With 2023 NFL training camps on the horizon, we’re starting to get an idea of how 2023 NFL draft classes will impact each roster this season.
Let's look at the Carolina Panthers, breaking down the most likely instant-impact rookies from each class, while also providing some insight into why certain early picks may not see the field.
These insights are an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 500+ page book “2023 Football Preview” which is now available for download.
In the book, you can find a comprehensive breakdown of the rookie class for all 32 NFL teams by draft guru Ryan McCrystal.
Who are the Carolina Panthers rookies?
- Bryce Young, QB, Alabama | Round 1, Pick 1
- Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss | Round 2, Pick 39
- DJ Johnson, EDGE, Oregon | Round 3, Pick 80
- Chandler Zavala, OG, NC State | Round 4, Pick 114
- Jammie Robinson, S, Florida State | Round 5, Pick 145
Carolina Panthers Draft Class Grade:
The Panthers received a B+ rookie class draft grade from PFF, a B from ESPN, and a C+ from NFL Network.
Which Panthers Rookies Will Make An Impact?
The Panthers are betting on Byrce Young (first round) stabilizing the organization. It was a safe selection as Young’s ability to process from the pocket sets a high floor. However, there are some concerning aspects to Young’s game that set a lower ceiling than most No. 1 picks.
Young’s most glaring weakness is arm strength, which limits his ability to challenge defenses downfield. Based on route-adjusted data, Young generated an on-target rate 2.9% above expected in 2022. However, on explosive routes (go, corner, post, fade, deep cross, seam), his rate was 13.5% below expected.
It’s certainly possible to win with a quarterback who doesn’t excel at stretching the field, but Young will need to continue developing elite traits in all other areas of the game.
Jonathan Mingo (second round) is an ideal receiver to pair with Young due to his ability to produce after the catch. Over the last two seasons, Mingo generated 19% more yards after the catch than expected, based on route-adjusted data, and 25% more on the most common NFL routes (curl, dig, drag, flat, out, slant, screen).
Since an offense with Young at quarterback needs to be skewed toward the short and intermediate-level passing game, having a receiver like Mingo who turns into a running back after the catch is a must.
DJ Johnson (third round) didn’t earn a starting job in college until he was a 24-year-old, sixth-year senior. Obviously his slow development is a red flag, but he posted impressive testing numbers for an edge rusher with his size and length. Johnson’s 13.0% pressure rate in 2022 ranked 11th among Pac-12 edge rushers, so there’s some production to support this selection, but he certainly came off the board earlier than expected.
Reaching for Johnson may have been a bit of a desperation move. Brian Burns, Marquis Haynes, and Yetur Gross-Matos are all in the final year of their contracts.
Chandler Zavala (fourth round) might be forced into an immediate role in place of the injured Austin Corbett. In the long run, he likely will provide depth at guard behind Corbett and Brady Christensen, who are both under contract for two more years.
Jammie Robinson (fifth round) is an undersized safety who didn’t test well, but his production at South Carolina and Florida State was undeniable. He’s the ideal Day 3 pick as someone who lacked the traits to earn higher draft grades but clearly has the football IQ to carve out a role for himself.
Expect Robinson to excel on special teams early in his career, but he could be a starter down the road. His ability to read the quarterback and find the ball makes him an ideal fit in the deep secondary.
It’s unfortunate Carolina had to sacrifice so much draft capital to move up for Young because this roster could have used more than five rookies. That said, it was an understandable choice given the revolving door the franchise suffered through at quarterback since the downfall of Cam Newton.