It’s that time of year to start looking at player prop bets for the upcoming 2023 NFL season.
In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some over and under future bets worth considering at each position group.
Up next: which wide receiver prop bet UNDERS are likely to hit?
Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Prop: Why You Should Bet the Under:
Current Receiving Yards Over/Under for Allen Lazard:
- 649.5 receiving yards at BetMGM
Why You Should Bet the Under:
- Limited track record
- Aaron Rodgers heavily favors his WR1
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
Allen Lazard has familiarity with Aaron Rodgers working in his favor, but that never led to huge numbers in Green Bay.
Lazard’s career with the Packers peaked at 788 yards last year, but that production was made possible by him operating as the No. 1 receiver for a significant portion of the year.
Prior to 2022, Lazard’s production peaked at 513 yards on 60 targets.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
Lazard is, at best, the Jets' No. 2 weapon in the passing game behind Garrett Wilson. This sets a relatively low ceiling for his production based on Rodgers’ No. 2 weapons in recent years.
Take a look at the Packers’ second-leading receiver over the last six seasons:
- 2022: Christian Watson, 611 yards
- 2021: Lazard, 513 yards
- 2020: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, 690 yards
- 2019: Lazard, 477 yards
- 2018: Jimmy Graham, 636 yards
- 2017: Randall Cobb, 653 yards
The last time Rodgers helped two receivers easily clear 650 yards was in 2016 with Jordy Nelson (1,257 yards) and Davante Adams (997 yards) 一 which was also the last time Rodgers had two receivers worthy of the WR1 label.
Even with Corey Davis retired, Mecole Hardman will challenge Lazard for targets behind Wilson.
» Bet the Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Under
Cooper Kupp Receiving Touchdowns Prop: Why You Should Bet the Under:
Current Receiving Touchdowns Over/Under for Cooper Kupp:
- 9.5 touchdowns at DraftKings
Why You Should Bet the Under:
- Inconsistent touchdown production
- The Rams are bad
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
For various reasons, Cooper Kupp has reached double-digit touchdowns only twice in his six years.
As a 30-year-old coming off an injury, there’s no reason to expect Kupp to have one of the most productive scoring seasons of his career.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
Over the last five seasons, there have been 33 receivers to reach double-digit touchdowns.
Only one (2019 Kenny Golladay) did so for a team ranked in the bottom half of the league in scoring offense (the Lions ranked 18th).
The Rams ranked 27th in scoring offense last year, and it wasn’t any better when Kupp was healthy. During the first nine weeks of the year, with Kupp and Matthew Stafford on the field, they ranked 29th in points per game.
Los Angeles did nothing to improve the offense in the offseason, so a significant leap in scoring production does not seem likely.
» Bet the Cooper Kupp Receiving Touchdowns Under
Quentin Johnston Receiving Yards Prop: Why You Should Bet the Under:
Current Receiving Yards Over/Under for Quentin Johnston:
- 575.5 receiving yards at BetMGM
- 600.5 receiving yards at FanDuel Sportsbook
Why You Should Bet the Under:
- Inconsistent performance at TCU
- Josh Palmer is in the way
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
Although Quentin Johnston looks like a prototypical outside receiver at 6-foot-3, 208 pounds, he never consistently played like it at TCU.
Over the last two seasons, Johnston caught 72.9% of his catchable targets at 10 or more yards downfield, which ranked 18th out of 24 qualified Big 12 receivers, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Johnston’s strength is producing after the catch, as he generated 26.9% more yards after the catch than expected based on route-adjusted data via Sports Info Solutions.
Unfortunately, that skill set doesn’t match the Chargers' immediate needs, and he’ll likely be developed for his downfield potential.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
As long as Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are healthy, it looks like Johnston will compete with Josh Palmer for snaps as the third receiver 一 but that’s not a competition likely to swing in Johnston’s favor.
Head coach Brandon Staley recently had this to say about Palmer, via The Orange County Register:
“We feel like Josh is an elite player… There’s a trust factor. Justin [Herbert] will wait for him. Justin now knows where he can hit Josh in that sweet spot.”
In addition to the trust that’s already been developed between Palmer and Herbert, Johnston may struggle to fit into Palmer’s role in the offense.
Take a look at the air yards per target for the Chargers’ leading receivers last year, via TruMedia:
- Williams: 12.6
- Palmer: 11.0
- Allen: 6.9
As we’ve already established, Johnston does not excel at stretching the field, so it may be difficult for him to quickly steal snaps away from Palmer in this offense.
Johnston’s quickest path to playing time may be an injury to Allen, as Allen’s role would be a better fit for Johnston’s current strengths.