The college football season begins this Saturday and we've got you covered with Sharp Football betting analysis, coverage and market opportunities.
First up: Nebraska vs Northwestern which kicks off at 12:30 PM ET on August 27.
Offensive Efficiency for Nebraska & Northwestern
Neither Nebraska nor Northwestern were particularly efficient on offense last year, but both played at a good pace.
Northwestern ranked 34th in seconds per play, while Nebraska ranked 36th.
Nebraska’s new offensive coordinator Mark Whipple may even want to move faster, as his Pittsburgh offense ranked 23rd, averaging a play every 24.3 seconds.
Both offenses should have an edge and be able to move the ball in this matchup, leading to a relatively high scoring game.
Nebraska vs Northwestern Over/Under Total Points, current line:
Nebraska vs Northwestern Over/Under Prediction:
The smart bet is to take the Over at 49.5 points for the Nebraska vs Northwestern game this Saturday, August 27th.
» Bet the Nebraska vs. Northwestern Over
When Nebraska is on Offense
Northwestern blitzed on just 17.2% of plays last season, the 11th lowest rate in the nation according to Sports Info Solutions.
That trend bodes well for Nebraska quarterback Casey Thompson, who was consistently productive versus standard pressure last season at Texas, despite some struggles against the blitz.
| Comp% | Y/A | +EPA% | |
| Thompson vs no blitz | 66.0% | 8.9 | 49% |
| Thompson vs blitz | 53.4% | 5.2 | 35% |
These numbers make Thompson look like a good option in DFS lineups, and should boost our confidence in Nebraska posting a strong number to contribute to the over.
When Northwestern is on Offense
Northwestern scored just seven points against the Huskers in last year’s matchup, but it came in quarterback Ryan Hilinski’s second start.
Hilinski is expected to start in this matchup 一 though Pat Fitzgerald has yet to officially make an announcement 一 and he’ll be playing behind an offensive line which returns four starters, including potential 2023 first-round pick Peter Skoronski at left tackle.
Starting running back Evan Hull is a downhill runner who averaged 3.6 yards after contact per attempt, ranked fifth in the Big Ten, per Sports Info Solutions.
That skillset makes him a tough matchup for a Nebraska defense which ranked 13th in the conference in yards per attempt allowed after contact.
Hull was limited to just seven carries in last year’s matchup because Nebraska jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter, but picked up 4.4 yards per carry.
When the score differential was within single digits, Northwestern ran the ball 52% of the time in 2021. So If the Wildcats can keep this game interesting early, Hull should see a nice workload.
Other College Football Betting Predictions for Week 0:
