This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at a key Pac-12 showdown between Utah and UCLA.
Utah vs UCLA Spread, current line:
Utah vs UCLA Best Bet Prediction:
Home underdogs are always enticing, especially with a veteran quarterback on your side 一 take the points and bet UCLA against the spread.
When Utah is on Offense
Utah runs a traditional pro-style offense and relies on the run game.
Due to its style of play, Utah runs the ball into a stacked box on 73% of its carries, the fourth highest rate in the nation among non-triple-option offenses, per Sports Info Solutions.
This style works for Utah at times, but the run game has not been a strength this season, as the Utes rank 71st in opponent-adjusted EPA per rush attempt.
The UCLA defense appears up for the challenge of stopping Utah based on these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ranked 33rd in yards per attempt allowed with a stacked box
- Ranked 20th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed
- Ranked 33rd in contact rate at or behind the line of scrimmage
When Utah throws the ball, Cam Rising should have plenty of time in the pocket against one of the nation’s worst pass-rush units. UCLA ranks 124th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated, per Sports Info Solutions.
The Bruins blitz at a relatively high rate, and may do so more in a close game. In a competitive game against South Alabama, UCLA brought extra pressure on 49% of the Jaguars’ dropbacks.
The Utes will be without tight end Brant Kuithe, who led the team with a 25% target share prior to his injury.
Like many tight ends, Kuithe saw increased usage versus two-high safety coverages (31% target share), and his absence could hurt Utah in that area against UCLA. The Bruins use two-high formations at a slightly above average rate (40% of plays outside the red zone), according to Sports Info Solutions.
When UCLA is on Offense
UCLA is a relatively pass-heavy offense, throwing the ball at a 57% rate in neutral game scripts, per Campus2Canton.
The Bruins' pass attack ranks 11th in the nation in opponent-adjusted EPA per pass play, according to Sports Info Solutions.
As is standard for Chip Kelly’s offense, Dorian Thompson-Robinson takes a traditional dropback (three or more steps) on just 35% of UCLA’s pass plays, among the lowest rates in the nation. This style of play could create issues for Utah’s defense, as it ranks 117th in adjusted net yards per attempt on non-traditional dropbacks, per Sports Info Solutions.
If you’re inclined to evaluate Utah’s defense based on last week’s dominance of Oregon State, be aware the Beavers use traditional dropbacks at the nation’s seventh-highest rate.
Oregon State’s pro-style system played right into Utah’s hands, and UCLA is a near polar opposite.
Utah blitzes at the nation’s 13th-highest rate (40%) but it will probably dial back the aggressiveness due to Thompson-Robinson’s athletic ability.
Against a similar quarterback in Florida’s Anthony Richardson, Utah dropped its blitz rate to 19%.
Although Utah’s pass rush is effective, it will likely be negated by UCLA’s ability to get the ball out quickly. UCLA has allowed pressure at the nation’s fourth-lowest rate when the defense does not blitz (12.3%).
Final Thoughts on Utah vs UCLA Best Bets
Utah won last year’s meeting easily, but UCLA was forced to start back quarterback Ethan Garbers.
It’s taken Chip Kelly some time to build UCLA into the program he envisioned when he arrived, but it looks like they’re turning a corner and the Bruins have been underestimated a lot lately. As a home underdog, UCLA has won four of its last five games outright.
On the flip side, Utah is 2-5 against the spread, with four outright losses, as a road favorite since the start of 2021.
Although it should be a close game, these trends point in UCLA's direction. Take UCLA against the spread, and it may even be worth considering a bet on the money line.
Other College Football Betting Predictions for Week 6: