This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at this week’s College Game Day matchup between Florida and Tennessee.
Penn State vs Michigan Spread, current line:
Penn State vs Michigan Best Bet Prediction:
Both teams run the ball extremely well, but Michigan is the more balanced team 一 lay the points and take Michigan against the spread, but be sure to shop around and try to grab this line at -6.5 points.
When Penn State is on Offense
Penn State leans heavily on the run game, with only a 39.8% pass rate in neutral game situations, per Campus2Canton.
True freshman running back Nick Singleton is a special talent, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt, including 4.7 yards after contact per attempt, which ranks second among Power 5 running backs.
Singleton will face his toughest test of the year against Michigan. However, the Wolverines' run defense has shown some flaws, most notably by struggling to create havoc in the backfield.
Focusing only on games between Power 5 opponents, check out Michigan’s run defense ranks, per Sports Info Solutions:
- 35th (out of 64) in contact rate at or behind the line of scrimmage (38%)
- 49th in rate of stopping running backs for zero or negative yards (14%)
This trend could be a problem against Singleton, who has made defenses pay for a lack of early contact.
When Singleton is allowed to cross the line of scrimmage before contact, he’s averaging 10.7 yards per attempt, ranked fourth among Power 5 ball carriers per Sports Info Solutions.
If Penn State is forced to throw the ball, Sean Clifford could be in trouble.
Clifford has been pressured on 27% of his dropbacks, and Penn State ranks 114th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed.
Some key stats on Michigan’s pass rush, from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ranked 49th in FBS in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated
- Ranked 18th in pressure rate generated with a blitz (44%)
- Ranked 27th in pressure rate generated without a blitz (28%)
Clifford also struggles to throw downfield 一 he ranks 105th out of 113 quarterbacks in catchable pass rate at 10 or more air yards 一 so don’t expect him to orchestrate a comeback if Michigan builds a significant lead.
When Michigan is on Offense
Michigan has a reputation as a run-first offense, but it is becoming a more pass-centric unit since J.J. McCarthy took over at quarterback.
According to Campus2Canton, Michigan threw the ball 39% of the time in neutral game situations last year, but that rate has jumped to 49% since McCarthy took over in Week 2 this season.
The biggest question in this game is: how will McCarthy respond if Penn State generates consistent pressure?
Michigan’s offensive line has excelled at protecting McCarthy 一 he’s been pressured on over 20% of his dropbacks in just one game (26% versus Iowa). However, Penn State ranks second in the nation in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Michigan’s traditional pro-style offense forces its ball carriers to run into a stacked box at the sixth highest rate among non-option offenses (71%), per Sports Info Solutions.
Penn State excels at stopping the run with a stacked box, allowing 2.8 yards per attempt (ranked 13th). However, Michigan has already proven itself against an Iowa defense that ranks 19th by that metric.
Against the Hawkeyes, Blake Corum had 19 carries into a stacked box, and picked up 5.2 yards per attempt, while getting hit in the backfield on just five of those carries.
Michigan's run game appears to be matchup-proof and should have another big day against the Nittany Lions.
Final Thoughts on Penn State vs Michigan Best Bets
Penn State is 5-1 against the spread as a road underdog with Clifford as the starting quarterback, including an upset victory at Michigan in 2020.
However, I’m going against that trend and taking Michigan against the spread, primarily based on Michigan’s balanced performance.
McCarthy looks like the best quarterback Jim Harbaugh has had at Michigan, and the gap between him and Clifford is substantial.
