Monday Night Football has a big game coming. It's big for a couple of reasons. First, Sam Darnold is back and after beating the Dallas Cowboys last week, hopes are high for the Jets. Second, a couple more wins by the Patriots and it will be an almost insurmountable task for any team to be able to catch them. That means the road to the Super Bowl for the AFC will go through Foxboro. No one wants to go there in the playoffs, especially in the AFC Championship Game.
There are a number of things to watch in what could be an interesting divisional matchup.
Let's start with the obvious. The Patriots have won seven games in a row vs the Jets since 2016. The average score during that run is 30-10. There is no doubt the Pats win, but I guess the question for some of you is, will they win by 10?
So let's look at this particular version of both teams. Let's start with the Jets offense against the New England defense. Since 1986, as far as Football Outsiders' DVOA currently goes back, New England currently has the second-best defense in the NFL through six games.
Here's the updated list of best defenses ever tracked by DVOA through six games (1986-2019). Opponent adjustments are included. #GoPats #GoNiners pic.twitter.com/xMghtoEv35
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@FO_ASchatz) October 21, 2019
To give you some comparison, their number is -47% (negative on defense is the desire). Compare that to the midlevel of the NFL this season (which happens to be the Jets at 16th with a -1%). To give you a couple of others to compare that to, Baltimore has a ranking of 22nd and a positive-2.4% and the vaunted Dallas Cowboys defense that held the Eagles to 10 points last night came into the week rank 25th at 8.2%.
NEGATIVE 47%. That is unbelievable. They face a Jets offense that some would say is undervalued because of the missed games with Sam Darnold and is 31st in the league with a DVOA of -31% (You want to be positive on offense.) By comparison, KC is at the top with a positive 21%. The Raiders are 16th at 6%.
New England is first against the pass and third versus the run. So the threat of Darnold passing on them doesn't bode well at all. The Le'Veon Bell threat of a run doesn't look too tough either as the 3.0 YPC running the ball and 6.0 YPR catching the ball actually show that right now, getting him the ball actually hurts their offense maintain efficiency.
The Jets' team total is listed at 16.5 and I have no idea how they hit that. It's not like Bill Belichick will take it easy on them if the Patriots get a lead.
Let's move over to the Patriots offense and the Jets defense. The Jets might get C.J. Moseley back but that will only help them a little. I know the Patriots are missing Josh Gordon but don't forget that the Patriots haven't used him much anyway. Josh McDaniels may be the best at hiding weaknesses in the NFL as a play-caller. Whatever he's done so far has worked. The Pats are the eighth-best offense according to the DVOA rankings and New England is also first in Net Yards per Drive and first in Net Points per Drive.
The Jets defense, as I said earlier, is the middle of the pack in the NFL (17th vs the pass and ninth vs the run). So what will the Patriots do this week on offense? They have done everything from run the ball one week more than anyone else in the first half to going another game where they threw the ball every play in a half except for three. They morph into whatever will attack the weakness of the defense they line up against.
I think they will use Brandon Bolden more Monday too. He looked good last week and plays crazy hard. Coach Belichick seemingly loves those guys that just look like they give more effort and fly all over the field. I think this helps because he has played little so there are fewer tendencies picked up by the defense.
One thing I really like is that Tom Brady ranks in the top five in active QB Air Yard Differential and Darnold ranks in the bottom 10. That is a simple way to look at passing efficiency in my mind and something the Jets and Darnold will have to be (efficient in the passing game) to have any shot of keeping this game within the 10 points.
Then there is the subjective way to look at it. Don't play against great QBs. Tom Brady is currently sixth in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) and seventh in DVOA for QBs so that helps take some of the subjectivity out of it, but how many times has he led his team to victory over the one you wanted to win? Too many to keep going against him for sure.
Based on all of the above, I am going to predict the score being around the same as those last seven games I mentioned earlier, all wins by the Patriots. New England 27, New York 10. (You might also want to look at that “under” based on that).