2024 NFL Futures: Win Totals, Team Futures & Player Props

There should be careful consideration with this initial release of player and team futures. Since your money will be tied up for a full NFL season, each individual should determine to what extent they want to tie up their bankroll.

We have listed lines next to the selection that can be found across multiple locations, highlighting one sportsbook as an example.

It is very important to shop around as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best line available.

Our listed unit sizes will help you understand the recommendations we are most confident in. You may not want to utilize this entire portfolio as it, in totality, has a substantial number of wagering options which totals to a large number of units.

Since money will be tied up for over a long period, not every individual will want to allocate to each selection. If your line differs too much from the released line, we suggest passing and taking the remaining wagering options.

Keep in mind that we will continue to release more futures plays throughout the preseason.

We will grade every one of these recommendations based on unit size and keep the record public, as we will do during the regular season for our in-season props package recommendations.

Note: These wagers and units are separate from the wagering scale Warren Sharp uses for his in-season betting package client recommendations.

Recommendations released on September 2, 2024:

LONGSHOT: Seattle Seahawks YES to make playoffs +185 MGM (0.75 units)
LONGSHOT: Kansas City Chiefs to win AFC +350 FD (0.4 units)
LONGSHOT: Patriots worst record +320 DK (0.2 units)
LONGSHOT: Blake Corum most rookie rushing TDs +650 DK, B365 (0.1 units)
Brian Thomas Jr (JAX) receiving touchdowns over 4.5 -130 DK (0.75 units)
New England Patriots Reg Season Wins Under 4.5 +110 DK (0.75 units)
Pittsburgh Steelers Reg Season Wins Under 8.5 -148 UD (0.75 units)
Jacksonville Jaguars Alt Reg Season Wins Under 9.5 -200 MGM (0.5 units)
Gardner Minshew (LV) passing yards under 2900.5 -140 B365 (0.5 units)

Recommendations released on August 26, 2024:

Seattle Seahawks Reg Season Wins Over 7.5 -140 MGM (1 unit)
San Francisco 49ers Reg Season Wins Under 11.5 -130 B365 (1 unit)

Recommendations released on August 23, 2024:

Michael Pittman Jr (IND) receptions under 87.5 -125 DK (1 unit)
LONGSHOT: Jayden Daniels most rookie rushing yards +450 DK (0.3 units)

Recommendations released on August 15, 2024:

All 0.75 units unless mentioned otherwise:

New England Patriots Reg Season Wins Alt Under 5.5 -200 DK (0.6 units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers NO playoffs -176 FD (0.6 units)
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) receiving yards Over 750.5 -110 DK
Mike Williams (NYJ) receiving yards Under 725.5 -125 DK
Rashod Bateman (BAL) receiving yards Under 625.5 -110 B365
Khalil Shakir (BUF) receptions Over 62.5 -110 DK
D’Andre Swift (CHI) rushing TDs Under 5.5 -120 DK/MGM
Anthony Richardson (IND) rushing TDs Over 7.5 +112 FD
Jaylen Warren (PIT) rushing yards Over 615.5 -112 FD
Lamar Jackson (BAL) rushing yards Over 675.5 -125 DK
LONGSHOT: Bucky Irving most rookie rushing yards 26:1 FD (0.2 units)
LONGSHOT: Braelon Allen most rookie rushing yards 16:1 DK (0.2 units)
LONGSHOT: Jalen Hurts MVP 16:1 FD (0.2 units)

Recommendations released on July 19, 2024:

• Bijan Robinson over 6.5 rush TDs -105 CZR/MGM (1 unit) [also -108 at FD]
• Drake Maye passing yards under 2400.5 DK -110 (0.75 unit)
• Jacoby Brissett to play first Week 1 Snap -300 DK (0.75 units to win 0.25 units) [found under season specials]

Bijan Robinson over 6.5 rush TDs -105 CZR/MGM

The Atlanta Falcons have, per our account, a top-five offensive line in terms of the caliber of players.

The Falcons also are expected to play the NFL’s #1 easiest schedule of run defenses.

That will be a solid advantage most weeks.

In addition, from a game script perspective, we expect the Falcons to play the NFL’s #1 easiest schedule of opponents in general.

What does this add up to?

More frequent trips into the red zone, the 10-yard line, and more opportunities for Bijan Robinson to run the ball.

Looking at last season, as a rookie on a losing team with a poorly coordinated offense, Robinson had only 4 rushing touchdowns.

But consider that his quarterback, Desmond Ridder, stole 5 rushing TDs last year.

Guess who won’t be rushing at all near the goal line? The older Kirk Cousins who is also returning from an Achilles injury.

That leaves all the rushing in this offense to the RBs.

Kyren Williams had 12 last year in Sean McVay's offense (where new OC Zac Robinson worked last year), and Williams doesn’t have nearly the explosion

Atlanta is expected to win 9.5 games (#1 in the NFC South) after only 7 wins last year, so they should be in far more positive game scripts.

14-of-19 teams that had a winning record had at least one player with 7+ rushing TDs.

In totality, 18 players had 7+ rushing TDs last year.

I think behind this line, with this schedule, with a non-mobile QB, with the potential opportunities, Falcons RB1 Bijan Robinson easily clears this number.

Recommendations released on June 21, 2024:

• Lions Over 10.5 wins -115 FD (1 unit) [also MGM, ESPN]
• LONGSHOT: Lions Over 11.5 wins +190 CZR (0.25 units)
• LONGSHOT: Last remaining undefeated team: Lions +750 FD (0.1 units)
• LONGSHOT: Best Record: Lions +1100 CZR (0.1 units)

Division Specials -> 1-2 Exact:

• LONGSHOT: 1st Eagles / 2nd Cowboys +225 (DK) (0.75 units) also +200 CZR

Future Game Lines (at DK, 0.5 units each):

• Week 12: Browns -3 +100 (vs Pittsburgh Steelers)
• Week 13: Falcons -2.5 -110 (vs LA Chargers)
• Week 15: Lions -2 -110 (vs Buffalo Bills)

Writeup for Detroit Lions:

Over the last two seasons, with Jared Goff and OC Ben Johnson together, this Lions offense has been vastly different in domes than outdoors.

In 2023, their road games split as follows:

• 3 in domes
• 6 outdoors

In 2022, their road games split as follows:

• 2 in domes
• 6 outdoors

Their road division opponents never change, so each season they will always play one road game in a dome (Minnesota) and two road games outdoors (Chicago, Green Bay).

So if you remove those three road division games, over the last two years, the Lions on the road have played:

• 1 in a dome
• 8 outdoors

That changes entirely this season.

Because in 2024, the Lions non-division road games are:

• @ Arizona Week 3
• @ Dallas Week 6
• @ Houston Week 10
• @ Indianapolis Week 12
• @San Francisco Week 17

That’s four dome games and only one outdoors…as opposed to what it has been the last two seasons (one dome, eight outdoors).

And because the Lions play nine home games this year (only eight home games last year), zooming out, what it means is:

The Lions play seven straight dome games to start the season and 14 of their 17 games are in domes.

The only three exceptions are the two games they will ALWAYS play, plus one in warm California:

• @ Green Bay, but it’s earlier in the season pre-winter (11/3)
• @ Chicago, and they have a +1 day rest edge
• @ San Francisco, rematch of the NFC Championship Game where Detroit played last year and led 24-7

Let’s compare the Lions offensive stats by stadium type the last two years:

Overall:

• DOME: +0.10 EPA/play, 45% success, 6.1 yards/play
• OUTDOOR: -0.01 EPA/play, 40% success, 5.5 yards/play

Passing:

• DOME: +0.17 EPA/att, 50% pass success, 7.8 YPA
• OUTDOOR: +0.06 EPA/att, 45% success, 7.1 YPA

Other:

• DOME: 43% 3rd down conversion rate, 78% DSC, 0.97 points/minute
• OUTDOOR: 38% 3rd down conversion rate, 73% DSC, 0.65 points/minute

Even if you strip away home games and look only at their dome games on the road, you’ll still find Goff specifically is MASSIVELY aided by playing in a dome than outdoors, by looking at the passing stats:

• DOME ROAD: +0.14 EPA/att, 50% success, 7.6 YPA
• OUTDOOR: +0.06 EPA/att, 45% success, 7.1 YPA

And thus, the overall EPA/play, overall success rate, and overall yards/play are higher in dome road games than in outdoor road games.

As such, being able to play 14 dome games and only three outdoor road games is an edge for the Lions they haven’t seen in this new QB/OC era.

Lastly, one note on FG kicking, which seems minor and inconsequential…until it isn’t, like in the NFC Championship Game when they otherwise would have kicked a FG but had no confidence in their kicker, failed to score before halftime, and lost the game late:

Over the last four years, no team has made fewer FGs than the Lions (90, #32).

They rank #25 in overall FG make rate during that span.

And they rank #29 in FG make rate from 50+ yards out, making just 10 (#30) in the last 4 years.

They’ve cycled through four kickers in these last four years and it hasn’t been pretty.

They just signed Jake Bates, who played in the UFL for the Michigan Panthers.

In that season, he went 17-of-22 in the regular season. He was 14-of-16 on attempts under 50 yards, with 1 miss and 1 blocked kick.

He was 7-of-12 from 50+ yards. The Lions have 10 makes in the last four years of 50+…he had seven in one season!

And he was 3-of-4 from 60+ yards.

He made kicks from 51, 52, 53, 55, 60, 62 and 64 yards on the season.

Importantly for the Lions this year, he was 11-of-12 when kicking indoors, with his lone miss being from over 50 yards.

The contrast of his performance and ability to the Lions ranking #25 in FG rate the last four years and #29 from 50+ is stark.

This isn’t THE reason to be on the Lions in futures markets, but it likely won’t hurt and could be a factor that helps.

I have deeper logic on the Lions, their roster, their strategies, their schedule, and their 2024 season expectations which will follow in my 2024 Football Preview Book, which will be out in a couple of weeks. Stay tuned, but this is what I wanted to share right now on the Lions.