Bills vs. Dolphins Week 4 Betting Preview

Warren Sharp’s game previews are unlike anything you’ll find anywhere in the industry, and this year he will be sharing his write-ups along with betting picks on Sharp Football Analysis.

Warren’s betting recommendations have seen sustained success, exceeding 58% wins across over 2,700 betting recommendations in his 17 years.

He has won 62.3% of NFL totals releases from 2006 through 2022 from his model, including exceeding a 70% win rate each of the last three seasons:

• 37-15 record (71%) in 2022
• 23-5 (82%) in 2021
• 28-9 (76%) in 2020

Bills vs. Dolphins Week 4 Betting Preview:

This is the first game of the season the Bills will have played an offense that is not ranked bottom five in either passing, rushing, or both.

The Bills played the:

• Jets offense (#29 passing, #26 rushing)
• Raiders offense (#8 passing, #28 rushing)
• Commanders offense (#28 passing, #6 rushing)

Miami’s offense ranks #1 passing and #1 rushing and #1 on early downs and #1 overall.

One other thing these three prior opponents have in common is they all rank bottom 10 inside the red zone:

• WAS: #23
• LV: #25
• NYJ: #29

Miami’s offense ranks #2 in my red zone metric, which is a combination of a variety of factors.

Like many people, I like to look at red zone TD rates, but I don’t stop there.

I also like to look at per-play efficiency metrics inside the red zone such as success rate and EPA. And Miami ranks top-5 in both of those metrics.

Lastly, I like to look at how frequently trips are made. Because you could be a team like the Browns, who rank top five in most red zone efficiency metrics but rarely actually drive down into the red zone. What good is being great if the sample size is limited and a team is unlikely to drive there often in a game?

Well, the Dolphins rank top five in red zone drive frequency.

It’s easy to suggest that this isn’t an offense like the Bills defense has faced this season, but that is a severe understatement.

The Jets and Commanders are literally the two worst third down offenses in the NFL (#31 and #32). They also rank #30 and #32 in pass protection.

And like my red zone metrics, my pass pro metrics include a variety of factors.

Both the Jets and Commanders allow top-10 rates of pressure. Both of their QBs rank #25 or worse in EPA when pressured. And both are well below average in the rate of pressures that become sacks. Washington is dead last.

And this is not a “well of course because Sam Howell was terrible vs. the Bills last week.”

Prior to the Bills game, Howell was sacked on 38.5% of his pressured dropbacks, which was worst in the NFL.

The Dolphins, on the other hand, rank #1 in pass pro.

And it’s not just that. They rank top two in every one of these metrics: