This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at Miami versus Texas A&M, as the Aggies look to bounce back after a devastating loss to Appalachian State last week.
Miami vs Texas A&M Spread, current line:
Miami at Texas A&M Best Bet Prediction:
Given Texas A&M’s issues on offense, take Miami at +5.5 against the spread in this matchup.
When Miami is on Offense
There’s a lot we still don’t know about the Miami offense, with former Michigan offensive coordinator Josh Gattis calling plays for new head coach Mario Cristobal.
Gattis ran a slow, run-heavy offense at Michigan 一 but that was heavily influenced by Jim Harbaugh.
This Miami team played at the sixth fastest pace in the country last year, and moving at a faster pace against offensively-challenged Texas A&M would likely be a smart move.
Despite D.J. Durkin taking over for Mike Elko as the Aggies’ defensive coordinator, Texas A&M still does not blitz:
- Ranked 123rd in blitz rate in 2021
- Five blitzes through two games in 2022
A&M’s decision to rely on standard pressure should help Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. Take a look at his numbers over the last two seasons, courtesy of Sports Info Solutions:
Comp % Yds/Att Sack Rate blitz 57.0% 7.8 11.6% no blitz 65.5% 9.5 4.6%
Van Dyke should have all day to throw, as Miami ranked 14th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed last year and has allowed pressure on just 22% of Van Dyke's dropbacks this season.
Texas A&M’s defense ranked 73rd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate in 2021, and generated a disappointing 26% pressure rate through two games 一 and that’s despite playing Sam Houston State in the opener.
If Miami chooses to lean on the run, however, it could run into problems.
Texas A&M ranked 37th in the nation in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed last season, and allowed just 1.6 yards before contact to Appalachian State running backs last week 一 on par with their 1.5 rate allowed against non-SEC opponents last season.
When Texas A&M is on Offense
We’ve only seen four starts from A&M quarterback Haynes King, but so far he does not appear to have the tools to challenge defenses downfield.
Take a look at his career catchable pass rate by target distance, and his percentile rank in those categories compared to all quarterbacks from the past five seasons, per Sports Info Solutions:
Distance Catchable Pass Rate Pct Rank 20+ Yds Downfield 53.3% 18th 10-19 Yds Downfield 70.8% 28th 0-9 Yds Downfield 83.7% 73rd
King’s poor performance this season is especially concerning given the excellent protection he’s received.
Among 108 quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks, King has faced the 14th lowest pressure rate (15.8%), according to Sports Info Solutions.
If A&M is forced to lean on the run, it may struggle against Miami’s front seven.
The Hurricanes ranked 21st in the country in opponent-adjusted yards before contact per attempt last year, and have allowed just 1.0 yards before contact per attempt this season, the 26th lowest rate.
Devon Achane is among the most dangerous ball carriers in the country, but he struggled to find room to run last week.
Through two games, Achane has been contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 46% of his carries 一 a significant leap from his 33% rate last year, and especially concerning given the level of competition the Aggies have faced so far this season.
Final Thoughts on Miami vs Texas A&M Best Bets
I’m usually hesitant to bet against a team coming off what could be its worst performance of the season. However, it’s tough to construct an argument in favor of Texas A&M that isn’t based purely on recruiting rankings.
An alternate way to approach this game may be to take the over on Miami’s team total at 19.5 points, based on the expectation Van Dyke picks apart A&M from a clean pocket.
