1st & 10: Saints Over Bucs, Mike White, Patriots vs Justin Herbert & More From Week 8

Week 8 was weird. It feels like we say that every week about Sunday's slate of games, but this one definitely deserves that label.

1. The Saints Get To Brady

Just as we all expected, Trevor Siemian outdueled Tom Brady. That, of course, isn’t necessarily true. Siemian came in and filled in admirably for Jameis Winston, who was lost of the game and likely the year with what looks like a torn ACL. Siemian was fine, 0.05 EPA per drropback, according to rbsdm.com, with just 5.5 yards per attempt. But the unit that really stepped up was the New Orleans defense.

The Saints entered Week 8 third in defensive DVOA, though even with opponent adjustments, the schedule to this point had not been overwhelmingly difficult — only the 22nd hardest per Football Outsiders. But New Orleans had still found success as a man-heavy defense. That’s tough to play against an offense like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because of how many playmakers the Bucs can trot out and that almost got the Saints in trouble early on in the game.

With Marshon Lattimore on Mike Evans for nearly 75% of his routes, the Buccaneers made an early effort to get Chris Godwin involved in the slot and it was a go-to on third down. On Tampa Bay’s second drive of the game, the Bucs faced a third-and-6 from the Saints’ 40-yard line. Tampa Bay had Godwin condensed with Tyler Johnson to the right. With Rob Gronkowski motioning that way, Godwin faked a quick hitch and kept moving for a shallow crossing route. The initial move froze C.J. Gardner-Johnson and gave Godwin about 4.5 yards of separation at the catch point for a 25-yard reception.

 

 

Four plays later, the Buccaneers faced a third-and-7 from the New Orleans 12-yard line. Tampa Bay brought Evans into the slot and stacked him with Godwin. As Evans ran a vertical route toward the end zone, Godwin was able to run his route underneath with an open lane to the end zone.

 

 

Godwin still had himself a day — eight catches for 140 yards and the touchdown on 12 targets — and even Brady still passes for 9.4 yards per attempt, but it was the negative plays the Saints were eventually able to force that cost the Buccaneers.

On a third-and-7 at the Saints’ 31-yard line midway through the second quarter, New Orleans came out in a dime package with two linebackers and three linemen. With only three defensive linemen on the field against an empty set, the Saints rushed just three, No team has rushed three more than the Saints this season at 22% of pass plays, per Sports Info Solutions. But despite the lack of rushers, both Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport pushed their way through the tackles. Jordan knocked the ball loose and it was recovered by David Onyemata, in his first 2021 game back from a suspension.

 

 

New Orleans kicked a field goal on the next drive to go up 10-7 but hit a bigger blow when Tampa Bay got the ball back. On a first-and-10 at midfield out of the two-minute warning, the Saints again came out in a dime package against an 11 personnel set from the Buccaneers. This time, New Orleans had just one linebacker on the field with four defensive linemen. All five of those players rushed while the Saints played man with a single-high safety behind it.

Gardner-Johnson was matched up with Tyler Johnson as the middle receiver in a trips set but he kept his eye on the quarterback. As Chris Godwin came out of his break, Gardner-Johnson left his man and was in perfect position for an interception. The Saints scored on the next drive to go up 16-7 at the half.

 

 

The game was eventually sealed with another interception, this time by P.J. Williams. On a second-and-10 with under a minute and a half remaining, the Saints again had a dime personnel package with three linemen and a two-high look behind it. The Saints rushed five — the three linemen and two linebackers — and as Brady tried to find Godwin down the field, Williams broke on the route for an interception that was returned for a touchdown.

 

 

The question for the Saints now becomes what will happen on offense. New Orleans sits at 5-2 in a wild card spot and a half-game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South. For was well as Siemian played as a fill-in, it would be hard to ask that of him and an offense that featured catches from Kevin White, Alex Armah, and Garrett Griffin (all who made their first on-field contributions in years) for the rest of the season.

