In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Thursday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
CONSIDER THE UNDER ON LEIGHTON VANDER ESCH’S TACKLES PROP
Leighton Vander Esch’s combined tackles prop is available at 4.5 on BetMGM for the Thursday night game against the New Orleans Saints, despite having topped that number only four times in 11 games.
One of the reasons to consider the under is the possibility the Dallas Cowboys roll to an easy victory over the injury-plagued Saints. New Orleans is winless with Trevor Siemian at quarterback and has not been competitive over the last two weeks.
Due to Vander Esch’s extensive injury history, he tends to get pulled off the field when Dallas is in control of the game. He’s played just 32% of the Cowboys’ snaps when Dallas holds a double-digit lead, according to Sports Info Solutions.
The Saints' game plan could also limit Vander Esch’s opportunities in this game. New Orleans ranks 27th in plays per game (61.3) and will have an incentive to play even slower on Thursday to limit possessions for the Cowboys’ potent offense.
Vander Esch’s opportunities could also be limited by the Saints’ preferred formations. Vander Esch disproportionately gets on the field versus two tight-end sets, which makes up just 27% of New Orleans’s offense.
When the Cowboys face two tight-end sets, Vander Esch is on the field 65% of time, compared to 47% when only one tight end is on the field, per Sports Info Solutions.
All these factors work in favor of the under on Vander Esch’s tackles prop bet, which looks like a strong play on Thursday night.
CONSIDER THE UNDER ON DANIEL JONES’S PASSING YARDS PROP BET
The New York Giants have won two of their last three contests, but it’s primarily been the defense keeping them in games. Daniel Jones hasn’t thrown for over 240 yards since Week 6, and the Miami Dolphins appear to be a tough matchup for him.
According to TruMedia/PFF, Miami blitzes at the second-highest rate (37%) and also generates pressure on blitzes at the second-highest rate (48%).
The Dolphins’ blitz-heavy game plan is likely to cause issues for Jones, who ranks 27th in yards per attempt versus the blitz (6.4) and 21st in sack rate (7.2%).
Miami’s average time to pressure of 2.3 seconds is also likely to cause issues for the Giants passing game, as it will force Jones to get rid of the ball quickly.
When Jones has at least three seconds to throw, he’s fairly effective (8.1 yards per attempt), but those opportunities are hard to come by against Miami.
Time to Throw Yds/Att Rank Under 3 Seconds 6.7 29th 3+ Seconds 8.1 18th
We recently saw Jones post low yardage totals against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (167 yards) and the Carolina Panthers (203 yards) 一 two defenses which rank first and sixth, respective in blitz rate.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON DEVONTA SMITH’S RECEIVING YARDS PROP BET
Philadelphia Eagles rookie receiver DeVonta Smith has lined up in the slot on 41% of his targets, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Due to his usage, he’ll likely be lined up against New York Jets’ rookie slot corner Michael Carter II throughout portions of the game. Based on Carter’s performance, this looks like a mismatch Philly should attempt to exploit.
According to Sports Info Solutions, when lined up in the slot, Carter is allowing a 71.0% completion rate and 8.8 yards per target. The only other slot corner allowing a completion percentage over 70% and at least eight yards per target is Arizona Cardinals rookie Marco Wilson.
It appears opposing coaches have taken notice of Carter’s issues, as we’ve seen teams target the slot at a high rate in recent weeks. In Week 10, the Buffalo Bills even moved Stefon Diggs into the slot for 50% of his routes, well above his season average of 33%.
The over on DeVonta Smith’s receiving yards prop bet should be easily attainable if Eagles’ coaching staff can find ways to create consistent matchups with Carter.
CONSIDER THE UNDER ON NAJEE HARRIS’S RUSHING YARDS PROP BET
The Pittsburgh Steelers feed Najee Harris the ball whenever possible, but he’s unlikely to see much action in the run game against an improved Baltimore Ravens defense.
The rushing yards under has been a winner for starting running backs against the Ravens in six of their last seven games.
In that span, Baltimore is allowing just 1.4 yards before contact per attempt, according to Sports Info Solutions. Last week Baltimore held the Cleveland Browns to -0.2 yards before contact per attempt 一 and Cleveland’s offensive line is substantially better equipped to compete with the Baltimore front seven than Pittsburgh.
Over the last six weeks, Harris’s rushing yards prop has been available at an average of 77.5 yards. Only one running back (Dalvin Cook) has topped 60 yards against Baltimore this season.
Based on the recent success of Baltimore’s run defense and the likelihood Pittsburgh is forced to abandon the run, if Harris’s yardage prop is available anywhere north of 60 yards, take the under.
