This content originally appeared as a newsletter sent by Warren Sharp on Sunday, August 27.

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The NFL preseason wrapped up on Sunday. Camps will end, players will be cut, and 53-man rosters will be finalized.

One of the most important observations once camps end is starting roster health. We've seen some teams deal with injuries this preseason to their starting QB (Joe Burrow), receiving corps (Denver in particular), offensive lines, and more. We'll be out with an article this week to break it all down.

With the exception of tapping a few more Futures that I believe have value now that we know health and have a better idea of roles, I want to share a couple of statistical preseason observations.

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Onto some interesting preseason observations:

Tyjae Spears is a bad, bad man.

He led the NFL preseason with 4.73 yards after contact per rush, #1 out of 54 RBs with over 15 rushes. He also averaged 5.3 YPC (#9 of 54) and averaged +0.09 EPA/rush (#8 of 54).

But it's not just the stats he put up. It's the fact he put up these stats while facing 8+ men in the box on a staggering 41% of his rushes and 7+ box defenders on 82% of his rushes. Both are WELL above the NFL average.

Out of just over 80 QBs, Brock Purdy was the only QB to play in at least 2 preseason games and not attempt a single pass that traveled 15 or more air yards.

The QB with the highest rate of throwing 15+ yards downfield? Rookie Bryce Young. A whopping 38% of his attempts traveled 15+ yards, the highest rate out of 82 QBs with at least 20+ dropbacks.

Here are the NFL teams who did not play their starting QBs this preseason:

  • NFC South: All played
  • NFC North: Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff
  • NFC West: Matthew Stafford
  • NFC East: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott
  • AFC South: Ryan Tannehill
  • AFC North: Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson
  • AFC West: Justin Herbert
  • AFC East: All played

Most of these guys make sense. But it is interesting that the Chiefs played all the way through February to win a Super Bowl and then were starting Patrick Mahomes in games all August.

Meanwhile, the Lions missed the playoffs and Jared Goff didn't play a single preseason snap. They face off a week from Thursday, and there is a massive difference in “live fire” each QB has faced since the end of the 2022 season.

Speaking of which, starting QBs with the most preseason dropbacks:

  • 44 – Sam Howell
  • 37 – Jordan Love
  • 34 – Anthony Richardson
  • 31 – Bryce Young
  • 22 – Russell Wilson
  • 19 – C.J. Stroud
  • 18 – Patrick Mahomes & Josh Allen

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Fantasy Football Players to Avoid

  • Josh Jacobs only ran 21 pass routes on third down all of last season with just one reception, so he still was not a true three-down player despite his high touch totals
  • Over the past 10 years, Jacobs is just the 13th running back to clear 375 touches in a season. Just one of those running backs came back and scored more PPR points per game in the following season. Just three matched their per-game touch totals
  • Going back to 1992, there have been 71 seasons in which a running back has cleared 375 touches. 67.7% of those running backs had a decline in points per game the following season with an average loss of -2.7 points per game. 77.5% of those backs averaged fewer touches per game the next season with an average loss of -3.2 touches per game

» Continue reading Fantasy Football Players to Avoid

NFL Personnel Groupings: How Will Teams Line Up in 2023?

  • The primary goal of preseason games is to evaluate the roster, odds are the coach is looking to watch what guys on their roster could do for them in the season. Try as they might to disguise their objectives, play-callers might have to tell on themselves with personnel groupings in the preseason
  • Through two preseason games, Buffalo has used 12 personnel at a 35% rate on early downs in the first half. That is over 29 percentage points higher than the 5.6% rate they used in 2022
  • On 90.9% of early downs in the first half, the Panthers have been in 11 personnel. That’s well above the NFL average of 60.8%

» Continue reading NFL Personnel Groupings

If you're not ahead you're behind in prep for the season!

Thanks to our partners at Underdog Fantasy, you can now get either the Sharp Fantasy Football Draft Kit or the 2023 Preview Book for just $1!

All you need to do is click the package you want and follow the steps we have laid out for you: