After the Week 0 teaser, the full college football slate is back this weekend, beginning with some key games on Thursday night.
This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at West Virginia at Pittsburgh, The Backyard Brawl, which returns for the first time since 2011, when Geno Smith led West Virginia to victory over Aaron Donald and Pittsburgh.
West Virginia at Pittsburgh Over/Under, current line:
West Virginia at Pittsburgh Over/Under Prediction:
Both teams are breaking in new quarterbacks and new offensive coordinators, so expect some sloppy play and take the under at 51 points in the West Virginia versus Pittsburgh game on Thursday night.
When West Virginia is on Offense
Former USC and Georgia quarterback J.T. Daniels teamed up with his former USC offensive coordinator Graham Harrell this offseason. They’ll be running Harrell’s version of the air-raid offense, which means the Mountaineers' offense should run at a considerably faster pace than a season ago.
West Virginia ranked 86th in seconds per play in 2021, while USC ranked 25th
Pitt returns seven starters on defense 一 most notably dominant defensive tackle Calijah Kancey 一 from a unit which ranked sixth in the nation in opponent-adjusted EPA per rush attempt allowed.
Harrell wants to run a pass-heavy offense, but he may be forced to abandon the run entirely in this matchup.
When Pittsburgh is on Offense
Another former USC quarterback, Kedon Slovis, takes over at Pittsburgh but will be challenged with learning a new offense from Frank Cignetti Jr., who spent the past two seasons at Boston College.
Cignetti runs a traditional pro-style offense, which will be a significant adjustment for Slovis.
In 2021, Boston College quarterbacks took a traditional dropback at a 70% rate, compared to 47% for Slovis, per Sports Info Solutions.
It’s also worth noting Slovis struggled on traditional dropbacks, averaging 5.8 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), and a 4.3% interception rate compared to 6.5 ANY/A and a 1.3% interception rate on all other plays.
Cignetti traditionally runs a slow offense 一 which may slow down further with a quarterback still learning the system. Boston College ranked 88th in plays per second last year 一 Pitt ranked 23rd.
Final Thoughts on West Virginia at Pittsburgh Best Bets
I’ll bet this game more conservatively than I might if it occurred a few weeks into the year due to the uncertainty created by the turnover at quarterback and offensive coordinator.
However, those changes definitely increase the probability of some sloppy offensive play, especially for Pitt, with Slovis learning a new system. The under definitely looks like the safest bet in this matchup.