This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at a battle of ranked teams between No. 9 Baylor and No. 21 BYU.
Baylor vs BYU Spread, current line:
Baylor vs BYU Best Bet Prediction:
In this rematch from last season, take Baylor and the points. It’s tough to find a statistical edge for BYU in this matchup.
When Baylor is on Offense
Baylor is a run-first offense, with a 55% run rate in a one-score game last season.
BYU’s defense ranked 108th in opponent-adjusted EPA per rush in 2021, according to Sports Info Solutions. Baylor ran all over the Cougars' defense, to the tune of 303 yards, including 188 from starting running back Abram Smith (now in the NFL).
BYU held South Florida to 81 rushing yards last week, but did allow 2.0 yards before contact per attempt and did not record a single stop at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Baylor lacks experience at running back, but if BYU can’t be disruptive in the backfield, it shouldn’t matter.
When Blake Shapen drops back to pass, he shouldn’t face much pressure from BYU’s pass rush.
The Cougars ranked 81st in opponent-adjusted pressure rate in 2021, and posted an abysmal 12% pressure rate against South Florida last week.
When these teams met last year, Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon was pressured on just 25% of his dropbacks and was not sacked.
When BYU is on Offense
BYU hung 50 points on South Florida, but there was one concerning trend in the game: BYU’s inability to create running lanes for Christopher Brooks.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Brooks averaged 0.5 yards before contact per attempt.
Last year’s starting running back, Tyler Allgeier, was held under one yard before contact only twice:
- vs Utah (0.3)
- vs Baylor (0.8)
If Baylor was able to limit Allgeier’s ability to find open space last year, and Brooks couldn’t find running lanes against lowly South Florida, it’s hard to imagine the BYU run game having success in this rematch.
If BYU can’t run the ball, that puts more pressure on quarterback Jaren Hall, who was pressured on 39% of his dropbacks, including five sacks, against Baylor last season.
Baylor ranked eighth in the nation in opponent-adjusted pressure rate last year, and returns two of its top three pass rushers (Gabe Hall and Siaji Ika).
Final Thoughts on Baylor vs BYU Best Bets
This is one of those confusing spreads that makes you wonder if someone knows something we don’t. The best argument in BYU’s favor is the fact that Baylor is bringing an inexperienced quarterback (Shapen has three career starts) into a tough road environment.
That said, I’m definitely taking the points and betting Baylor against the spread. I’ll likely throw something on the Baylor money line as well.
Other College Football Betting Predictions for Week 2:
