The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2024 Football Preview book. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps as well as penalty analysis from Joe Gibbs. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2024 Football Preview.
Penalties are an under-discussed aspect of NFL success and failure. Average teams can become playoff contenders with good discipline, and good teams can become great simply by winning the penalty battle.
Let's look at how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, and Carolina Panthers performed from a penalty perspective in 2023 and where they can improve in 2024.
How Did Penalties Impact the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The Good
- The defense ranked in the bottom third of units surrendering penalties and penalty yardage via passing plays
- The offense was a top-10 beneficiary of automatic first downs via penalties
- The defense surrendered a league-leading 50% of their overall first downs via penalties on less punitive first downs. That is the second consecutive season Tampa led the NFL in this category. Officials know they can't call penalties every play and turn the game into a flag-fest. In theory, committing a defensive penalty on first down lessens the probability of a call being made at a later junction
- A below-average 22% of Tampa Bay’s overall penalties occurred on third down plays. What's noteworthy is only 33% of these penalties were called on their defense
The Bad
- The linebackers and defensive backs accounted for 44.5% of the team's overall penalties. This can be a good or bad thing, depending on the officiating crew. More importantly, the bulk of these penalties did not occur on the aforementioned third downs
- The Buccaneers ranked second for offensive pass interference penalties per game. It's not a high volume infraction but is impactful when it's called.
- The special teams unit was a top-10 penalized unit
The Buccaneers had an above-average roster heading into 2023, but uncertainty at the quarterback position after Tom Brady’s retirement left the team in limbo.
Free agent signing Baker Mayfield had a career year in Tampa Bay, propelling this team to its third consecutive NFC South title.
It raises the question of how influential was Dave Canales in orchestrating Baker Mayfield’s success. Will we see a drop-off similar to the Eagles post Shane Steichen for the Buccaneers in 2024?
The Mayfield versus Bryce Young numbers will be an interesting side-note to the NFC South goings-on in 2024 as Canales shifts his focus from one quarterback to the next.
Tampa Bay retains a lot of high-end talent and is very much in the mix to make it four straight seasons as NFC South champions. But outside of their division bubble, the Buccaneers measure up short versus the elite teams of the NFC.
That said, the Buccaneers remain a strong chance to be in the thick of things for a postseason berth in the 2024 season.
How Did Penalties Impact the New Orleans Saints?
The Good
- The defense ranked in the top five at generating both false starts and offensive holding penalties on opposing offenses in 2023
- The Saints ranked No. 1 in generating offensive penalties per game on opponents
- The defense was a top-five penalized unit surrendering automatic first downs via penalties. However, 68% occurred on less impactful first and second down plays. Only 32% were surrendered on more punitive third down plays
The Bad
- The offense was a top-five penalized unit for both false start and offensive holding. These numbers canceled out the great work done by the defense in these key categories last season. It's unacceptable, particularly in light of the team signing Derek Carr. A veteran quarterback should not have his offense put up these penalty numbers
- The offense was responsible for 77% of the team's pre-snap penalties, above the league average of 68% in this category
- The offense was lackluster as a beneficiary of automatic first downs via penalties, which comes as no surprise to anyone who watched this team last season. New Orleans was risk-averse with Carr at quarterback
- The Saints surrendered an above-average 33% of their penalties in the fourth quarter
The excessive false start and offensive holding infractions from the offense were a disaster and offset the impressive stats from the defense in 2023.
A high volume of offensive holding and false starts will doom most teams but in particular an offense as limited as the Saints were. Those five and ten-yard setbacks are the penalty equivalent of death by a thousand cuts.
The defensive efficiency numbers validate Dennis Allen as a defensive coach locked into his side of the ball.
However, the overall team results underscore his shortcomings as a head coach. The harsh reality is the current set-up in New Orleans will not work.
The Saints won't go marching into the playoffs with Allen and Derek Carr leading the charge. That's despite being in a relatively weak division with by far the best home field advantage of the four teams.
The 2024 season has the makings of another wasted year in New Orleans. Wholesale changes will be required in the offseason to make the Saints a viable Super Bowl contender again.
How Did Penalties Impact the Atlanta Falcons?
The Good
- The Falcons ranked 28th in penalties per game
- The offensive line was responsible for only 23% of the team's overall penalties with limited offensive holding penalties being a key factor in the low percentage
- The defense ranked in the top five in generating offensive holding on opposing offenses
- The defense was a top-10 penalized unit, ranking above average for both defensive holding and defensive pass interference. While it sounds negative, an overwhelming 76% occurred on less impactful first and second down plays
The Bad
- The offense was lackluster in generating automatic first downs via penalties. This comes as no surprise to anyone who watched the risk-averse Atlanta offense in 2023. If Kirk Cousins transfers what he accomplished in Minnesota down to Atlanta, the Falcons can be a top-five beneficiary in this key category
The Falcons enter 2024 in a unique situation with a new head coach and two new quarterbacks. Free agent signing Kirk Cousins was hailed as the missing piece for a talented but underperforming roster.
When the Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick, his presence threw a wrench into the works, creating a potentially combustible situation in Atlanta.
New Falcons head coach Raheem Morris was a trusted confidant of Sean McVay in Los Angeles. It has to be noted that Morris’ previous stints as a head coach were subpar.
Atlanta resides in the weak NFC South, and a soft schedule provides them more leeway than many teams. Remember, similar advantages were touted as key factors for the Falcons' success headed into last season, as well. How did that work out?
The Falcons look good on paper, but they have a brand new 35-year-old quarterback off an Achilles injury leading the team with his highly drafted and ready-to-play successor watching on.
This is being overseen by a new head coach with a 21-38 career record and now in charge of a dysfunctional franchise. A lot of new pieces have to mesh quickly to make this thing work.
The variance in Falcons total wins is greater than most teams in 2024. If they take off early, they can be a potential No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Conversely, the issues we've detailed could derail this team, resulting in another disappointing season. One thing is certain, the Falcons will be one of the more compelling teams to watch in the 2024 NFL season.
How Did Penalties Impact the Carolina Panthers?
The Good
- The defense ranked 28th in surrendering automatic first downs. This is positive but also deceiving as the team played from behind so regularly. The reality is that the defense was rarely put under any serious stress from a desperate opponent looking to make a comeback
- The offense was a top-10 beneficiary of automatic first down penalties. Not surprisingly, the average yards gained per penalty was extremely low. This statistic is skewed in large part due to the simple fact the Panthers trailed in the majority of contests
The Bad
- The offense was responsible for 56% of overall team penalties. While there is no right or wrong percentage in this category, 56% is excessive for an offense ill-equipped to overcome penalty related setbacks
- False starts and offensive holding accounted for 45% of the team's overall penalties
- An above-average 77% of the team's pre-snap penalties were via the offense. This team looked unprepared in 2023, and self-inflicted pre-snap errors were a byproduct of that. Three key categories were responsible for this percentage: false starts, delay of game, and illegal formations
- The defense ranked 31st in generating pre-snap infractions
- The defense was in the bottom five at generating offensive holding on opponents
The Panthers' offensive personnel was not built to overcome any mishaps, so the excessive offensive penalties contributed to dooming a majority of their possessions in 2023.
The obvious fix is to clean up pre-snap infractions, play ahead of the chains, and give yourself a chance to sustain drives.
That brings us to the newest Carolina Panthers head coach. Despite a limited resume, Dave Canales has put together an excellent track record.
He provided the structure and coaching for Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield to excel (by their standards) over the past two seasons. It's worth noting that Canales is the only offensive head coach in the NFC South.
The X-factor is how David Tepper’s ownership style impacts Canales’ management and coaching decisions. It's known that Tepper will sift through data and critique his coach's play calling, adding another layer to an already chaotic situation.
It's potentially a major issue for a rookie coach and a quarterback whose confidence is at an all-time low.
Ownership issues aside, the Canales hire provides hope for Bryce Young to rebound from his disastrous rookie season. Clarity at the most important position is essential for the franchise moving forward.
Wins and losses are almost secondary for Carolina this season, although six to seven wins is a possibility with their improved roster.
Ultimately, success for the Panthers in 2024 will boil down to Young being a viable starting quarterback and the franchise having its foundation for the future in place.
This analysis continues in the 2024 Football Preview
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