I have often said that successfully playing NFL quarterback is the single most difficult occupation on the planet. Think about it. How many humans are there out of 7 billion or so are there that can truly lead a team to a Super Bowl win with teams' rosters as they currently are? I count eight and that includes a couple that have in the past but currently probably cannot. So it's time to take a look at how teams that turned that crazy job over to some rookies.
We all know the backstories. The Arizona Cardinals knew they were going to do so. The Jacksonville Jaguars had no idea they were but chose to do so in a mini-crisis. And who in the world knows exactly what the New York Giants plans were. I am not sure they had a plan at all. We have a small sample size for sure but we do have enough to take give an early season progress report. And that is the key, progress. It is tough for any rookie in the NFL to jump in and light it up. Sometimes when the do it is more of a circumstance of the game itself rather than a reflection of the rookie's potential. I will get to that later.
I came up with my own way to rate these guys based on several analytical metrics (the two biggest being Air Yards to the First Down on passes, and Expected Completion Differential), and just a few good old important numbers like interceptions, fumbles, sacks, and Yards per Attempt. Then I had some very subjective watching of their video.
I assigned a point value to each week for each of the quarterbacks based on the above. I give a little 1 point bonus for the win. That will show where I think they started and will at least assign a value to where they are now in my mind (not that it is hugely important but hey, that is what I like to do and have at least spent more hours than anyone I know except Bill Belichick studying and coaching quarterbacks).
Let's start with Kyler Murray. He had to jump in game 1. Week 1 he played the tale of two halves. At times he looked terrible as he and Kliff Kingsbury were trying to figure things out. Kyler has to learn that you can't do certain things in the NFL like this.
In the second half, more importantly the fourth quarter, he looked much better. On this play (13:46 in 4th), down 24-6, he stands in the pocket and takes one of his few deeper shots. He stands in nicely with good protection even though he couldn't feel like that would be the case. He delivered the ball away from the safety with plenty of loft so Larry Fitzgerald could adjust to it.
They were basically out of the game and he led them back to a tie with the Detroit Lions. I have a tie on my record and it feels really weird to play with all that emotion and then it ends and there is no feeling. But to Murray and the Cardinals, it had to feel like a win. His accuracy was about average. He threw the ball down the field enough to be in the positive air yards to the sticks, and the finish left a great desire to see the weeks to come. I gave him a 4.
Week 2 versus the Baltimore Ravens he got a better score from me in a 4.5. He was a little more accurate, although I think that will always be a little up and down due to the various positions he puts himself in to throw. Some of his score is the fault of his coach and the play calling. They went into the game a more conservative game plan in many ways, or at least game decisions. They played them close and Murray did not throw an interception as he did the week before.
Week 3 versus the Carolina Panther he took a large step backward with his lowest yards per attempt of the season at 4.0 after hitting 8.7 the week before. Even though he had his highest completion percentage of the year, he also threw two picks, took eight sacks, and that lowered him down to almost rock bottom at a 1.5 on my grading scale.
The next week versus the Seattle Seahawks he stayed towards the bottom with another score of 1.5 Murray threw a pick, looked indecisive at times, threw another interception and took four more sacks. Sacks are drive killers and have to be avoided, especially for a quarterback who can move as well as he does. In Weeks 3 and 4, Murray threw the ball far shorter from the first down marker than he had in previous weeks.
Week 5 vs Cincinnati, Murray moved all the way up to a 6. He looked more comfortable (sure they were playing the Bengals) and more in control of the offense. He made his customary off-balance throws that few could make, but really was not asked to do a whole lot. What he was asked to do, though he did well. He did not throw an interception and took one short sack.
Week 6 versus the Atlanta Falcons, like many QBs, Murray had his best day. He had no sacks, no interceptions, 3 TDs passing and his highest yards per attempt of the season. That is what happens when you play one of the worst defenses in the NFL and you are a professional, I guess.
But with that came confidence. That confidence may have been the light bulb really coming on for the rest of the season. I love this play he made off a play-action pass in the first quarter against the Falcons (2:01). He looked down the field, felt pressure, escaped, but kept his eyes downfield and reset his feet to then throw a laser to Larry Fitzgerald in the middle of the field.
