This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at this week’s College Game Day matchup between Alabama and Tennessee.
Alabama vs Tennessee Total, current line:
Alabama vs Tennessee Best Bet Prediction:
If I had to bet this game against the spread, I’d go with Alabama 一 but my preferred angle is to put some faith in the defenses and take the under at 65.5 points.
When Alabama is on Offense
For the purposes of this analysis, we’ll assume Bryce Young is going to play.
Alabama’s offensive line ranks 100th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed and 107th in pressure rate allowed against the blitz (44%), per Sports Info Solutions.
The Vols blitz at the nation’s 13th highest rate (39%) and brought extra pressure on 30% of Young’s dropbacks in last year’s meeting. Expect a similar approach on Saturday.
The increased pressure Young has faced this season may be having an impact on his efficiency, as his numbers against pressure have noticeably dipped:
Season Pressure Rate Comp% vs Pressure Yds/Att vs Pressure 2021 25.7% 49.4% 7.9 2022 36.5% 38.7% 5.2
Fortunately for Young, Tennessee does not have an elite pass rush, ranking 53rd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate and 63rd in pressure rate generated on the blitz.
If the Vols can’t get consistent pressure on Young, they’re in trouble. Tennessee ranks 104th in completion percentage allowed when the quarterback is not under pressure and 64th in yards per attempt, per Sports Info Solutions.
Meanwhile, Young is averaging 10.1 yards per attempt in a clean pocket, ranked seventh in the FBS.
The strength of the Tennessee defense is its performance against the run:
- Ranked third in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed
- Ranked second in opponent-adjusted EPA per rush attempt allowed
Although Alabama does have a strong run game, Jahmyr Gibbs tends to take on contact in the backfield at a high rate.
Gibbs has been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 45% of his carries (fifth highest rate in the SEC) and gets stopped for zero or negative yards on 22% of his attempts (also the fifth highest rate in the SEC).
Just in case Young doesn’t play, consider Alabama’s pass rate in a neutral game script, courtesy of Campus2Canton:
- Weeks 1-5: 63%
- Week 6: 27%
Without Young, Alabama becomes a run-heavy offense, which would play right into Tennessee’s strength.
When Tennessee is on Offense
Tennessee plays at the nation’s sixth-fastest pace (21.3 seconds per play) and likes to get the ball out quickly.
Hendon Hooker takes a traditional dropback (three or more steps) on just nine percent of his pass plays 一 the nation’s lowest rate and the only quarterback under 15%, according to Sports Info Solutions.
That style of play can throw off defenses, but it probably won’t affect Alabama, who has already faced non-traditional dropbacks at a surprisingly high rate (58%) and excelled in those situations, as demonstrated by these numbers:
- 4.5 yards per attempt allowed, ranked seventh
- 28% pressure rate generated, ranked 10th
Tennessee is a balanced offense, however, with a 50/50 run-pass split in neutral game situations.
The Vols spread offense allows their ball carriers to run into a light box on 64% of carries, but the offensive line struggles to consistently clear running lanes. Tennessee ranks 62nd in opponent-adjusted yards before contact, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Those issues haven’t created a problem yet, but take a look at the opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed metrics for the defenses Tennessee has faced:
- Ball State, 107th
- Pittsburgh, 92nd
- Akron, 93rd
- Florida, 104th
- LSU, 73rd
- Alabama, second
Alabama’s run defense is on a completely different level from Tennessee’s previous opponents. Although it is worth noting, Vols’ running backs had a season-high 3.3 yards before contact last week against LSU.
Tennessee is expected to be without number-one receiver Cedric Tillman, who hasn’t played since Week 3. In last year’s meeting, Tillman had seven receptions on seven targets for 152 yards.
Final Thoughts on Alabama vs Tennessee Best Bets
Tennessee is 1-5 against the spread as an underdog under Josh Heupel, so you’d be justified to lay the points and take Alabama. However, I prefer taking the under at 65.5 points.
These teams combined for 76 points last year, but Alabama provided 52 of those.
This is a much-improved Vols defense which probably won’t allow Alabama to light up the scoreboard to that extreme again.
Both offenses appear to have some weaknesses the defense can exploit, potentially keeping the total significantly lower than last year’s meeting.