This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
In its first game since firing head coach Scott Frost, Nebraska hosts former Big 12 rival Oklahoma. Let’s take a deeper look at this matchup.
Oklahoma vs Nebraska Total, current line:
Oklahoma vs Nebraska Best Bet Prediction:
Both offenses have some explosive potential, but take the under at 65.5 points. This line appears to be influenced more by Oklahoma’s reputation than what we’ve seen on the field so far this season.
» Bet it now: Oklahoma/Nebraska under 65.5 points
When Oklahoma is on Offense
Oklahoma is still working through some issues on offense after losing head coach Lincoln Riley and a lot of talent to the transfer portal.
Kent State forced the Sooners to punt on their first four possessions last week and Oklahoma went into halftime with only a 7-3 lead.
Untimely sacks 一 five in two games against Kent State and UTEP 一 have been part of the problem.
Fortunately for Oklahoma, Nebraska likely won’t get consistent pressure on quarterback Dillon Gabriel. The Huskers have generated a disappointing 21% pressure rate through three games, and ranked 69th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate a season ago, per Sports Info Solutions.
That said, Kent State ranked 128th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate last year, and still took Gabriel down three times.
When Nebraska is on Offense
Nebraska might have a chance if it can protect quarterback Casey Thompson, but check out the Huskers' pressure rate allowed through three games, courtesy of Sports Info Solutions:
- vs Northwestern – 36%
- vs North Dakota – 40%
- vs Georgia Southern – 8%
Perhaps Nebraska figured things out last week, but it ranked 124th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed last year, so it’s unlikely the team suddenly flipped a switch.
Protecting Thompson will get more challenging against an Oklahoma defense that ranked 24th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate a season ago.
The Sooners have only generated a pressure rate of 26% through two games, but head coach Brent Venables has kept things vanilla with a blitz rate of just 16%, per Sports Info Solutions.
Last year at Clemson, Venables utilized a blitz rate of 31%.
Nebraska has found some success running the ball 一 its running backs are averaging 6.0 yards per carry 一 but the offensive line has issues here as well.
Take a look at the rate at which Huskers running backs have been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage:
- vs Northwestern – 48%
- vs North Dakota – 46%
- vs Georgia Southern – 25%
Again, Georgia Southern’s defense failed to present a challenge, but Oklahoma is a big step up in competition from anyone on the schedule so far.
Final Thoughts on Oklahoma vs Nebraska Best Bets
When Nebraska’s total is over 60 points, the under has hit in seven of 11 games since 2019. This is mostly because Nebraska’s offense usually isn’t able to rise to the occasion.
Nebraska’s defense is going to allow Oklahoma to do what it wants, but the unforced errors by Oklahoma will likely continue as the Sooners' offense continues to gel.
Expect both teams to be slightly less efficient on offense than expected and take the under.