Welcome to the second installment of 1st & 10, our weekly recap column bringing you a deeper look at Sunday's NFL action. Week 1 can be a complete landmine in terms of figuring out what teams really are or will be for the rest of the season. We don't always get a much clearer picture in Week 2, but we can start by eliminating the non-contenders as we figure out the rest of the league.
1. Goodbye to the 0-2 teams
We can start this week by saying goodbye to the teams who saw their 2019 seasons effectively end on Sunday. The Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Broncos, Washington Redskins, New York Giants, and Carolina Panthers (a Thursday casualty) dropped to 0-2 on the season, a near death stroke for playoff hopes. With a Monday Night Football matchup between the 0-1 Cleveland Browns and 0-1 New York Jets, there will one more team to join the group. Losing two games in a row at any point in the season is bad for a team, but it’s particularly troubling to start the season.
Only around 10% of teams that start 0-2 make the playoffs in that season. That’s not 10% playoff odds, it’s just 10% of teams with that record make the playoffs. So maybe one team of these eight (soon to be nine) teams can turn it around to go on a run and sneak into the playoffs. Last year two 0-2 starters made the unlikely climb back into the race — the Seattle Seahawks and Houston Texans. Houston actually started 0-3 last season then ripped off nine straight wins en route to an 11-5 finish. Not every team gets to play in the AFC South do, though. Well, the Jaguars do but they’re already down a divisional game to the Texans.
2. Miami might be worse than we thought
Miami deserves its own section because as bad as we thought this Dolphins team could be, it might be worse. Over the past two weeks, the Dolphins have been outscored by 92 points — a 59-10 loss to the Baltimore Ravens and 43-0 to the New England Patriots on Sunday. For some reference, the 5-11 San Francisco 49ers finished the 2018 season with a minus-93 point differential, much of that spent with second- and third-string quarterbacks running the offense. Miami’s minus-92 point differential in a team’s first two games ties the 1973 New Orleans Saints for the worst point differential to start the season since the merger. Only two other teams since the merger have been worse than a minus-80 point differential in the first two games.
| Year | Team | Week 1-2 Point Differential | Points For | Points Against | Season Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1978 | Baltimore Colts | -80 | 0 | 80 | 5-11 |
| 1989 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -82 | 10 | 92 | 9-7 |
| 1973 | New Orleans Saints | -92 | 10 | 102 | 5-9 |
| 2019 | Miami Dolphins | -92 | 10 | 102 | ? |
What's potentially positive for Miami is these historically bad starts didn't turn into historically bad finishes. The Dolphins share the point differential, exact with points scored and points allowed, with those Saints who finished the 1973 season at 5-9. The 1989 Steelers, coached by Chuck Noll, got into the playoffs at 9-7, had a three-point overtime win in the first round and a one-point loss in the Divisional round. But that turnaround does not appear to be on the table for the 2019 Dolphins.
Miami is in a clear tank, which has been the known plan, but it might be fair to wonder if the pendulum can swing too far for the Dolphins. Even the Browns, who went 0-16 in 2017 were competitive. Their point differential after the first two weeks of the season was just minus-17.
The Dolphins are going to have to be really committed to this tank and know what the long-term plan will be. If Miami is in position to grab a quarterback in the 2020 draft, do they take the shot? Is there enough on this currently bad roster to assemble a passable supporting cast for a rookie quarterback? Or is the goal to follow the Cleveland plan and trade back from a potential high pick and push the quarterback choice another year. Is this franchise really prepared to be this bad for that long?
Those in Miami are going to have a lot of time to get this plan straightened out because this looks like it’s going to be a long season. Just as a quick look ahead, the Dolphins will open as 21-point underdogs in Dallas for Week 3.
3. Quarterback Injuries
Two big quarterback injuries struck in Week 2. Ben Roethlisberger left Pittsburgh’s game against the Seattle Seahawks early with an elbow injury and Drew Brees was forced to leave New Orleans’s game with the Los Angeles Rams after hitting his thumb against Aaron Donald on a pass.
Let’s start with Roethlisberger, who was having a rough game against the Seahawks even before the injury occurred. Roethlisberger was largely inaccurate when on the field Sunday. He totaled 75 passing yards on 15 attempts (5.0 yards per attempt) and wasn’t pushing the ball downfield often. His average pass traveled just 6.7 yards past the line of scrimmage, per Next Gen Stats, and while those short passes produced an expected completion percentage of 70.5%, Roethlisberger completed just 53.3% of his attempts against Seattle. The 17.2% difference was worse than only Josh Rosen in Week 2, a quarterback thrown into a huge deficit against a significantly superior team.
Whether Roethlisberger’s injury is serious or not, the Steelers have an issue at quarterback and with the passing game. Roethlisberger currently sits 30th in ESPN’s QBR, ahead of only Kirk Cousins and Ryan Fitzpatrick, among 32 qualified passers. Mason Rudolph filled in admirably (5.9 YPA, 2 TD,1 INT, 56.0 QBR), but the Steelers could be in even more trouble should they need to rely on the second-year passer for an extended period of time.
The bigger potential injury was to the right thumb of Drew Brees. Brees suffered the injury on just the Saints’ second drive of the game and did not return. He had his thumb wrapped on the sideline and it has been reported he will stay in Los Angeles and visit a specialist on Monday to determine the severity and timeline for return.
Teddy Bridgewater came in relief for Brees and had a shaky outing. Bridgewater completed just 56.7% of his passes for 5.5 yards per attempt with a 10.8 QBR (remember single-game QBR should be viewed as a win probability statistic, so a team with a quarterback who played like Bridgewater would win just 10.8% of the time). Without a threat through the air, the Rams were also able to shut down Alvin Kamara on the ground and on passing plays.
It’s possible Bridgewater could look better with a game plan suited for him and a full week of preparation, but the ceiling of the 1-1 Saints is drastically lowered if Brees must miss a significant amount of time. This is especially true if the New Orleans defense, a unit that started slowly last year but picked it up to finish the season 11th in defensive DVOA, continues to struggle. Even with that improvement, the Saints were third in DVOA against the run but just 22nd against the pass. The pass defense continues to be a problem for a Saints team that just allowed Jared Goff to throw for 10.1 yards per attempt after a poor outing in Week 1.
4. 49ers offense finally clicked
Week 1 was not kind to Kyle Shanahan, Jimmy Garoppolo, and the San Francisco 49ers offense. They got an ugly win over an uglier Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense but the performance left a lot to be desired. That changed almost immediately for the Niners against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2. San Francisco scored a touchdown on its first drive and never really looked back.
How they scored that touchdown was proof the Shanahan system was working. San Francisco ran a “leak” play, which typically sees a quarterback bootleg to one side and a tight end from the front side “leak” back to the opposite side and down a clear sideline as the defense flows toward crossing routes going to the bootleg side. It’s been a Shanahan staple for a while and the tight end throwback has worked for multiple teams and killed many defenses.
But on this play, Shanahan didn’t use a tight end. Instead, he used Marquise Goodwin as a de facto tight end in a tight split and once Goodwin got space, there was no stopping him.
Shanahan isn’t the first to use that variation this year, though. Andy Reid used Sammy Watkins in a similar capacity for a touchdown in Week 1 and the Bengals used it for John Ross. This could be the copycat play of the year.
The offense as a whole was opened up for Garoppolo, who had a much better showing in Week 2 than Week 1 (though an egregious interception was still involved). Garoppolo got to hang in the pocket longer than he did in Week 1 and push the ball further down the field. This was also against a Cincinnati defense that got pressure on 40% of drop backs in Week 1, per Sports Info Solutions, the fourth-highest rate in the league.
| Week | Avg. Time to Throw | Avg. Depth of Target | Tight Window % | YPA | EPA/DB | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.31 | 5.2 | 14.8% | 6.1 | 0.10 | 46% |
| 2 | 2.77 | 8.1 | 4.0% | 11.8 | 0.66 | 59% |
*data per Next Gen Stats and nflscrapR
There was also help on the ground, where Matt Brieda added 121 yards on 12 carries and Raheem Mostert had 83 yards on 13 attempts.
