After the Week 0 teaser, the full college football slate is back this weekend, beginning with some key games on Thursday night.
This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s break down Dan Lanning’s debut as Oregon’s head coach against his former squad, the Georgia Bulldogs.
Oregon vs Georgia Spread, current line:
Oregon vs Georgia Prediction & Best Bet:
Go ahead and lay the points and take Georgia against the spread at -17.5 against the No. 11 Oregon Ducks. This is a large spread for a battle of ranked teams, but No. 3 Georgia has covered five straight games when favored between 14 and 21 points.
When Oregon is on Offense
Oregon quarterback Bo Nix will be making his first start for the Ducks after transferring from Auburn, but he’ll be in a familiar system, as offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham was at Auburn during Nix’s freshman year in 2019.
Oregon ranked 75th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed last season. That’s bad news against a Georgia defense which ranked 15th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated, and returns key pass-rushers Jalen Carter (29 QB pressures) and Nolan Smith (24).
Nix has a reputation as a risk-taker, and that has gotten him into trouble in the past, and likely will again if Georgia is bringing consistent pressure.
Let's look at Nix's EPA last season:
- 5 games against ranked opponents: -26.4 EPA on dropbacks
- 5 games against unranked opponents: 37.5 EPA on dropbacks
If Nix is a liability 一 which he was at times during his Auburn career 一 Oregon can’t compete with Georgia.
When Georgia is on Offense
Oregon’s defense was bullied in the trenches by more physical teams last year (namely, Utah) and will likely struggle against Georgia’s offensive line.
The Ducks' defense ranked 64th in yards before contact allowed (2.2 yards per attempt), excluding carries inside the 10-yard line, according to Sports Info Solutions.
By the same metric, Georgia’s offense ranked 34th, picking up 2.4 yards before contact per attempt.
Oregon’s ability to replace first-round pick Kayvon Thibodeaux will be a key factor as well. When Oregon did not get pressure on the quarterback last season, it allowed 8.1 yards per attempt (ranked 72nd).
Meanwhile, Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett shredded defenses when kept clean, ranking third in the nation with 10.6 yards per attempt.
Final Thoughts on Oregon vs Georgia Best Bets
Oregon shocked us last September with an upset of Ohio State. In hindsight, the Buckeyes were a pretty good matchup for the Ducks as a more finesse team on both sides of the ball.
Georgia, however, is annually one of the most physical teams in the nation under head coach Kirby Smart. Utah laid the blueprint for how that style of play can be used to dominate Oregon, and the Bulldogs should have no issues following the plan.
Perhaps Lanning can create a new identity for the Ducks, but it’s a tall task to expect a turnaround in the season opener against the defending champs.
Other College Football Betting Predictions for Week 1:
