Warren Sharp Says These 7 Teams Will Improve in the Red Zone

This content originally appeared as a newsletter sent by Warren Sharp on Monday, Aug 1st.

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Hundreds of you replied that you wanted more of my analysis in these newsletters, so let's start here: the rules are pro-offense.

And yet we’re seeing very few explosive plays. We’re seeing league-wide lows in big touchdown plays.

That’s because defenses are playing to prevent such explosive plays and forcing offenses to matriculate the ball downfield.

Thus, more TDs need to be scored from inside the red zone.

Some teams were great outside the red zone but struggled inside the red zone. They could regress this year and improve in total scoring, which would help everything from their win total to their player props to their player’s fantasy production.

So which offenses were SOLID offensively outside the red zone but struggled inside the red zone last year?

Warren Sharp's top-7 teams most likely to improve inside the red zone in 2023:

Baltimore Ravens – #27 inside the red zone, #17 outside the red zone
Atlanta Falcons – #17 inside the red zone, #10 outside the red zone
Green Bay Packers – #26 inside the red zone, #11 outside the red zone
Jacksonville Jaguars – #21 inside the red zone, #7 outside the red zone
Cleveland Browns – #20 inside the red zone, #14 outside the red zone
Seattle Seahawks – #25 inside the red zone, #12 outside the red zone
San Francisco 49ers – #18 inside the red zone, #4 outside the red zone

Did you know that last year, Deshaun Watson completed just 8% of his passes that were thrown into the end zone?

That was the worst red zone completion rate for any NFL QB with over 12 attempts IN THE LAST DECADE!

And Jacoby Brissett was at 29%, which was still well below the NFL average of 33%.

Baltimore scored touchdowns on just 29% of drives that crossed midfield. That was 6th worst in the NFL. And they ranked 28th in third down conversion rate in the red zone.

Seattle ranked 30th in play success rate inside the red zone and tried to run too often despite ranking a terrible #31 in rushing success.

I'd expect them to pass more frequently inside the red zone with their new WR weapons and generate more efficiency from these attempts.

In the coming days, I’ll have more on why I think these specific offenses will improve inside the red zone and what it means for their teams and fantasy players in 2023.

If you're not ahead you're behind in prep for the season!

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Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Football Preview 2023

Mike McCarthy says he wants to “run the damn ball,” but the Cowboys already had the seventh-highest run rate in neutral situations last season and were 25th in pass rate over expected
Despite a successful year on offense in which the Cowboys were sixth in EPA per play after Dak Prescott returned from his injury, Dallas decided to move on from Kellen Moore after the season. Brian Schottenheimer will take over as offensive coordinator, but Mike McCarthy is expected to call the plays. That might be a concern moving forward
Prescott did put the ball in danger more often than earlier in his career – a 3.8% turnover-worthy play rate last year against his 3.0% career average via PFF – but his 17-interception total including the playoffs was likely inflated

» Continue reading our Cowboys Fantasy Football Preview

Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Football Preview

Kirk Cousins led qualifying quarterbacks in fourth-quarter fantasy points per game. He was the QB23 per game in the first three quarters
While they finished top 10 in points and total offense because of how many plays they ran, the Vikings were more middle of the pack in efficiency. Their running game was even worse, ranking 29th in EPA per rush
Minnesota averaged 146.5 yards per offensive touchdown in the first three quarters of games of last season and just 92.3 yards per touchdown in the fourth quarter, in which they led the NFL with 19 touchdowns

» Continue reading our Vikings Fantasy Football Preview

Quarterback Stats That Matter for Fantasy Football:

Since 2012, the top-12 weekly scorers at quarterback averaged 2.4 passing touchdowns during their weeks as a QB1 scorer while top-six scorers averaged 2.9 passing scores
Since the NFL merger in 1970, there have been 162 seasons in which a quarterback has started at least eight games and posted a touchdown rate of 6.0% or higher. Out of those 162 seasons, just 18 of them matched their touchdown rate in the following season
Patrick Mahomes is an absolute demon and the best quarterback we have in the game. He led the NFL in passing touchdown rate last season for the second time in his career at 6.3%

» Continue reading QB Stats that matter for Fantasy

2023 NFL MVP Odds:

Joe Burrow is the favorite to win the 2023 NFL MVP at +600 odds. Followed by Patrick Mahomes (+600), Josh Allen (+750), Justin Herbert (+900), Jalen Hurts (+1100), and Lamar Jackson (+1400)
The last 10 winners of the NFL MVP award have been quarterbacks
Since 2001, every NFL MVP winner was on a team that won at least 11 games. Adrian Peterson’s MVP season was the only exception, with the Vikings winning 10 games in 2012

» Complete NFL MVP Odds & Best Bets

NFL Power Rankings: Early Training Camp

#1 – Kansas City Chiefs: Despite losing Orlando Brown in free agency, the Chiefs were able to reload along the offensive line. Wide receiver remains a trouble spot, especially with Kadarius Toney already suffering an injury, but having Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce papers over a lot of cracks on offense.

#9 – Miami Dolphins: the Dolphins appear to have hit on their young head coach, have a dynamic pair at wide receiver, and boast one of the most talented defenses in the league even after losing Jalen Ramsey to a knee injury early in camp. This is an organization ready to win now even in a tough division.

?? – The Jets managing to win seven games last season with their quarterback situation is almost a miracle. Now that Aaron Rodgers has been added to the mix with Garrett Wilson and Robert Saleh’s defense, the excitement around this team is understandable.

» Complete NFL Power Rankings for Every Team

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