Three NFC West teams sit at 2-0, but the Niners are currently first with a plus-38 point differential. If San Francisco is going to hang in the division with the Rams and Seahawks, the offense is going to have to look more like it did in Week 2 than in the opening week.
5. Coaches get aggressive
A number of coaches got aggressive at the end of games in Week 2 — some good, some bad, some incredibly surprising. Let’s go through a few of the decisions.
- Frank Reich goes for it from his own 35
Up 19-17 with 2:24 to go in the fourth quarter, Frank Reich kept his offense on the field for a 4th-and-1 from the Colts’ own 35-yard line. Jacoby Brissett scrambled for a 7-yard gain on 3rd-and-8 to bring up the 4th-and-1. After Reich called a timeout, he sent the offense back on the field and used Brissett on a QB sneak, an almost automatic play in those situations. The conversion added 8.9% in win probably per the nflscrapR model and moved the Colts from a 64.7% chance to win to a 73.6% chance.
Indianapolis eventually did punt on the drive, but after another three plays, Tennessee’s final two timeouts, and an additional 1:10 taken off the clock. Had the Colts not converted, the Titans would have had a short field, but the Colts still had two timeouts to get the ball back for a final drive, likely only needing a field goal to win.
- Pete Carroll goes for it on fourth to ice the game
Seattle’s final drive of a 28-26 win over Pittsburgh lasted 12 plays and 5:34 minutes, the ideal Pete Carroll-Brian Schottenheimer concoction. The drive was capped off with a decision to go for it on a 4th-and-1 from the Pittsburgh 33-yard line after the two-minute warning. Carroll brought on an extra offensive lineman and sent Chris Carson up the middle for a 2-yard gain. Pittsburgh had to use its final timeout and Seattle was able to kneel to end the game afterward.
Carroll could have opted for a 50-yard field goal from that spot, but the odds of picking up one yard would undoubtedly be higher than converting on a long field goal. The extra three points would be nice, but a five-point lead would have forced the Steelers to be more aggressive on the following drive, needing a touchdown to win the game instead of just a field goal had the conversion attempt failed. It’s a spot where being aggressive yourself helps keep your opponent from being more aggressive to beat you later.
- Doug Marrone and Vic Fangio go for 2 and the win
These situations were incredibly similar. Both the Jaguars and Broncos scored a touchdown to go down by one point with about 30 seconds left on the clock (officially 30 seconds for Jacksonville and 31 for Denver). Both head coaches decided they weren’t going to play for overtime and would go for the win.
Marrone called a handoff to Leonard Fournette, even though Gardner Minshew had outrushed him in the game to that point, and the back was stopped short of the goal line.
Fangio’s decision took a little while to come to fruition. The offense was initially kept on the field for a conversion attempt, but had a delay of game penalty. With the ball pushed back, the kicking team came on for an extra point that was missed, but canceled out because of a defensive offside. That put the ball back to its original spot and the offense came back out on the field.
Denver’s call was to let Joe Flacco throw, a wildly more dangerous option than a run. But the Broncos had Emmanuel Sanders run a quick out from the slot for an easy conversion. Of course the Bears were able to drive (kind of) down the field and win with a 53-yard field goal.
These aggressive go for the win decisions are typically admired, but there is a place where one can be a little too aggressive when going to two, as noted by ESPN’s Brian Burke.
Should have tweeted this live. Same situation applies to the JAX-HOU game. From our internal chat: pic.twitter.com/0rKIaQ91IK
— Brian Burke (@bburkeESPN) September 15, 2019
Both the Texans and Bears had a timeout remaining, which would help on the followup drive. But with Jacksonville already an underdog on the road and Denver watching Flacco and Micthell Trubisky throw the football for nearly 60 minutes of game time, it’s hard to fault either coach for wanting to go for the win when they had the chance.
Jacksonville’s mistake might have been the play call and Denver definitely should have squibbed the ensuing kickoff as Burke suggested, but I doubt either coach regrets the decision to go for it.
6. Arizona, goal to no go
On the subject of bad coaching decisions, Kliff Kingsbury made a few during a 23-17 Arizona Cardinals loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Kingsbury called for three field goals inside Baltimore’s 5-yard line, a trend that continued from his conservative nature near the goal line in the season’s opening week.
