With 2023 NFL training camps on the horizon, we’re starting to get an idea of how 2023 NFL draft classes will impact each roster this season.
Let's look at the Houston Texans, breaking down the most likely instant-impact rookies from each class, while also providing some insight into why certain early picks may not see the field.
These insights are an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 500+ page book “2023 Football Preview” which is now available for download.
In the book, you can find a comprehensive breakdown of the rookie class for all 32 NFL teams by draft guru Ryan McCrystal.
Who are the Houston Texans rookies?
- C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State | Round 1, Pick 2
- Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama | Round 1, Pick 3
- Juice Scruggs, C, Penn State | Round 2, Pick 62
- Tank Dell, WR, Houston | Round 3, Pick 69
- Dylan Horton, EDGE, TCU | Round 4, Pick 109
- Henry To'oTo'o, LB, Alabama | Round 5, Pick 167
- Jarrett Patterson, C, Notre Dame | Round 6, Pick 201
- Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Iowa State | Round 6, Pick 205
- Brandon Hill, S, Pitt | Round 7, Pick 248
Houston Texans Draft Class Grade:
The Texans received a B- rookie class draft grade from PFF, a B from ESPN, and an A- from NFL Network.
Which Texans Rookies Will Make An Impact?
The Texans landed the quarterback of their present and future in C.J. Stroud (first round). Given his ability to process from the pocket, Stroud should be ready to take over from Davis Mills immediately.
Stroud’s strength is his accuracy, which he maintains at all levels of the field. Based on route-adjusted metrics, Stroud generated an on-target rate 5.2% above expected in 2022, the seventh highest rate among Power Five quarterbacks.
The trade up for Will Anderson Jr. (first round) was aggressive and potentially reckless. Anderson will be expected to immediately produce as Houston’s most dangerous edge rusher, but he’ll need to adjust to a new scheme.
Last year in San Francisco, DeMeco Ryans used a four-man front on 98% of their plays, which will require Anderson to play in a three-point stance.
At Alabama, Anderson lined up in a three-point stance on just 41% of his snaps while generating a 12% pressure rate on those plays. Anderson was dramatically more effective in a two-point stance, generating an 18% pressure rate.
Juice Scruggs (second round) will challenge incumbent Scott Quessenberry for the starting job at center. Scruggs was inconsistent at Penn State, lacking the functional strength to hold up against more powerful interior lineman.
However, he is now three years removed from back surgery following a car accident. Perhaps he’s still regaining strength and could be further developed in Houston.
Tank Dell (third round) is a diminutive gadget receiver who lacks the size or physical strength to carve out a significant role. However, he does have the after-catch ability this coaching staff covets. Over the last two seasons, Dell generated 25% more yards after the catch than expected based on route-adjusted metrics.
Dell will be joined by Xavier Hutchinson (sixth round), who could also compete for snaps in the slot. Hutchinson struggled in 2022, but he generated 17.2% more yards after the catch than expected in the previous two seasons with Brock Purdy as his quarterback.
Certain members of this staff scouted Purdy extensively while in San Francisco, so they’re well aware of what Hutchinson is capable of in a more efficient offense. Hutchinson should compete with Dell and Robert Woods for snaps in the slot.
Like Anderson, Dylan Horton (fourth round) will also be adjusting to a new scheme after experiencing a breakout year as a defensive end in a 3-3-5 scheme at TCU.
Horton did not test particularly well at the Combine but does have ideal length for the edge. He’ll be a developmental prospect, likely buried on the depth chart behind Anderson, Jerry Hughes, Jonathan Greenard, and others early in his career.
Like his former boss in New England, Nick Caserio loves Alabama prospects and added his fourth in the last two years in Henry To'oTo'o (fifth round).
To'oTo'o is an intelligent off-ball linebacker who started for two years at Tennessee and two at Alabama. Despite the high football IQ, To'oTo'o lacks the ideal athletic traits, especially considering his below-average size.
Jarrett Patterson (sixth round) spent most of his career at center at Notre Dame but has starting experience at guard as well. There’s no path to a starting job for the foreseeable future, but he’ll provide depth along the interior offensive line.
Brandon Hill (seventh round) has similar traits to Jalen Pitre as safeties who excel playing in the box despite size limitations. Though Hill has limited special teams experience, he’ll need to carve out a role there to earn a roster spot.
Due to the additions of Stroud and Anderson, this is potentially a franchise-altering draft class for the Texans.
However, there was limited impact talent added throughout the rest of the draft, and by parting with their 2024 first-round pick, the Texans put a huge amount of pressure on both Stroud and Anderson to transform their respective sides of the ball.
