This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at an SEC showdown between Ole Miss and Kentucky.
Kentucky vs Ole Miss Spread, current line:
Kentucky vs Ole Miss Best Bet Prediction:
Shop around for this line, because it’s been available at -6.5, but either way, lay the points and take Ole Miss against the spread.
When Kentucky is on Offense
Kentucky running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. returns from a suspension this week, and the Wildcats' offense desperately needs him.
Although Kentucky has become more of a passing team in recent years, it’s still a run-first offense with a 55% run rate in a neutral game script, according to Campus2Canton.
Despite the commitment to the run, the Wildcats rank 127th in opponent-adjusted EPA per rush attempt so far this year, per Sports Info Solutions.
Kentucky’s offensive formations dictate ball carriers run into a stacked box at the nation’s 10th highest rate (75%). Thanks to a dominant offensive line, this wasn’t an issue last year, but this season Kentucky ranks 82nd in opponent-adjusted yards before contact, per Sports Info Solutions.
When Kentucky shifts to the passing game, quarterback Will Levis must avoid negative plays.
Against FBS opponents, Levis has taken a sack or thrown an interception on 13% of his dropbacks, which ranks 111th out of 118 quarterbacks. He’s also taken a sack on 33% of his dropbacks versus pressure, the nation’s ninth highest rate.
These numbers are particularly concerning because Kentucky ranks 122nd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed.
The Ole Miss defense is not known for creating havoc and has not been tested this year, but it does rank in the middle of the pack in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated (63rd). It shouldn’t take much for the Rebels to cause problems for Kentucky’s struggling passing attack.
When Ole Miss is on Offense
Ole Miss has been extremely run heavy so far this season, only throwing the ball 33% of the time in a neutral game script. However, the Rebels have yet to face a strong opponent and it’s possible Lane Kiffin has been purposefully vanilla in his game plan.
Despite the run-heavy approach, this remains the nation’s fifth fastest offense, running a play once every 20.8 seconds.
Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans are both averaging over six yards per carry overall, and over seven yards per carry versus a light box, per Sports Info Solutions.
Kiffin regularly spreads out the offense, allowing Ole Miss ball carriers to run into a light box on 60% of their carries.
Although the Wildcats are known for a stout defense, they’re allowing 4.2 yards per carry (ranked 39th) with a light box, according to Sports Info Solutions.
If Ole Miss opens up the passing game more in this matchup, expect Jaxson Dart to have success against a Kentucky defense struggling to create pressure.
Kentucky ranks 98th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate, generating pressure on just 22% of opponent dropbacks.
Dart is completing 71% of his throws at 9.5 yards per attempt in a clean pocket this year.
Final Thoughts on Kentucky vs Ole Miss Best Bets
I’d feel better about this game if Ole Miss had been tested against a top-tier opponent already. However, there’s enough evidence Kentucky is overrated to make me lay the points and take Ole Miss.
Other College Football Betting Predictions for Week 4: