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This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at a critical Big Ten showdown between Penn State and USC.
Penn State vs. USC, current line:
Penn State vs. USC Best Bet Prediction:
Both offenses appear to have an edge, so rather than play the spread, let’s bet the over at 50.5 points.
- Penn State vs. USC, current line: 50.5 points
» Bet it now: over 50.5 points
When Penn State is on Offense
Penn State’s revolving door of offensive coordinators may have finally landed on a winner: Andy Kotelnicki.
As has been the trend for Kotelnicki teams in the past (most recently at Kansas), he leans on the run game. According to Campus2Canton, Penn State’s pass rate has been 4.3% below expected based on situational data.
USC’s defense has improved under coordinator D’Anton Lynn, but the run game remains the best way to attack this unit.
Take a look at these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Penn State: ranked 84th in yards before contact
- USC: ranked 112th in yards before contact allowed
- Penn State: ranked 19th in yards after contact
- USC: ranked 47th in yards after contact allowed
USC’s ability to tackle is the biggest change from a season ago when the Trojans ranked 98th in opponent-adjusted yards after contact.
But there remains a lack of talent on the defensive line 一 especially after the surprising midseason redshirt decision of defensive lineman Bear Alexander.
Starting running back Nick Singleton was banged up last week and sat out the Nittany Lions game against UCLA. It sounds like Singleton will try to play in this game, but Penn State shouldn’t be worried either way.
Singleton is the home run hitter on the outside while Kayton Allen is the workhorse between the tackles. So the offense changes without Singleton, but the results should remain the same in this matchup.
According to Sports Info Solutions, USC is allowing 5.7 yards per attempt between the tackles, ranked 113th.
Due to USC’s struggles against the run, the Trojans have been unable to force teams into unfavorable down and distance situations. Take a look at these mismatched third down numbers:
- Penn State: ranked 10th in third-and-long rate
- USC: ranked 89th in third-and-long rate
Penn State also avoids third downs altogether at the nation’s second-highest rate, so we should expect the Nittany Lions to move the ball with relative ease in this game.
In terms of Penn State’s passing game, not much has been asked of Drew Allar, but he’s still shown dramatic improvements from his disappointing 2023 campaign.
Penn State ranks 15th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed, and the offensive line has consistently provided Allar with clean pockets.
However, it should be noted right tackle Anthony Donkoh was injured last week and will likely be replaced by Nolan Rucci, making his first career start.
If the offensive line does struggle without Donkoh, it could be problematic for Allar, who has taken a sack on 25% of his dropbacks versus pressure, per Sports Info Solutions.
USC ranks 123rd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate, however, so that’s unlikely to be a substantial problem in this particular matchup.
When Allar does throw the ball, expect him to attack underneath. Penn State is averaging just 4.4 throws per game at 15 or more yards downfield, and the secondary has been another area of improvement for the USC defense.
Opposing quarterbacks are completing 38.1% of their throws at 15 or more yards downfield against USC, ranked 53rd 一 not great, but competent, which is a step in the right direction for the Trojans.
When USC is on Offense
Head coach Lincoln Riley calls plays for USC and runs an aggressive pass-heavy scheme. According to Campus2Canton, the Trojans have a 13.6% pass rate over expected.
Miller Moss is certainly not Caleb Williams at quarterback, but he does have a deep receiving corps to work with which has allowed USC to maintain its explosive ability on offense.
Moss doesn’t take a ton of shots downfield 一 USC is averaging just 5.6 attempts per game at 15 or more yards downfield 一 but he has been incredibly efficient on those plays.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Moss ranks 12th in the nation with a 55.6% completion rate on throws of 15 or more yards.
Penn State ranks 21st in completion rate allowed at that depth, though the Nittany Lions have not faced a competent downfield passing team yet.
Since they ranked 126th by that metric in 2023 一 allowing a 50% downfield completion rate 一 it’s reasonable to remain skeptical of the early-season performance.
It’s also worth noting Penn State has been playing without free safety Kevin Winston Jr, arguably its most valuable defensive back, since Week 3. It hasn’t hurt yet, but this could be a matchup where his range in the deep secondary is missed.
Moss’ ability to challenge the Penn State secondary will also depend on USC’s ability to protect him, and that should be a good battle in the trenches based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- USC: ranked 27th in pressure rate allowed
- Penn State: ranked 28th in pressure rate generated
Although Riley’s offense leans heavily on the passing attack, he may pivot to more of the run game in this matchup, though Penn State's defensive approach will partially dictate that decision.
Due to Riley’s spread offense, the Trojans excel at forcing teams into light boxes, which runs counter to Penn State’s preferred approach under coordinator Tom Allen.
Based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, Penn State has stacked the box at a rate 32.7% above expected, the 24th-highest rate in the nation.
In this matchup, if Allen elects to stack the box unnecessarily based on the personnel, USC will simply pivot to a pass play before the snap. So if Allen wants to force USC to run the ball, he’ll need to match their personnel with a light box.
This is problematic for Penn State, as the Nittany Lions are allowing 5.9 yards per attempt to running backs with a light box, while USC’s ball carriers rank 28th (6.6 yards per attempt).
One of Penn State’s issues against the run has been inconsistent tackling 一 the Nittany Lions rank 88th in missed/broken tackle rate per Sports Info Solutions.
Final Thoughts on USC vs. Penn State Best Bets
If I had to bet against the spread I would take the points with USC, but my preferred action in this game is to take the over at 50.5 points.
Although both defenses appear to be improved this season, there’s enough evidence pointing to both offenses holding an edge that we should expect a relatively high-scoring game.
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