We can focus on the decisions to kick the field goal instead of going for touchdowns as a road underdog (one touchdown conversion could have flipped the game) and while those were terrible decisions by a first-year NFL head coach (and we can all agree Arizona shouldn't have kicked any of the three times), the plays that led to those fourth downs were just as troubling, if not more.
On the first two sequences, the ball wasn’t thrown into the end zone until the third down play. Kingbury shied away from the touchdowns on fourth down, but he really didn’t give his team a chance to score on the previous three downs, either.
Field Goal 1
- First down: David Johnson run up the middle for 2 yards
- Second down: Motion screen to Damiere Byrd for 7 yards
- Third down: Play-action rollout with no open options, throwaway
Field Goal 2
- First down: Chase Edmunds run up the middle for 2 yards
- Second down: (after a false start) WR screen to Edmunds for 10 yards
- Third down: Incomplete slot fade to Larry Fitzgerald
Field Goal 3
- First down: Quick slant to Michael Crabtree for 4 yards
- Second down: Incomplete slot fade to Fitzgerald
- Third down: Incomplete slot fade to Fitzgerald
7. Russell Wilson beat the blitz
The Seattle quarterback had an impressive day statistically. He finished with 300 passing yards, three touchdowns, and an EPA per drop back of 0.35. What’s more impressive is how Wilson pulled off this feat. The Pittsburgh defense, long known for its creative pressures, brought the heat on Wilson. Per ESPN Stats & Info, Wilson was blitzed on 63% of his drop backs on Sunday.
All of this caused Wilson to adjust and get the ball out quickly — unbelievably so. Per Next Gen Stats, Wilson’s average time to throw was just 2.26 seconds.
Wilson worked in a mix of hot routes and quick throws to counter the pressure. Tight end Will Dissly was a beneficiary with quick targets up the seam resulting in two touchdowns.
Seattle can have pass protection problems, but if Wilson can recognize the pressure coming before the snap, he can easily adjust. It’s when the line blows a block with four rushers and there is no one open downfield when the Seahawks offense gets into trouble. (It helps when it’s not third and long set up be two unsuccessful runs).
8. Play of the day
Lamar Jackson’s 39-yard touchdown pass to Mark Andrews didn’t have the most innovative design — though it did borrow some college influence — but it helped showcase what the Ravens offense could be by understanding the strengths of its players.
What made the play work and got Andrews open down the sideline, was the pre-snap motion of Marquise Brown (15). Brown motioned from the slot behind Jackson and Mark Ingram. Baltimore has shown this look and thrown the swing pass to the motion man. But this time Brown was just a decoy (with a pump fake) to get Andrews open. Watch the diagram below as 36 and 43 on Arizona flow to Brown and let Andrews escape free.
9. Chart of the Day
A quarterback's passing chart doesn’t get much better than this. The Kansas City Chiefs were held scoreless in the first quarter and then decided to score all the points in the second. Mahomes had 24.6 Expected Points Added through the air in the second quarter alone. Russell Wilson, who we just noted had a good game, totaled 15.6 EPA in four quarters.
All four of Mahomes’s touchdowns traveled at least 20 yards in the air.
10. The Bears have a quarterback problem
Chicago spent a lot of time in the offseason focused on a kicker — and it was a kicker who won the game with a 53-yarder — but the quarterback nearly lost the game on Sunday. Through two weeks, Mitchell Trubisky’s play has been an issue. He was inconsistent and inaccurate against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 and played just as poorly if not worse in Denver. Before the final play to Allen Robinson to set up the field goal, Trubisky had not completed a pass further than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage in the game.
Mitchell Trubisky didn't complete a pass further than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage until the final throw to Allen Robinson pic.twitter.com/ROruPKKlvi
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) September 16, 2019
Per nflscrapR data, he was worth minus-0.02 EPA per drop back in the game with a success rate of just 38%. That’s a bad run game. It’s also not a sustainable way to win games. Through two weeks, Trubisky 28th in Total QBR, a metric he ranked third in last season due to his rushing, not passing. Chicago either needs to get much more out of the current quarterback or the Bears are going to have to look for a new solution sooner than they had hoped.
