It’s that time of year to start looking at player prop bets for the upcoming 2023 NFL season.
In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some over and under Future bets worth considering at each position group.
Up first: which quarterback prop bet OVERS are likely to hit?
Desmond Ridder Passing Yards Prop & Why You Should Bet the Over:
Current Passing Yards Over/Under for Desmond Ridder:
- 2600.5 (+100) on DraftKings Sportsbook
Why You Should Bet the Over:
- On pace for 3,000 yards last year
- Consistent production from Arthur Smith’s quarterbacks
- Job security
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
Desmond Ridder started four games for the Falcons at the end of the 2022 season, posting 708 passing yards. That’s 177 yards per game, putting him on pace for 3,009 passing yards over the course of a full season.
If Ridder maintained that pace in 2022, he would only need 15 games to hit the over, giving us some margin for error if he were to miss time with an injury.
This low total is partially due to an expected run-heavy offense following the addition of first-round pick Bijan Robinson, but Atlanta’s run game was already among the best in the game last year.
Atlanta led the league in rushing attempts and ranked fourth in yards per attempt in 2022. So the addition of Robinson likely has minimal impact on the run game. If anything, Robinson’s ability as a receiver may actually give a boost to Ridder’s pass game output.
#2 Reason to bet the Over:
Although Arthur Smith’s reputation for leaning on the run game is well documented, that hasn’t stopped his quarterback from putting up decent passing numbers.
In his four years as an offensive coordinator and head coach, Smith’s quarterbacks have combined for at least 2,900 yards each season.
| Year | Tm | QBs | Pass Yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | ATL | Mariota/Ridder | 2,927 |
| 2021 | ATL | Matt Ryan | 3,968 |
| 2020 | TEN | Ryan Tannehill | 3,819 |
| 2019 | TEN | Tannehill/Mariota | 3,956 |
#3 Reason to be the Over:
We should also have confidence in Ridder's ability to hang on to the starting job throughout the year. 30-year-old backup Taylor Heinicke has established himself as a replacement-level journeyman at best.
It's also worth noting Heinicke has no prior experience with Smith or offensive coordinator Dave Ragone, as Mariota did last year.
That lack of experience in the system diminishes the likelihood the coaching staff reaches the point where it feels more comfortable with Heinicke, even if Ridder's production is unimpressive.
Atlanta has every incentive to let Ridder sink or swim 一 either he establishes himself as their long-term starter, or he leads them into a position to draft his replacement.
» Bet the Desmond Ridder Passing Yards Over
Jalen Hurts Passing Touchdowns Prop & Why You Should Bet the Over:
Current Passing Touchdowns Over/Under for Jalen Hurts:
- 22.5 (-110) on DraftKings Sportsbook
Why You Should Bet the Over:
- Reached 22 touchdowns in 15 games last year
- Potential for increased passing
- Surprisingly low red zone touchdown rate last year
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
Jalen Hurts missed two games last year due to injury and still posted 22 passing touchdowns.
Obviously, injuries are possible again, but given last year’s production we should feel confident he’s capable of reaching the over if he stays healthy and potentially even if he misses a game or two.
#2 Reason to bet the Over:
The Eagles ramped up their passing attack last year as Hurts became more comfortable in the offense.
Take a look at their passing rates with Hurts on the field in the first through third quarters over the last two years:
- 2021: 49.8%
- 2022: 58.1%
At worst, that rate should remain steady, and it’s possible the Eagles will increase the passing rate if their confidence in Hurts demonstrates continued growth.
We should also consider the possibility of a need for more passing. The Eagles had a league-high 58 drives while leading by 10 points or more, 31% of their total drives.
It’s tough to replicate that level of dominance, so a few more close games should elevate all of Hurts’s passing numbers.
#3 Reason to bet the Over:
The Eagles made 59 trips to the red zone last year with only nine of those trips producing a passing touchdown for Hurts, according to TruMedia.
Only 18.8% of his red zone passes resulted in a score, which ranked 30th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks.
Some of that is the result of play calling, but there’s probably some bad luck baked in as well. Over the previous two seasons, 25% of his red zone passes went in for scores.
» Bet the Jalen Hurts Passing Touchdowns Over
Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop & Why You Should Bet the Over:
Current Passing Yards Over/Under for Justin Herbert:
- 4450.5 (-110) yards on DraftKings Sportsbook
Why You Should Bet the Over:
- Strong track record
- Potential for a poor run game
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
Justin Herbert cleared this number in each of the past two seasons and fell just 114 yards shy in 15 games as a rookie.
His track record is well established at this point. For him to fall short of the over, it would take either an injury or an unforeseen shift in the Chargers’ offensive game plan.
#2 Reason to bet the Over:
While a shift in the game plan is always possible, it would seem unlikely given the Chargers’ roster construction.
Los Angeles spent their first-round pick on wide receiver Quentin Johnston while largely ignoring the running back room.
As a result, 28-year-old Austin Ekeler returns as a lead back with limited depth behind him. Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller, and Larry Rountree have been unimpressive as fill-ins for Ekeler in the past, yet all three return.
Ekeler has been healthy in recent years, but he’s getting up there in age. Should anything happen to him, this would likely devolve into one of the league’s worst rushing attacks.