Taysom Hill is reportedly expected back, but we’ve seen that offense too. A call to Philip Rivers could also be in the cards. On top of that, a Michael Thomas return should be on the horizon. With Winston, the Saints weren’t throwing often, but they were efficient when they did. That dynamic will now have to shift as New Orleans works out a new plan and new quarterback on offense. They have a defense that should be good enough to help them out, but the ceiling of this team took a significant hit on Sunday afternoon.

2. MIKE WHITE

The biggest backup quarterback triumph came from Mike White and the New York Jets’ 34-31 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. White threw for a week-leading 405 yards as he filled in for rookie Zach Wilson, whose season-high was 297.

White’s biggest accomplishment might have been the proof of concept for offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur and an offense that had struggled through much of the season with the No. 2 overall pick under center. LaFleur was brought to the Jets with head coach Robert Saleh after years working under Kyle Shanahan. That Shanahan offense was supposed to translate to the Jets but in the early part of the season, the easy answers and schemed openings never fully materialized. They were there on Sunday.

According to Next Gen Stats, White had the highest expected completion percentage of the week at 73.3%. White still had a +8.9% completion percentage over expectation but those easy throws haven’t been in the offense for Wilson. Part of that came from a low aDOT that heavily involved running backs in the passing game. White’s average pass only traveled 4.1 yards past the line of scrimmage. With Wilson, the Jets have used a more vertical attack. Compare White’s Week 8 to Wilson’s first full five games as a starter.

Zach Wilson vs Mike White Starts, 2021

White finished with 0.16 EPA per dropback but a QBR of just 54.2, due in part to two interceptions thrown.

As surprising as White’s performance was, the most shocking development from this game might have been Robert Saleh responding with “anything is possible” when asked about the potential of White as the long-term answer at quarterback.

White exceeded all expectations, but he thrived in an offense that has historically been able to lift up limited quarterbacks. Per Next Gen Stats, 28 of White’s 45 attempts came between 0-9 air yards. On those throws, White completed 24 for 263 yards. The biggest question might be why the offense was structured so much better for White to hide any mistakes while Wilson has been asked to do more with pushing the ball down the field. 

The Jets aren’t going to want to build an offense out of a four-yard aDOT regardless of the quarterback but they could use the next few weeks to figure out some easier throws that could be added into the offense for Wilson when he returns. That is likely the best thing for the future of the offense rather than creating a quarterback controversy as a motivation tactic.

3. The Patriots Get To Herbert Again

For the second-straight season, the New England Patriots figured out how to slow down Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. The Patriots went into Los Angeles as 3.5-point underdogs and came away with a 27-24 victory.

The Patriots spent much of the game giving Herbert different looks on defense. Take this three-play sequence from the first quarter. On a first-and-10, the Patriots rush five by bringing two off-ball linebackers and dropping Matt Judon into coverage. The pocket closes in just enough that Herbert’s pass attempt is tipped. Then on second down, the Chargers try to run play-action but Judon is left unblocked and chased down Herbert for a sack. On third down, the Patriots rush four and stunt Judon, who is able to get pressure up the middle and force Herbert to scramble on third-and-long.

 

 

New England was constantly shifting the look of the defense and Herbert admitted after the game those looks threw him off. Specifically, he noted the amount of zone and two-high coverages the Patriots ran in the game. Entering Week 8, the Patriots had the third-highest rate of showing single-high pre-snap, the highest rate of single-high post-snap coverages, and the third-highest rate of man coverage in the league, per SIS. 

As was the case last season, Herbert couldn’t always tell where the pressure would come from. On a third-and-8 in the third quarter, the Patriots showed pressure with five on the line and Dont’a Hightower in the right A-gap but at the snap, they dropped him out and sent Myles Bryant on a slot blitz from the left. Austin Ekeler couldn’t react to the late blitz in time and Herbert was forced from the pocket for an incompletion.

 

 

But even with the disguises and forcing two bad interceptions, the Chargers still outgained the Patriots 6.4 yards per play to 4.7. New England had just enough success on the ground against the league’s worst run defense while the passing offense continued to take what it could get. Mac Jones averaged 0.00 EPA per dropback with a 44% success rate, per rbsdm.com. There was success on early downs (0.19 EPA per play) but third downs killed the offense. Jones had a -11.7% completion percentage over expectation in the game, per Next Gen Stats.

He did have one deep pass, a 44-yard gain to Nelson Agholor, and a 33-yard intermediate catch-and-run to Hunter Henry but again the offense lacked explosive passing plays. Every week a little more gets added to the New England offense but it’s still not fully formed as an offense that can consistently take advantage of opposing defenses. 

This might be an offense with a ceiling that maxes out at fine. At its best, that could work on days when Jones is super efficient and the ball can keep moving. Fine might also work if the defense can continue playing at a high level. That’s not a given, either. That Patriots came into the game ranked 14th in defensive DVOA with the league’s easiest schedule. At 4-4, New England can find itself back in the playoff picture as each side of the ball figures out its strengths for the remainder of the season.

4. Titans of the AFC South

At 6-2, the Tennessee Titans might already have the AFC South locked up. A 34-31 lead over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 8 gave Tennessee a three-game lead in the division. The Titans haven’t had to do much to get there. Even in the game against the Colts, they just had to wait long enough for Indianapolis to make their mistakes.

Over the course of the past few weeks, the Titans have gotten back to their formula from the previous two seasons. Derrick Henry has run a lot but even when’s he’s not efficient, the play-action game is there to carry the offense. Henry had 28 carries for just 68 yards in the game against the league’s top run defense. 

That play-action game has gotten A.J. Brown more involved and he’s developed into the type of receiver who can carry a passing game. That was the case on Sunday as Brown turned 11 targets in 155 yards and a touchdown. Brown had a 55-yard catch and run on an out of play-action in the second quarter.

While the Titans’ defense might not be good, the unit has been able to make some splash plays that have greatly helped the team. Getting pressure on Carson Wentz is an easy way to force a mistake and the Titans were able to do that a few times in this game. Late in a tie game in the fourth quarter, the Titans forced Wentz into one of the worst interceptions you’ll see, which resulted in a pick-six.

 

 

Then in overtime, Wentz threw another bad pick into a nonexistent window as Kevin Byard rotated from the right hash to a single-high look to breaking on a pass intended for Michael Pittman on a deep crosser.

 

 

The Titans are nearly guaranteed a playoff spot but the more interesting piece to follow is where the Colts believe they are as a franchise. Wentz has been good in perfect situations this season and has fallen apart under pressure. Three games back in the division, the Colts are unlikely playoff contenders at 3-5. At 75% of the season’s snaps, the Colts will have to give the Eagles their first-round pick. So far, Wentz has played 99% of the Colts’ offensive snaps.

Indianapolis is thinking about that now, the question is when does it become publicly clear that pick is in play? 

5. The Buffalo Defense and Miami Offense Hold Down Tua

The offense of the Buffalo Bills has yet to find the stride it hit during the 2020 season. For much of the 23-11 win over the Miami Dolphins, the Bills struggled to consistently move the ball. Josh Allen only finished with 5.9 yards per attempt and a QBR of 45.3.

As has been the case all season, the defense played well enough to weather through some of the offensive struggles. The Bills found a mix between having a good defensive scheme and meeting a terrible offensive one. Miami’s offense has struggled to do much of anything this season and that’s almost by design.

The Dolphins want to spam RPOs and that leads to a ton of short passes. Tua Tagovailoa’s average depth of target was 6.9 in this game but early on, the Dolphins took not shots down the field and only worked those short slants off RPOs. Despite that low aDOT, Tagovailoa still threw 25.6% of his pass attempts into tight windows, according to Next Gen Stats. The Bills were able to sit on those routes to cut them off and they could leave their safeties back just in case there was a deep pass.

Tagovailoa finished the week with the lowest expected completion percentage among quarterbacks (58%). That’s a figure reserved for offenses taking contested deep shots any chance they can — that’s not the Dolphins’ offense. Buffalo finished with five passes defensed in the game and three came from defensive linemen. Still, Tagovailoa finished with a QBR of 67.9, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the powerful Buffalo defense. 

The Bills now sit at 5-2 and still have the league’s best point differential. Like other teams we’ve discussed today, Buffalo has some breathing room set by a defense that can allow the offense to get back on track. That’s fine on top of a crazy close conference, and the Bills luck out with some scheduling. They’ll face the Jaguars, Jets, and Colts over the next three weeks. Buffalo should hope some kinks get worked out there before a stretch against the Saints, Patriots, Buccaneers, and Panthers.

6. It was a good day for the Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens didn’t play in Week 8 but they were one of the biggest winners. The Bengals loss to the Jets certainly helped atop the division while the Steelers and Browns played a slogfest that shouldn’t put fear into many upcoming opponents.

Ben Roethlisberger averaged 7.8 yards per attempt and 0.13 EPA per dropback but also finished with a QBR of 37.8 and a success rate of 36%. That passing game still isn’t designed to function well in the dropback game. Roethlisberger was 0-for-3 on passes that traveled at least 20 yards in the air and was so rattled by pressure, he checked down on a two-point conversion attempt from the 12-yard line.

Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield was inconsistent in his return from injury. Mayfield has the sixth-highest expected completion percentage on the week, but he fell 5.9% below that mark, per Next Gen Stats. Some of that came from receivers who were not able to hang on to passes, but receiver issues appear to be a feature in the Cleveland offense, not a bug. 

At 5-2, the Ravens now have a half-game lead in the division though with the worst team at 4-4, it’s also one of the closer divisions from top-to-bottom.  

7. Stephon Gilmore vs Kyle Pitts

There were few things of note in a 19-13 Carolina Panthers win over the Atlanta Falcons, but one aspect did stand out. In Stephon Gilmore’s first game off PUP in 2021, he was used often on Kyle Pitts when the tight end played outside or in the slot, especially near the end of a close game.

Gilmore was called once for DPI on Pitts, but there was also close coverage on a deep ball down the sideline in the fourth quarter and an interception in press coverage where Gilmore was able to get underneath Pitts’s route with under two minutes left in the game.

 

 

This could be fascinating for both teams in how they move forward. If Gilmore can be a versatile piece around the defense in charge of stopping the opponent’s best player, that’s a nice addition for a Panthers defense that could use the quality in the secondary after losing Jaycee Horn. For the Falcons, this could be a preview of how defenses will treat Pitts after his breakout game and especially if they will be without Calvin Ridley for some time. 

8. Chart of the day

13 of Geno Smith’s 24 pass attempts went to Tyler Lockett. Those resulted in 12 catches for 142 yards. Lockett was always open against the Jacksonville defense. 

9. Play of the day

 

Justin Fields had another uneven day as a passer, but again a game in which the signs of promise were there as the offense opened up a bit more. Fields had 103 yards on the ground in the game. The highlight, though, was this scramble for a 22-yard touchdown on a fourth-and-1 in the fourth quarter. 

10. Sean McVay Tries Fourth Downs

The Los Angeles Rams won a not-as-close-as-the-score 38-22 game against the Houston Texans. Early on in the game, Sean McVay tried two fourth down conversion attempts. It’s possible since there was really no downside to turning the ball back over to the Texans, McVay was able to test out being more aggressive in those situations. The Rams officially went 0-1 but drew a defensive holding that eventually resulted in a touchdown on the other.

Matthew Stafford appeared to be in favor of the aggression and if that’s a tool the Rams can add, especially with how well McVay can design plays for condensed areas and short yardage, the offense can be even more dangerous.