This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at the Texas Longhorns and Steve Sarkisian going up against his former boss Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Alabama Team Total, current line:
Alabama at Texas Best Bet Prediction:
Against a rebuilding Texas defense, take the Alabama team total over 43.5 points. Texas simply doesn’t have the talent on defense to slow down Bryce Young and the Crimson Tide's offensive attack.
» Bet it now: Alabama over 43.5 points
When Alabama is on Offense
Alabama’s weakness in 2021 was its offensive line. The Tide ranked 103rd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed, and 64th in opponent-adjusted rushing yards before contact, according to Sports Info Solutions.
It’s difficult to know how much the Tide has improved after Week 1’s beatdown of Utah State, but even if the offensive line repeats last year’s performance, handling Texas shouldn’t be an issue.
Texas’s defense struggled in both areas as well, ranked 111th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated, and 81st in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed.
In Week 1 against Louisiana-Monroe, Texas generated a mediocre 35.5% pressure rate. That’s a significant red flag, because Louisiana-Monroe ranked 115th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed in 2021 一 this was a team Texas’s pass-rush should have feasted upon.
If Texas can’t capitalize on Alabama’s only potential weakness, it’s difficult to envision this game staying close.
When Texas is on Offense
Texas’s ability to move the ball will depend on freshman quarterback Quinn Ewers’s decision-making against a talented Alabama defense.
In Week 1, Ewers was 4-10 with a touchdown and an interception on throws 10 or more yards downfield, and only produced a 50% catchable-pass rate on those throws (average for Power 5 quarterbacks is 68%).
It’s a small sample size, but it was also a Louisiana-Monroe defense that did not challenge Ewers 一 he was pressured on just two of his 25 dropbacks, according to Sports Info Solutions.
The Alabama defense ranked fourth in the nation in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated last season.
Ewers will be under duress at a significantly higher rate on Saturday, and must be more efficient throwing downfield for the Longhorns to hang with the Tide.
Final Thoughts on Alabama vs Texas Best Bets
Dating back to 2017, Alabama has scored at least 41 points in 16 consecutive regular season non-conference games. Nick Saban is not shy about letting his squad run up the score, and the Tide will likely hang a huge number on a rebuilding Texas defense.
While I prefer taking Alabama’s team total in this game, a strong case could be made for playing Alabama against the spread at -20.5 points, based on Alabama's likely offensive explosion and the potential for Ewers to struggle.
Other College Football Betting Predictions for Week 2:
