After the Week 0 teaser, the full college football slate is back this weekend, beginning with some key games on Thursday night.
This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at Marcus Freeman’s debut at Notre Dame, as he returns to his alma mater, Ohio State.
Notre Dame Team Total, current line:
Notre Dame at Ohio State Best Bet Prediction:
Ohio State’s defense should be much improved and Notre Dame is breaking in a new quarterback, so expect the Irish to struggle on offense and take the under on Notre Dame’s team total.
When Notre Dame is on Offense
Tyler Buchner takes over at quarterback for the Irish, and he’ll bring a new dynamic to the offense as he’s considerably more mobile than last year’s starter Jack Coan.
Excluding sacks, Buchner averaged 7.9 yards per attempt on 44 carries in 2021.
The biggest question is how Buchner handles pressure, especially in an environment like a night game in Columbus.
- Last year, Buchner was 3-9 with two interceptions and a sack on 10 dropbacks versus pressure, according to Sports Info Solutions.
That’s a small sample size, but enough to raise doubts about his ability to handle an opponent like Ohio State in his first career start.
For all the talk about Ohio State’s struggling defense last season, it still ranked:
- 46th overall (38th in the regular season) in opponent-adjusted EPA per dropback allowed
- 18th in opponent-adjusted EPA per rush attempt
Enter defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, whose Oklahoma State defense 一 with considerably less raw talent 一 ranked second and first, respectively, in those metrics a season ago.
When Ohio State is on Offense
The Buckeyes averaged more EPA per dropback than its opponents average allowed in every game in 2021 一 by an average margin of .41 EPA per dropback, per Sports Info Solutions. In other words, the Ohio State passing game is matchup proof.
Notre Dame’s defense tends to create problems for opposing quarterbacks with the blitz. The Irish blitzed at the 27th highest rate last year, and ranked seventh in the nation in EPA per dropback allowed versus the blitz.
Unfortunately for Notre Dame, C.J. Stroud was among the best in the nation at handling the blitz, generating positive EPA on 60% of his dropbacks, the nation’s second highest rate.
Perhaps more importantly, Stroud avoided negative plays versus the blitz, generating -1 EPA or worse at the fifth lowest rate, according to Sports Info Solutions.
If the Irish can’t force Stroud into some costly mistakes, they probably can’t slow down this Buckeyes offense.
Final Thoughts Notre Dame vs Ohio State Best Bets
The team totals may not be posted until Saturday depending on what book you’re using, but we can make a good guess as to the number based on the implied total.
If you can find Notre Dame’s team total at 21.5 or higher, the under looks like a strong bet based on the expected improvements made by Knowles to Ohio State’s defense.
You could also make a case for betting the under on this game’s total (59.5 points at BetMGM).
I’m hesitant to bet the under on any game involving an offense like Ohio State’s, but if this game gets out of hand, Ryan Day is likely to take his foot off the gas due to Marcus Freeman’s Ohio State connections.
Although Freeman and Day were never on the same staff, Freeman both played and coached at Ohio State and was teammates with one of Day’s top assistants, passing-game coordinator Brian Hartline.
Other College Football Betting Predictions for Week 1:
