This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Fresh off a big win over Baylor, No. 12 BYU hits the road to take on No. 25 Oregon. Let’s dive into the matchup.
BYU vs Oregon Spread, current line:
BYU at Oregon Best Bet Prediction:
This looks like a great opportunity to use early results to our advantage and lay the points and take Oregon -3.5. After Oregon’s blowout loss to Georgia, and BYU’s win over Baylor, public opinion of these programs is skewed 一 Oregon should still hold a significant talent advantage in this matchup.
When BYU is on Offense
BYU pulled off the overtime victory over Baylor last week, but there were some concerning numbers to emerge from that game:
- BYU converted 3 of 14 third-down attempts
- Jaren Hall was 2-9 for 14 yards versus pressure
- BYU running backs averaged 2.4 yards per attempt
Those numbers rarely add up to a victory. So, even though Baylor was a more formidable opponent than Oregon, we shouldn’t assume the Cougars are up for the challenge just because they knocked off the Bears in Provo.
BYU will likely have to lean on its passing game, because it does not appear as though this offensive line is capable of competing with top-tier teams.
Through two games, lead back Christopher Brooks is averaging 0.9 yards before contact per attempt, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Although the run game is a concern, BYU is a balanced team, with a 49% pass rate in a neutral game script over the last two seasons, according to Campus2Canton.
Hall’s athleticism has allowed him to excel against the blitz, but he’s been less explosive when teams bring standard pressure:
Positive EPA Rate +1 EPA RATE Blitz 51% 27% No Blitz 48% 21%
Oregon used a 30% blitz rate against Georgia in Week 1, but expect Ducks head coach Dan Lanning to use his athletic linebackers to contain Hall rather than for bringing extra pressure in this matchup.
When Oregon is on Offense
We don’t know much about Oregon under offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham, as the Ducks have yet to play a competitive game. However, over the past two seasons at Florida State, Dillingham ran a run-heavy offense, with a 42% run rate in neutral game situations, per Campus2Canton.
Take a look at the numbers for Oregon’s ball carriers in the first half (when the starters were still in) against Georgia, courtesy of Sports Info Solutions:
- Byron Cardwell: 2 carries, 3 yards, 5 yards after contact
- Mar’Keise Irving: 4 carries, 10 yards, 8 yards after contact
- Noah Whittington, 3 carries, 14 yards, 9 yards after contact
Collectively, the group was contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on seven of their nine carries and averaged 0.6 yards before contact per attempt.
Those numbers are a bit of a red flag, even accounting for Georgia’s elite defense, but BYU’s front seven should not pose as much of a threat.
The Cougars' defense ranked 100th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed last year, and has maintained mediocre numbers in the run game this year:
- vs South Florida: 1.9 yards before contact allowed, 24% contact rate at or behind the LOS
- vs Baylor: 1.7 yards before contact allowed, 33% contact rate at or behind the LOS
On the season, BYU has stopped opposing running backs for zero or negative yards on just 6% of their carries.
Final Thoughts on BYU vs Oregon Best Bets
Based on early results there’s an overly-negative perception of Oregon and an overly-positive view of BYU. Oregon likely is not as bad as it looked in Lanning’s debut against Georgia, and BYU was probably lucky to hang on to the overtime victory over Baylor.
It’s a great opportunity to take Oregon at -3.5 一 a spread that would almost certainly be higher if the Ducks had simply scheduled an easier season-opening opponent.
Based on the expectation of Oregon leaning on the run game and BYU potentially struggling on offense, the under 57.5 points is also an enticing bet.