This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at this week’s primetime Pac-12 showdown between USC and Utah.
USC vs Utah Spread, current line:
USC vs Utah Best Bet Prediction:
There are two bets I like in this matchup: take USC at +3.5 points against the spread, and also take the under at 65 points.
When USC is on Offense
USC runs a balanced offense, with an even 50/50 run-pass split in neutral game situations, per Campus2Canton. However, the Trojans are significantly more explosive when Caleb Williams gets the passing game rolling.
The key to slowing down Williams is to generate consistent pressure. Take a look at Williams's numbers when under duress, via Sports Info Solutions:
- 48.7% completion rate (fourth in Pac-12)
- 5.4 yards per attempt (seventh)
- 31% success rate based on EPA (third)
USC’s offensive line has struggled to protect Williams, and the Trojans rank 123rd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Protecting Williams could be an issue, as the Utah pass rush will be USC’s toughest test by a wide margin. Check out the opponent-adjusted pressure rate ranks for USC’s opponents:
- Rice, 107th
- Stanford, 111th
- Fresno State, 75th
- Oregon State, 120th
- Arizona State, 110th
- Washington State, 87th
- Utah, 29th
Even those awful pass rush units caused some problems for USC at times 一 most notably Oregon State, which pressured Williams on 41% of his dropbacks. So we should expect Utah to have some success slowing down the Trojans' passing attack.
If the pass game struggles, USC should be able to lean on a rushing attack led by Travis Dye and Austin Jones.
Both ball carriers are averaging over six yards per carry and have a good matchup against a mediocre Utah run defense.
Utah has contacted ball carriers at or behind the line of scrimmage 34.7% of carries, ranked 89th in FBS, per Sports Info Solutions.
Dye is averaging 8.0 yards per attempt when he crosses the line of scrimmage untouched, while Jones is averaging 8.4 yards.
When Utah is on Offense
Utah is likely to lean on its rushing attack to help slow the game down and keep USC off the field.
With a traditional pro-style offense, Utah runs into stacked boxes at the 11th-highest rate in FBS. That trend caused problems last week against a strong UCLA defense, but USC shouldn’t put up much of a fight.
Here’s a few numbers from Sports Info Solutions to highlight the degree to which USC’s run defense has struggled:
- Ranked 123rd in yards per attempt allowed with a stacked box
- Ranked 126th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed
If Utah falls behind and is forced to lean on Cam Rising and the passing game, the edge shifts to USC’s defense.
Consider the pass protection matchup numbers, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Utah ranks 79th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed
- USC ranks 18th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated
Rising completed just four passes on 14 dropbacks versus pressure last week against UCLA 一 further incentive for the Utes to lean heavily on the run game in this matchup.
Final Thoughts on USC vs Utah Best Bets
Utah is living off its reputation right now, and is not the same physical team that dominates in the trenches 一 UCLA proved that last week as the far more physical team on both sides of the ball.
USC has some clear advantages on offense, and if the Trojans can build a lead and force Utah to play from behind, the Utes likely can’t compete.
Since both offenses hold an edge in the run game, and both defenses have the potential to slow down the passing attacks, under 65 points also looks like a strong play in this game.