I guess I finally found it. I found the single biggest indicator of who wins NFL football games. Last week I was sitting around watching games and decided to look up accuracy stats and I noticed that of the worst eight quarterbacks in Expected Completion Percentage differential (basically their completion % vs what is actually expected for the average NFL QB in that exact situation), there was a direct correlation into their teams winning and losing.
Six of the eight lost and one of those had to win because two of the eight were in the same game. Of the 14 games on Sunday afternoon, seven of the eight with the worst expected completion differential lost their games. That is amazing! The only one quarterback who won was the Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. And let's be honest, he did not have a lot to do with that. His team won 16-14 on a last-second field goal in a game where his defense dominated.
Here are your worst throwers this week:
- Josh Rosen, Miami Dolphins (-19.6% difference)
- Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (-17.9%)
- Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (-14.3%)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins (-12.6%)
- Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (-11.7%)
- Mitchell Trusbisky, Chicago Bears (-11.5%)
- Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (-9.5%)
- Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5%)
Let's look at the Dolphins' duo first. The Dolphins are clearly the worst team in the NFL, but when they do have a chance, they must be able to take advantage. This 42 air-yard throw by Fitzpatrick has several problems.
First, it's inaccuracy is that it is short of the DeVante Parker and he has the cornerback beat. The other problem is Fitzmagic waits too long to throw it. He has a one-high safety look, so no help unless he waits and allows the safety to get over. He does wait too long and hangs it up and as a result, instead of a touchdown, it's 2nd and 10. Classic Miami.
Now trot in Josh Rosen to give them a spark.
Rosen actually came in and threw a couple of good balls but that's not good enough. In the NFL you have to be consistent. On this play, Rosen has to throw the ball sooner to hit Allen Hurns in the hole and no one wants the ball super high over the middle. Terrible QB accuracy, terrible results.
I am big on the idea one play can be the difference in a game even with a lopsided score if it happened early enough to change momentum or even the way the teams called their plays from that point onward. Early in the second quarter of the Cincinnati game, Dalton scrambled up in the pocket, spotted Auden Tate, and tried to put a touch throw on it for what would have been a touchdown. Dalton overthrew him by three yards and was also across the line of scrimmage for a penalty and they miss a field goal and don't score on that drive. That's terrible for an NFL QB.
Finally, there is our only winner of the group of eight, Trubisky. Despite the win, the offense was not reliant on the quarterback, who completed just one pass over 10 yards past the line of scrimmage.
He missed some easy ones and some touchdowns. On this play early in the first quarter, he scrambled and had Tarik Cohen three yards behind the defender. Easy TD? Not if he throws it behind him. Then it is a pass defended and a misleading celebration for Broncos safety Justin Simmons.
The Bears were extremely fortunate to get a win with poor quarterback play for much of the game.
