This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at this week’s College Game Day matchup between Florida and Tennessee.
Michigan vs Iowa Spread, current line:
Michigan vs Iowa Best Bet Prediction:
Trust the Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium and take Iowa at +10.5 points against Michigan.
When Michigan is on Offense
Michigan running back Blake Corum is averaging 4.1 yards before contact per attempt, per Sports Info Solutions, as the Wolverines offensive line has simply obliterated lesser competition so far this year.
Iowa’s run defense will be a new challenge, however, as it ranks eighth in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed. To this point, the highest ranked defense Michigan has faced by that metric is Maryland, which ranks 75th.
Iowa will also pose a new test for quarterback J.J. McCarthy, making his first career start on the road.
McCarthy has only been pressured on eight dropbacks this season, but Iowa gets pressure at a 31% clip and ranks 32nd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated, according to Sports Info Solutions.
It’s also worth noting Michigan may be without linemen Karsen Barnhart and Trevor Keegan, neither of whom suited up last week against Maryland. Their absence hasn’t hurt yet, but the Iowa defense is a much different test.
When Iowa is on Offense
The Iowa offense, run by Kirk Ferentz’s son Brian, is a balanced attack in terms of run versus pass, but painfully conservative.
Due to Ferentz’s conservative nature, Iowa ranks 93rd in explosive pass rate.
This might be a good matchup for quarterback Spencer Petras, however, as Michigan has struggled to replace pass rushers Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo.
Michigan ranks 109th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate this season. It’s plausible that number is skewed by having played in some blowouts, but even if we limit the sample to the first half of games (when the starters are still on the field), Michigan’s 24% pressure rate ranks 95th.
This is good news for Petras, who struggles versus pressure:
Comp % Yds/Att Adj. Net Yds/Att Sack Rate No Pressure 59.3% 6.8 7.1 -- vs Presssure 33.3% 3.1 -2.0 30%
Iowa’s run game has been unspectacular so far, but Michigan’s run defense has posted some concerning numbers as well.
Michigan has contacted opposing running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 39% of attempts, which ranks 63rd, per Sports Info Solutions.
Last week against Maryland, Michigan only stuffed running backs for zero or negative yards on two of 25 carries 一 another concerning number against an unimpressive Terps rushing attack.
Final Thoughts on Michigan vs Iowa Best Bets
Since Kirk Ferentz got to Iowa in 1999, the Hawkeyes are 9-2 against the spread as a double-digit home underdog, including seven straight covers and three outright wins.
Ferentz is also 4-0 against the spread and 3-1 outright as a home underdog against Michigan 一 including an outright win over Jim Harbaugh’s squad in 2016 as 24-point underdogs.
Despite Iowa’s offensive woes, there’s reason to believe Michigan’s defense has taken a step back and Iowa should be capable of keeping this game interesting 一 take the points and bet Iowa against the spread.
Other College Football Betting Predictions for Week 4:
- Oklahoma State at Baylor, against the spread prediction
- Kentucky at Ole Miss, against the spread prediction
- NC State at Clemson, against the spread prediction