- Buffalo has used 12 personnel on a league-high 50.0% of their snaps and a league-high 43.5% of passing plays so far through two weeks.
- Washington has used 11 personnel on 73% of all plays (#7 highest) and on 84% of pass plays (#7 highest).
Warren Sharp’s game previews are unlike anything you’ll find anywhere in the industry, and this year he will be sharing his write-ups along with betting picks on Sharp Football Analysis.
Warren’s betting recommendations have seen sustained success, exceeding 58% wins across over 2,700 betting recommendations in his 17 years.
He has won 62.3% of NFL totals releases from 2006 through 2022 from his model, including exceeding a 70% win rate each of the last three seasons:
- 37-15 record (71%) in 2022
- 23-5 (82%) in 2021
- 28-9 (76%) in 2020
Washington Commanders vs. Buffalo Bills Week 3 Betting Preview:
Want to see something concerning?
Look at Josh Allen’s target depth by year:
- 2020: 8.5 air yds/att
- 2021: 8.2 air yds/att
- 2022: 9.2 air yds/att
- 2023: 6.4 air yds/att
Josh Allen’s rate of passing 20+ yards downfield:
- 2020: 11.7%
- 2021: 11.5%
- 2022: 14.1%
- 2023: 6.4%
A fraction of this is explained by more TE and RB targets in 2023, and those targets inherently have a lower target depth.
But that doesn’t explain why 18% of his WR targets are behind the line of scrimmage, by far the highest rate of his career. This rate was only 8% last year.
Against Washington, Buffalo needs to open the offense more.
In 2023, look at passing splits by target depth and where the Washington defense ranks:
