outcomes can be heavily influenced by luck, such as fumble recoveries or tipped passes.

These factors make prior season records a poor indicator of future performance.

Statistical analysis supports this.

From 2010 to 2018, only 5.7% of a team's actual SOS was explained by opponents' prior-year records, and this correlation dropped to just 3.9% in more recent years.

Strength of schedule calculations based on prior season records do not effectively predict future team success.

For instance, regression analysis showed that only 0.028% of a team's wins could be explained by the traditional SOS metric, with a p-value of 0.79, indicating no statistically significant relationship.

This underscores the inadequacy of using past records to forecast future outcomes.

In short, traditional strength of schedule doesn't predict anything related to future success.

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Why do predicted win totals provide more accurate strength of schedule results?

Projected win totals incorporate current information about team strength, including offseason acquisitions, injuries, and coaching changes.

These projections are crafted by sportsbooks aiming to predict future performance, making them more reflective of a team's current capabilities.

While no SOS metric is perfect, using Vegas win totals provides a better indication of what teams could look like in the upcoming season than relying on the previous year's wins.

We know that certain teams will benefit from luck factors in games next season, such as fumble recoveries, opponent field goal misses, tipped passes that result in interceptions, and red zone variance.

But with current projected win totals, the pure luck factors that decide games are not incorporated.

Think of it as if they are ignored or are evenly distributed across all 32 teams.

But looking at last year’s records, that is not the case.

There is not an even distribution of these luck factors, and as a result, prior-year records are skewed due to luck.

Thus, incorporating those wonky results into future calculations leads to a higher error rate.

Ignoring luck (or distributing it equally among all 32 teams) will increase schedule projection accuracy.

How accurate is Warren Sharp's model for determining strength of schedule?

By leveraging projected win totals and current season data, Warren Sharp’s strength of schedule model provides a more accurate and insightful tool for assessing team schedules and forecasting performance.

Historical data confirms these results. Year in and year out:

• Teams that are predicted to have the easiest schedule are far more likely to finish with winning records.
• Teams that are predicted to have the hardest schedules are far more likely to finish with losing records.
• The vast majority of teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules finish the season with winning records.
• The vast majority of teams forecast to have losing records and predicted to have harder than average schedules finish the season with losing records.

Are Warren Sharp’s strength of schedule projections accurate? 

Short answer: YES

Is strength of schedule important?

• In 2025, just 2 of 8 teams with the toughest schedules made the playoffs (Texans, Rams). That list included the Vikings and the Chiefs.

Historically, trying to overachieve against a brutal schedule rarely happens.

But winning against an easy schedule and overachieving compared to expectations happens often.

2026 NFL Strength of Schedule vs. 2025 Actual

Looking at actual strength of schedule team ranks from last season (2025) versus the projected 2026 strength of schedule, we can see which team schedules have improved or worsened year over year.