His crazy quick release allows him to hold the ball a split second longer than most and to see things and get the ball in places others couldn't. I think Murray now thinks he can throw down the field and even if incomplete, can still overcome that on the series. You could just see it in him. He checked in with an 8 on my card for that game.
This past week against the New York Giants, the Cardinals were able to run the ball much better as Chase Edmonds lit them up for 120 plus yards and some TDs. Murray threw only for 104 yards and lowered his YPA but controlled the game and did what was asked. He finished with a 5 on my card with the help of the win. He also did a very rookie thing at the end of the game by running with the ball with a little over 2 mins left and should have slid down inbounds to get the clock to the 2-minute warning and he ran out of bounds. He knew it immediately after he did it but that's too late and those seconds could have been costly. But they did win and don't look now but Murray has led those Cardinals to three wins in a row.
Gardner Minshew took over as the Jaguars' starting quarterback after Nick Foles got hurt. Minshew has probably thrown as many passes in practice and games as anyone before they took a snap in the NFL since he played under Mike Leach. He stepped right in with a very nice performance against the Kansas City Chiefs.
He was 22/25 passing and threw for 275, 2 TDs and 1 INT on 11 YPA. He was second in the NFL for above-average expected completion percentage to Lamar Jackson in Week 1 (remember that week he had against the Dolphins?). He checked in with a 7 for that performance in the loss. People started anointing him after one game as the long-term solution for the Jags or some other team.
Week 2 he faced off with the Houston Texans and his performance took a downturn. He got worse in every category I mentioned above except he didn't throw a pick. He took four drive killers and they lost 13-12. He graded out with a 4 on my card.
Week 3 was a little better in a win in a terrible game for viewing versus the Tennessee Titans. But Minshew did what was asked and did not throw a pick or take a sack and they won the game 20-7. His accuracy was down so I gave him a 5. To his credit, Minshew looked like he was gaining confidence, which QBs tend to do when they do not get pressured a lot.
Week 4, he gained the fame he had in college back by a couple of crazy plays versus Denver in a 26-24 win at Denver. The craziest occurred when the Jags were down 17-6 late in the third quarter (4:46). Minshew felt the pocket collapse, then he had to step back to avoid a sack, then up, then left, and was still able to keep his eyes up and find an open receiver. It was truly one of the more exciting plays of the whole NFL weekend.
He threw a couple of TD passes but took five sacks and Leonard Fournette ran for a million yards to help save them. He really played average but that one play stood out to everyone and Minshewmania was back. But it was not back with me and he earned a 4.5 with the W.
Week 5 versus Carolina he threw for a bunch of yards (374), threw a couple of TD passes, and took care of the football as well as stayed sack free. He was leveled off on his accuracy some and it is way down from Week 1, even with all those yards. But they got the win and he got another 4.5.
Week 6 versus the Saints, he looked like the other QBs that have faced the Saints. As the QB pressure went up, accuracy down, decision-making down, yards down, interceptions up, sacks up. And the Jags eked out 6 points in a loss. Minshew checked in with a 1 on my card.
Week 7 looked promising with those Bengals but Minshew completed only 46.9% of his passes on the way to a terrible day accuracy-wise and looked uncomfortable with the plan that day. He took a couple of sacks and missed some passes he has to hit that easily could have made the game a complete route due to the timing.
Here is one of the easy ones that showed me he still has a ways to go. Midway through the first quarter, Minshew had an easy presnap read based on leverage of the linebacker — this should be an easy slant to TE Seth DeValve. Minshew pumped, hesitated, didn't reset, threw late and off his back foot and threw high and behind and it easily could have been picked off.
He took a sack the next play. He checked in with a 2.5 score and I see him trending down as we move along and teams begin to get some video on him to learn how to defend him and force him into the situations that he doesn't do well.
Daniel Jones might be the most interesting of all so far. He threw a handful of passes in the Dallas Cowboys game, but then waited and got the start Week 3 versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He had a great start with 336 yards, 2 TDs, and no picks. But he had five sacks, which concerned me. He thinks he can escape when he can't and he holds the ball too long when the throw is there. That is either a lack of confidence or lack of knowledge. But overall, I gave him a 7.5 for his starting debut.
Whatever the reason is for holding the ball, that has to be fixed. It showed the next week against the Washington Redskins. He still got the win but threw two interceptions, both on late balls and on back to back passes.
On the first one, he does the classic stare down of Sterling Shepard, and he is late with the ball.
In the second, he is simply late and throws the ball behind Shepard.
He got the win, though, and took no sacks and played liked they needed to against the sad Redskins and graded out as a 6.5 for me.
The next week, Jones took a big step backward, as he had only 4.8 YPA and an interception against the Minnesota Vikings. He went down in accuracy as well and this sure did not look good as he took four drive-killing sacks. He graded out with a 3.5 for me.
Going into Week 6 vs the New England Patriots, that did not foretell of success. Jones's graph is starting now to look like the Wild Eagle Roller Coaster at the state fair, where it takes the nose dive straight down. He only took one sack, but threw three interceptions and completed less than half his passes. He looked bewildered but then again, the Pats defense has done that to every quarterback they have faced. I gave him a 2.0 and that may have been generous.
Against the Arizona Cardinals at home Week 7 would have been a great time to come back out of death valley on my graph. I mean, it is the Cardinals, and you are at home. Jones threw an interception, took eight sacks, and averaged 6.4 YPA. He sank to a 1.5 on my grading scale. I said he might be the most interesting because, after the Tampa Bay game, the fortune-tellers were out in the media spreading the word that he might have been exactly what the Giants needed. Well, not only were they wrong on that because they need a bunch of things but now it looks like they were a little quick to jump the gun on Jones's success.
Right now, Daniel Jones is a very rough draft of what they need him to be. He is the only one of the three “Young Guns” to get worse each week, in my humble opinion.
For the record, my grades of each quarterback are as follows in chronological order for each and my summary follows each.
Kyler Murray: 4 – 4.5 – 1.5 – 1.5 – 6 – 8 – 5
Murray is in the most difficult spot as his offensive line is the worst and his head coach is new at the NFL game. They are both working to try to figure it out but each one can cost the other slower progress than if they had an experienced person helping. I do think Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray both will figure it out sooner than later and be able to have a serviceable offense in the near future if they do not already.
Murray shows flashes of brilliance and confidence but also youth. As soon as he crosses that line of fewer mistakes than he does, great plays, the Cardinals will win more than they lose. Murray's super quick release will help him be able to make a few mistakes or be later than other QBs. If his accuracy from different throwing positions is as good as it looks, watch out when he ever does get a good offensive line. I do think the Arizona Cardinals will have one really nice upset over someone before the season is over. Don't make me say over San Francisco, but maybe.
Gardner Minshew: 7 – 4 – 5 – 4.5 – 4.5 – 1 – 2.5
I was skeptical of him because I am a coach that doesn't like the nonsense he brings with him. But if anyone ever had the upbringing to be a straight passer, it is him. I am really worried because after his first 3 games, he was completing over 73% of his passes, but the last few, he is in the mid-50s. You can't win with that percentage, especially when you are not throwing the ball down the field a ton. He has the capacity to be one of the more accurate passers in the league, I believe. But if you are hesitant in the NFL, it doesn't matter. Minshew has a flair off the field, but if that doesn't turn into more production on it to end the year so he can get a job next year, I see this being a slow death for the Jaguars.
Daniel Jones – 7.5 – 6.5 – 3.5 – 2 – 1.5
Just look at those grades. He started in the penthouse and ended in the outhouse. The good news, or maybe bad news if he continues in this line, is that he still has over half the season left. But the steady downward progression does not look as if he is picking anything up along the way like you would think normally someone would that graduated from Duke and was trained by Peyton Manning's QB guru.
He has to think pocket first, escape second, and run the ball as a last resort. I think right now he is thinking, look down at the protection and make sure I have time, look up and find my progression, and… IT”S TOO LATE! It will take a major overhaul of this young man to give the Giants hope going into next year.
All three of these rookie quarterbacks do provide for some exciting moments and their teams are in for some emotional roller coasters.