This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at this week’s College Game Day matchup between TCU and Kansas.
TCU vs Kansas Spread, current line:
TCU vs Kansas Best Bet Prediction:
Although TCU looks like the better team on paper, it's tough to trust them on the road with such a large spread 一 so take the points and bet Kansas against the spread, but be sure to shop around and try to get it at 7 points.
When TCU is on Offense
TCU head coach Sonny Dykes runs a version of the Air Raid offense, similar to his former boss Mike Leach.
Kansas has already faced a similar system against West Virginia 一 an offense run by Graham Harrell, who played quarterback under Leach and Dykes at Texas Tech.
The Jayhawks' performance against West Virginia did not inspire confidence, as they allowed over 500 yards of offense and 9.4 yards per pass attempt (a season-high for the Mountaineers).
The Air Raid offense relies on quick, short throws and Kansas has struggled to defend these plays. On throws within 10 yards of the line scrimmage, Kansas is allowing 6.8 yards per attempt, ranked 109th.
The key to slowing down TCU quarterback Max Duggan is creating pressure, but that’s not a strength of the Kansas defense.
Kansas ranks 78th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated.
When Kansas is on Offense
Kansas is an extremely run-heavy offense 一 though not in the traditional sense, as quarterback Jalon Daniels plays a significant role in the run game.
According to Campus2Canton, Kansas is running the ball at a 66% clip during a neutral game script this year.
Kansas’s run game was somewhat bottled up last week by Iowa State 一 but that did not come as a surprise, as the Cyclones lead the nation in opponent-adjusted EPA per rush attempt allowed, per Sports Info Solutions.
By that same metric, TCU ranks 85th 一 the second-worst run defense Kansas has faced.
When Daniels drops back to pass, expect him to have time to throw against a TCU defense struggling to generate pressure.
The Horned Frogs have generated a 19% pressure rate against FBS opponents, and rank 116th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate.
When TCU does generate pressure, it’s allowing 2.2 yards per attempt (ranked second in FBS), but that number jumps to 7.5 (ranked 53rd) when failing to create pressure, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Although TCU’s defense has fared well overall, it’s been susceptible to big plays. The Horned Frogs have allowed 20 or more yards on 10.1% of pass attempts, ranked 71st.
The Jayhawks offense ranks 26th in explosive pass rate (13.9%) and should be able to put up some numbers on the TCU defense.
Final Thoughts on TCU vs Kansas Best Bets
This should be a high-scoring, back-and-forth game which could come down to the last possession.
It’s tough to take a strong stance on either side of this type of game when the spread is within a touchdown, but if forced to choose I’ll take the home team with the points.
It’s also worth noting, Sonny Dykes was 3-9 against the spread as a road favorite of at least six points entering this season. He’s 1-0 this year, but that came on opening weekend against a truly terrible Colorado team with a 13.5-point spread which looks comically low considering how TCU has exceeded expectations this year.
Other College Football Betting Predictions for Week 6: