It’s that time of year to start looking at player prop bets for the upcoming 2022 NFL season.
In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group.
Up first: which Quarterbacks are likely to go OVER their passing yards total?
Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop Bet: Why you should bet the over
Current Passing Yards Over/Under for Justin Fields:
- 3299.5 passing yards at BetMGM
- 3335.5 passing yards at DraftKings Sportsbook
Why you should bet the Over:
- Bears new coaching staff will help Fields
- Fields should improve his performance versus pressure
In his 10 starts in 2021, Justin Fields averaged 187 yards per game, putting him on pace for 3,179 over a full 17-game schedule. He would need only a moderate improvement in that pace to hit the over on these props.
#1 Reason to Bet the Over for Justin Fields
Although we don’t know much about the Bears’ offensive coaches 一 offensive coordinator Luke Getsy will be calling plays for the first time 一 it’s hard to imagine this staff isn’t an upgrade over Matt Nagy and his crew.
Nothing epitomized Nagy’s incompetency more than the game plan in Fields’s first career start against Cleveland, during which 17% of his pass attempts came as RPOs.
This was problematic because Fields didn’t use RPOs often at Ohio State (8% of his pass attempts) and struggled when he did (-5.8 EPA on RPOs).
Fields will likely have better game plans to execute under Getsy than he did during his rookie year.
#2 Reason to Bet the Over for Justin Fields
Although Fields struggled as a rookie, it wasn’t unexpected due to his inability to handle pressure at Ohio State.
During his final season in college, Fields was sacked or scrambled on 33% of his dropbacks versus pressure 一 a rate which climbed to a league-high 42% in his rookie year.
However, Fields showed improved willingness to stay in the pocket versus pressure as the season wore on. Through his first eight games, his sack/scramble rate sat at 49%, per TruMedia 一 a rate which would obviously suppress his passing numbers.
Over his final four starts, Fields’s sack/scramble rate dropped to 33%.
If Fields continues to become more comfortable keeping his eyes downfield and throwing the ball in the face of pressure, his passing numbers should continue to climb 一 and we have some reason to believe a more competent coaching staff will help Fields’s continued development in this area.
» Bet the Justin Fields Passing Yards Over
Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop Bet: Why you should bet the over
Current Passing Yards Over/Under for Derek Carr:
- 4499.5 passing yards at BetMGM
- 4400.5 passing yards at FanDuel Sportsbook
- 4450.5 passing yards at DraftKings Sportsbook
Why you should bet the Over:
- Head coach Josh McDaniels adapts to his players
- Davante Adams provides an upgrade at receiver
Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is more than 300 yards lower than his yardage total from the 2021 season 一 a year in which he dealt with a coaching change and the loss of his leading receiver (Henry Ruggs III) after just seven games.
If Carr could top 4,800 yards with those hurdles, the over on these props look like a good bet.
#1 Reason to Bet the Over for Derek Carr
The relatively modest numbers for Carr may be a reflection of some recency bias in regards to the expected impact Josh McDaniels has on the Las Vegas offense. Over the past two seasons in New England, McDaniels’s offenses ranked 31st and 25th in pass attempts. And even in his final seasons with Tom Brady, McDaniels scaled back his aggressiveness in the passing game.
However, McDaniels was also Brady’s offensive coordinator during some of his record-setting seasons 一 most notably his 50-touchdown performance in 2007.
McDaniels has a strong track record of adapting his offense to fit his weapons, and he’ll have plenty to work with in Las Vegas.
#2 Reason to Bet the Over for Derek Carr
Davante Adams will obviously be one of those weapons, and offers a significant upgrade for Carr, especially for his ability to produce after the catch.
Based on route-adjusted data from TruMedia, Raiders pass-catchers picked up 3.8% more yardage after the catch than expected, ranked ninth in the league. That production was despite Zay Jones generating 20% fewer yards after the catch than expected on his 47 receptions, which ranked 90th in the NFL.
The addition of Adams (3.2% above expected) will further enhance the team’s ability to produce explosive plays, even on Carr’s shorter throws.
» Bet the Derek Carr Passing Yards Over
Russell Wilson Passing Touchdowns Prop Bet: Why you should bet the over
Current Passing Touchdowns Over/Under for Russell Wilson:
- 31.5 passing touchdowns at BetMGM
- 31.5 passing touchdowns at FanDuel Sportsbook
- 31.5 passing touchdowns at DraftKings Sportsbook
Why you should bet the Over:
- Playing behind better offensive line in Denver
- Elite competition in AFC West could force high-scoring games
Although Russell Wilson will have to adjust to new surroundings this year, his track record in Seattle and upgrade in supporting cast should give us confidence he hits the over on these passing touchdown props.
#1 Reason to Bet the Over for Russell Wilson
The upgrade in overall surrounding talent is the biggest factor in projecting strong numbers for Wilson this season. Although Denver does not boast an elite offensive line 一 we placed them 16th in our unit rankings 一 it’s an upgrade over Seattle.
In 2021, Seattle’s offensive line allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 25% of pass plays, ranked 24th in the league according to TruMedia.
Wilson likes to hold on to the ball 一 30% of his attempts occurred at least three seconds into the play last year 一 and Denver’s line should provide him better protection on those extended plays.
#2 Reason to Bet the Over for Russell Wilson
In the AFC West, Wilson is also likely to play in higher scoring games this season, as he’ll be forced to keep pace with the other prolific offenses in his division.
Divisional games in the AFC West averaged 47.9 points per game last year, compared to 46.3 in the NFC West. And six of the 12 AFC West divisional games reached at least 54 points, compared to only two in the NFC West.
Even in Pete Carroll’s conservative offense, with declining talent around him, Wilson reached at least 31 touchdowns in four of his final five seasons in Seattle. Based on that track record, and the improved talent and scoring environments in Denver, we should feel good betting the over on his touchdown props.