This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s dive into Tennessee at Pittsburgh, as the Vols look for revenge after Pitt’s 41-34 victory in Knoxville last season.
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh Spread, current line:
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh Best Bet Prediction:
If I had to bet this game against the spread, I would lean towards laying the points with Tennessee, but my recommended play in this matchup is to take the first half under at 33.5 points.
» Bet it now: Tennessee/Pittsburgh first-half under 33.5 points
When Tennessee is on Offense
Tennessee ran the nation’s fastest offense last year, averaging a play once every 20 seconds. They’ll try to push the pace and force Pittsburgh into a shootout.
The Vols are also an aggressive downfield passing team. In Week 1, Hendon Hooker threw 15 or more yards downfield on nine of his 25 attempts (36%).
In 2021, the Pittsburgh defense ranked 21st in completion percentage allowed 15 or more yards downfield (34.3%) and allowed the Vols to complete just one of seven passes at that distance in their meeting (Hooker was 1-3, Joe Milton 0-4).
In Week 1, West Virginia quarterback J.T. Daniels was just 5-13 (38%) throwing downfield 一 a sign that Pitt's defense may be able to continue that success.
Pat Narduzzi also tends to run a blitz-heavy defense 一 the Panthers brought extra pressure on 47% of West Virginia’s dropbacks last week, per Sports Info Solutions.
However, when Pitt blitzed in this matchup last year, Vols quarterbacks were 7-9 for 111 yards and zero sacks.
Perhaps Tennessee’s success against the blitz will force Pitt to change their identity on defense in this matchup.
When Pittsburgh is on Offense
Pittsburgh is going to be a more run-heavy offense this season with Frank Cignetti Jr. (previously at Boston College) taking over as offensive coordinator for Mark Whipple (now at Nebraska).
Last week against West Virginia, Pitt’s offensive line struggled to clear room for its ball carriers, as the Panthers averaged just 1.4 yards before contact per attempt, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Pitt attempted to establish the run against West Virginia with a 59% run rate in the first half. As a result, it was a sloppy first half which resulted in a 10-10 tie going into halftime.
Both teams lit up the scoreboard in the second half (the total hit 69 points), but only after Pitt’s run game failed.
Expect Pitt to lean on the run early in this matchup as well 一 partially because that’s Cignetti’s preferred approach, but also as a strategy for slowing down Tennessee’s fast-paced offense.
Unfortunately for the Panthers, Tennessee is likely up for the challenge of stopping the run. The Vols ranked 30th in the nation in opponent-adjusted rushing yards before contact allowed last season, per Sports Info Solutions.
Tennessee returns six starters on defense, and limited Ball State running backs to 0.8 yards before contact in Week 1.
Final Thoughts on Tennessee vs Pittsburgh Best Bets
If Pittsburgh joins Tennessee in a shootout, these teams could light up the scoreboard 一 that’s why I’m staying away from the full game total.
However, just like last week against West Virginia, Pittsburgh is likely to try (and fail) to establish the run. This should slow down the pace of the game in the first half, and for that reason, I’m taking the first half under at 33.5 points.
Other College Football Betting Predictions for Week 2:
