This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s break down a big ACC battle between Clemson and Florida State.
Clemson vs Florida State Spread, current line:
Clemson vs Florida State Best Bet Prediction:
Florida State is much improved, but Mike Norvell's squad is getting too much respect here 一 lay the points and take Clemson against the spread.
When Clemson is on Offense
Clemson leans heavily on the run game, with only a 43% pass rate in neutral game situations, per Campus2Canton.
Led by Will Shipley, the Tigers rushing attack ranks 30th in the nation in opponent-adjusted EPA per rush attempt, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Based on these numbers, the Florida State defense does not appear up for the challenge of containing Shipley and Clemson's rushing attack:
- Ranked 117th in opponent-adjusted EPA per rush attempt allowed
- Ranked 87th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed
- Ranked 77th in explosive rush rate allowed (12.8%)
D.J. Uiagalelei has improved as a passer this season, but still struggles with pressure. Take a look at his numbers and ACC ranks when under duress, via Sports Info Solutions:
- 35% completion rate, ranked ninth out of 11 ACC quarterbacks
- 63% catchable pass rate, ranked seventh
- 3.8 yards per attempt, ranked sixth
- 19% sack rate, ranked seventh
Fortunately for Uiagalelei, Florida State’s pass rush has been ordinary this season. The Seminoles rank 81st in blitz rate (23%) and 72nd in pressure rate generated without the blitz (22%).
It’s possible Florida State will increase its blitz rate as it did against Wake Forest (32% blitz rate), but even with the blitz, the Seminoles only rank 41st in pressure rate (40%).
When Florida State is on Offense
Florida State has been the nation’s most explosive offense, gaining 20 or more yards on 11.3% of plays.
Clemson has a dominant run defense, but the pass defense has been prone to giving up big plays, ranking 74th in explosive pass rate allowed.
The key to Florida State maintaining an explosive passing game will be protecting Jordan Travis.
Unfortunately, there appears to be a significant mismatch when it comes to the Seminoles pass protection versus Clemson’s pass rush, per Sports Info Solutions:
- FSU: Ranks 95th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed
- Clemson: Ranks 7th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated
Clemson’s pass rush success is partially due to a high blitz rate (33%), which could pose problems for Florida State.
Travis has been pressured on 44% of his dropbacks versus the blitz, which ranks 90th out of 103 quarterbacks, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Here’s a look at Travis’s numbers against the blitz:
- 52% completion rate, ranked 79th out of 103
- 6.2 yards per attempt, ranked 73rd
- 7.1 adjusted net yards per attempt, ranked 51st
Despite the mediocre numbers against the blitz, it is worth noting Travis has not taken a sack versus the blitz, and the ability to avoid negative plays could help keep Florida State in this game.
Florida State will likely not attempt to run the ball often due to Clemson’s dominant defense.
Clemson leads the nation in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed, per Sports Info Solutions, which is bad news for starting running back Trey Benson.
Benson is not an elusive runner and has been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 51% of his carries.
Florida State will likely be without its more elusive ball carrier, Treshaun Ward, who had drawn early contact on just 33% of his attempts prior to his injury.
Final Thoughts on Clemson vs Florida State Best Bets
Florida State has the explosive ability to potentially pull off the upset with the help of some big plays. However, there are too many areas in which Clemson holds an advantage to pick against the Tigers.
Dating back to 2017, Clemson has won and covered all four games against Florida State, and I’ll lay the points and pick Clemson to keep that streak alive.
If you’re nervous about laying the points, you might consider the Clemson moneyline as an alternative. Dabo Swinney started his career 1-4 straight up when favored by a touchdown or less on the road, but has since gone 7-2, dating back to 2012.