This season I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at the final Pac-12 version of one of the conference's best rivalries between Oregon and Washington.
Oregon vs Washington, current line:
Oregon vs Washington Best Bet Prediction:
Great rivalry games are always tough to predict, but I’ll take the points and play Oregon against the spread.
- Oregon vs. Washington, current line: Oregon +3
» Bet it now: Oregon +3 points
When Oregon is on Offense
Oregon has become one of the most pass-heavy teams in the nation this year, a somewhat surprising development with quarterback Bo Nix and co-offensive coordinator Junior Adams both returning from a more run-centric attack.
According to Campus2Canton, Oregon has taken a massive leap in its neutral game script pass rate:
- 2022: 43%
- 2023: 63%
Despite the pass-heavy approach, this cannot be described as an aggressive offense. Nix’s average depth of throw is just 5.5 yards downfield, the lowest among all Power 5 quarterbacks, per Sports Info Solutions.
Additionally, Oregon has thrown 15 or more yards downfield on just 13% of his pass attempts, ranked 130th.
Although this isn’t an aggressive offense, there are reasons to believe Nix will be able to move the ball in the passing game against this inconsistent Washington defense. A few key stats for the Huskies’ defense that jump out, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Ranked 71st in yards per attempt allowed on throws within five yards of the line of scrimmage
- Ranked 86th in broken/missed tackle rate in the passing game
It’s also extremely unlikely the Washington defense puts any pressure on Nix based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oregon: ranked first in pressure rate allowed
- Washington: ranked 111th in pressure rate generated
Washington’s inability to generate pressure is especially concerning given the level of competition it has faced. The Huskies have faced just one team ranked inside the top 60 in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed (Arizona, 13th).
The run game might be a more even matchup based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oregon: ranked 7th in yards before contact gained
- Washington: 37th in yards before contact allowed
However, Washington has been susceptible to defensive miscues against the run. The Huskies are allowing three or more yards before contact on 30.6% of running back attempts, ranked 79th.
Oregon has generated 10 or more yards on the ground on 22% of its carries, ranked second in the nation, so this explosive rushing attack should be able to take advantage when Washington allows free running lanes.
This shouldn’t come as a surprise given the numbers we’ve covered already, but check out the rate each team ends up in a third-and-long situation (seven or more yards):
- Oregon offense: 16.7% of set-of-downs, ranked 12th
- Washington defense: 22%, ranked 84th
Again, Washington’s poor strength of schedule makes these defensive numbers even more concerning. We should expect Oregon to move the ball up and down the field with ease against the Huskies.
When Washington is on Offense
Washington runs a pass-heavy offense under head coach Kalen DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. According to Campus2Canton, the Huskies throw the ball 55% of the time in a neutral game script.
Entering this game, Washington leads the nation in explosive play rate, with 13% of its plays producing 20 or more yards. That said, put an asterisk on that number as the Huskies rank 101st in strength of schedule, per ESPN. The Huskies' remaining strength of schedule ranks 11th, so we’ll learn just how dominant this offense is starting this week.
Oregon’s defense ranks eighth in explosive play rate allowed 一 and while the Ducks have not played a difficult schedule either, their dominance of a capable Colorado offense serves as some proof of concept.
The biggest questions facing Washington are: can it protect Michael Penix, and can Penix handle pressure from the Oregon defense?
Take a look at the battle in the trenches based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Washington: Ranked third in pressure rate allowed
- Oregon: Ranked 63rd in pressure rate generated
The only competent pass-rush unit Washington has faced is Michigan State, which generated a 31% pressure rate against Penix. So Oregon should be able to generate some pressure, which could slow down this potent passing attack.
Take a look at Penix’s numbers with and without pressure since he arrived in Washington last year:
Pressure? Comp Pct Yds/Att TD-Int vs Pressure 40.2% 6.3 3-2 No Pressure 74.1% 9.7 44-8
When he has time to throw, expect Penix to challenge Oregon with the deep ball. Washington has thrown 15 or more yards downfield on 28% of its attempts, ranked 25th.
Winning downfield may not be easy for Washington's receivers, however. Oregon ranks eighth in completion percentage allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (27%) and notably held Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders to a 0-6 performance on the deep ball.
In the run game, Washington has a more clear edge against a relatively soft Oregon run defense.
Oregon relies on either a 4-2-5 or 3-3-5 defensive alignment, which means it rarely puts more than six defenders in the box. As a result, the Ducks struggle to generate early contact, hitting ball carriers at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 39% of attempts (ranked 79th), per Sports Info Solutions.
Washington does not have an explosive rushing attack 一 it ranks 69th in rate of gaining 10 or more yards 一 but Oregon’s inability to generate early contact should help. Lead back Dillon Johnson averages 7.8 yards per attempt when crossing the line of scrimmage without contact.
Though Washington’s offense is not built around the run game, should it build a second-half lead, expect Washington to effectively control the ball on the ground.
Final Thoughts on Washington vs Oregon Best Bets
Trust Dan Lanning, who is 13-4 against the spread as a head coach, and take the points and play Oregon against the spread.
The data points that sway me in this direction are Washington’s defensive numbers. Given the pitiful schedule the Huskies have faced, we should expect to see signs of dominance in this area.
Penix is certainly capable of leading Washington to a shootout victory, but I have more faith in Oregon playing a complete game on both sides of the ball.
