A week before last year’s Super Bowl, the Los Angeles Rams made the Matthew Stafford trade. It was a big swing that the Rams believed would give them a better chance to end up here — hoisting the Lombardi Trophy a year later. Stafford was one piece (obviously a big one) on a roster full of stars built for this moment. When the moment came, the stars came through in a 23-20 win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
Creating Pressure
The biggest star of the game was Aaron Donald. The should-have-been MVP was a force in a game that was designed to completely take him out of it. Cincinnati was aware of the disadvantage along the line and tried to scheme the offense to avoid those matchups deciding the game.
Per TruMedia, 69.7% of the dropbacks by Joe Burrow were under 2.5 seconds. That quick time to throw was an effort to limit what the Rams’ defensive line could do on a given snap. The problem there was the Bengals hamstring themselves a bit by limiting what they could do in routes in order to get the ball out that quickly.
In the first quarter, the Bengals came out almost exclusively in shotgun (91.8% of Burrow’s dropbacks) and 77.8% of Burrow’s pass attempts were within 2.5 seconds. The plan had some logic, but Burrow only completed 44% of his passes with a 46-yard deep shot to Ja’Marr Chase making up 76.7% of his passing yards for the quarter.
That uber-quick game didn’t really have the intended results throughout the game. On dropbacks that were under 2.5 seconds, Burrow went 16-of-23 but averaged just a 3.83 average depth of target, 5.17 yards per attempt, and -0.32 EPA per dropback.
Of course, there were some bigger problems when Burrow tried to stay in the pocket. Per TruMedia/PFF, Burrow was under pressure on 76.5% of his dropbacks that lasted 2.5 seconds or more. ESPN Stats & Info had the Bengals with an 18% Pass Block Win Rate, which was the lowest for a team in a game this season. The biggest mismatch of the Super Bowl lived up to its billing.
Joe Burrow by Dropback Time
data per TruMedia/PFF
| Time to Throw | EPA per Dropback | Comp/Att | aDOT | YPA | Sacks | Pressure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 2.5 seconds | -0.32 | 16/23 | 3.83 | 5.17 | 1 | 20.8% |
| 2.5 seconds or more | -0.10 | 6/10 | 12.6 | 14.4 | 6 | 76.5% |
As the game progressed, the Rams got more aggressive with their pass rush, forcing the Bengals into leaving someone with a one-on-one. On a third-and-3 early in the third quarter, the Bengals had the ball inside the red zone.
The Rams showed a five-man pressure look, which took away the possibility of any double-teams as the Bengals put five players into routes. Linebacker Ernest Brown lined up over the center and looped around the left side after the snap. Defensive tackle Greg Gaines slanted inside to take out the center, which left Donald one-on-one with Hakeem Adeniji. Donald blew through him to Burrow for the sack.
Los Angeles also upped its blitz rate in the second half. After sending an extra rusher just 15.8% of the time in the first half, the Rams sent a blitz on 27.3% of Burrow’s dropbacks in the third and fourth quarters. That strategy started with the 75-yard touchdown to Tee Higgins that opened the third quarter, but after that, the Rams took Burrow down on three of their other five blitzes.
Early in the fourth quarter, the Rams lined up with a five-man front that had Leonard Floyd outside of Von Miller. The Rams brought all five, which got Miller matched up on Adeniji inside. Miller hit an inside spin move that put him perfectly in position for a sack as Burrow tried to step up from pressure all around the pocket.
Behind that pressure, the Rams were ready to cover. Even with a torn pec, safety Eric Weddle played every defensive snap in the game. With the green dot as the defensive playcaller, the Rams were likely to use that as a way to get more defensive backs on the field and that’s what they did. On 27 plays, including 10 in the fourth quarter, the Rams used three safeties with Weddle, Nick Scott, and Taylor Rapp on the field at the same time. Those plays averaged 3.04 yards per play with a 70.4% defensive success rate and included five of the Rams’ seven sacks in the game.
As the Rams started to blitz more often, the Rams flooded some of that coverage into the shallow area to take away some of the quick routes, playing zone on 88.9% of the dropbacks from that personnel package. That gave the defensive front more time to create pressure.
In a way, the Rams pulled a bizarro Bengals. When Cincinnati shifted to get the best of Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game, the Bengals rushed three and dropped eight, hoping Patrick Mahomes would get impatient and make a mistake. The Rams' counter was to bring more pressure and keep speed and coverage on the field to take away the hot routes, and force Burrow to act too quickly or hold on to the ball long enough for pressure to arrive. Arrive it did.
All of this works better with a force like Donald in the middle of everything. Per Next Gen Stats, Donald had a game-high seven pressures against an offense that had specifically schemed around not allowing Donald pressures to happen. And when the Rams needed him most — on the fourth-and-1 on the Bengals’ final drive — he came through with what might be the biggest pressure of his career that sealed the game.
Overcoming The Offense
While the Rams worked their way into making things easier for themselves on defense, it felt like they spent an entire game doing the opposite when they had the ball. Sean McVay was committed to the run game, which just didn’t work at any point. The Rams averaged 1.95 yards per carry and -0.51 EPA per rush on early down runs in the game, per TruMedia.
Those inefficient runs continually set the Los Angeles offense back and there were stretches of the game where the passing offense didn’t have enough juice to make up for it.
That wasn’t the case early in the game, when it looked like the Rams were prepared for the Cincinnati defense. The Rams came into the game knowing the Bengals would likely game plan around defending Cooper Kupp, likely with at least two defenders. The way Los Angeles got around that during the season was to get Odell Beckham in one-on-one situations and that was a big part of the early offensive success.
Beckham only ran 14 routes before a non-contact knee injury knocked him out of the game before halftime, but the midseason addition made a huge impact with 3.71 yards per route run on his two catches for 56 yards. Those plays highlighted the advantage the Rams could exploit in man coverage.
On Beckham’s 17-yard touchdown, the Rams came out in empty with Beckham as the No. 3 receiver on the trips side. Beckham ran a slot wheel/fade under double posts from Van Jefferson and Brycen Hopkins. The Bengals ran their drop-8 coverage with a single-high safety, but the Rams were prepared for that potential man coverage look on third down and Beckham was able to beat slot corner Mike Hilton to the end zone.
Two drives later, the Rams really worked to get Beckham into some space in the middle of the field. The offense again came out in empty and before the snap, both Hopkins and Darrell Henderson motioned in from the outside on each side. After motioning inside, the back and the tight end ran to the flats, which drew the middle of the field defenders. Beckham ran a crossing route from the left side in a Spear concept with Cupp running one from the opposite side. Safety Jessie Bates took Kupp on his route, which left a wide-open lane for Beckham to gain 35 yards.
After Beckham left the game, the Rams didn’t have a ton of answers to beat the Bengals. Beckham’s presence opened things up for the rest of the receivers and with focus from the defense still on Kupp, Stafford had to force some throws into tighter windows. Per Next Gen Stats, just 8.3% of Stafford’s pass attempts were into tight windows when Beckham was on the field. That went up to 28.6% after Beckham left. During the regular season, Stafford had the fifth-lowest rate of tight window throws among quarterbacks at 12.1%. The plan on offense completely shifted.
Rams Offense With & Without Odell Beckham
data per TruMedia
Without Beckham, the Rams tried to work some one-on-one mismatches with that same slot wheel run by both Henderson and Jefferson to mixed results. Even when the offense did get a look that should have worked, there was a missed connection.
On a third-and-4 in the fourth quarter, the Rams were in empty with a trips bunch to the left side. From the inside, Ben Skowronek got the look they wanted with an open out at the sticks, but the receiver had to avoid Jefferson, who tripped off the line and that threw off the timing. The trips side was open because the Bengals had a corner and linebacker on Kupp from the slot on the opposite side.
Cincinnati was able to keep Kupp under control for most of the game. Before the Rams’ final possession, Kupp had been held to just 1.66 yards per route run and he was out-targeted by Van Jefferson (seven to six).
But on that final drive, the Rams leaned heavily on their star receiver. Kupp had as many catches (four) on the final drive as he did in the game up to that point.
Cooper Kupp Production
data per TruMedia
| Possession # | Routes | Yards Per Route Run | Target Share | Targets/Rec | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-11 | 32 | 1.66 | 20.7% | 6/4 | 53 | 1 |
| 12 | 11 | 3.55 | 36.4% | 4/4 | 39 | 1 |
Kupp was huge on multiple plays, including a fourth-and-1 jet sweep that converted from the Rams’ own 30-yard line.
On a second-and-7 from the 46-yard line, Kupp came up with a 22-yard reception on the end of a bananas Stafford throw. Stafford opened a window by baiting safety Vonn Bell to drive on a hitch from Hopkins. As Stafford stared down his tight end, he tossed the ball into an open space that allowed Kupp to have a big reception in the middle of the field.
Then with the ball on the 1-yard line, Kupp had a one-on-one against Eli Apple on the outside and the Rams pulled off a perfect back-shoulder for a touchdown and the lead.
Chips pushed in
The “all-in” approach for the Rams was always overstated from a future-outlook-of-the-roster perspective but it's clear this was a team built to win now and it showed throughout the night.
Overall, Stafford finished the game with 0.10 EPA per dropback and finished the playoffs with 0.26 EPA per dropback. The point of the Stafford trade and the improvement at quarterback was about bringing the high-level plays that could carry an offense. That was clear all season. Even with two interceptions and a shaky stretch after the Beckham injury, Stafford came through with a huge final drive.
(If we can put to rest any more Jared Goff comparisons, his combined playoff EPA per dropback with the Rams was -0.05.)
Miller and Beckham, two midseason acquisitions, both played a big role in the win. Both are scheduled to be free agents, but have shown interest in staying put. The Rams’ homegrown stars like Donald and Kupp had award-worthy regular seasons and shined in the biggest moments of the Super Bowl.
All of the buttons the Rams pushed this season worked out. The idea of building around the stars was to have enough top-tier talent that filling out the roster could be done by intensifying the perfect role players. That worked, too. There was even enough talent was on this roster that injuries to a star in the middle of the Super Bowl did not completely derail the team. There were even enough to counter one of the biggest stars, Jalen Ramsey, having a rough night.
When things are going wrong, it’s nice to have a Stafford or Kupp or Miller or Donald to rely on. Luckily for the Rams, they had them all and the stars could not have shined much brighter for LA.
