Sharp Football's Rich Hribrar breaks down this Bills vs Dolphins AFC Wild Card Playoff matchup:
The Bills and Dolphins split their head-to-head games in the regular season. Miami won at home back in Week 3 21-19 while the Bills held their ground at home in Week 15 with a 32-29 win.
So much of this game orbited around the health of Tua Tagovailoa and whether or not he would play. With the Dolphins officially ruling Tagovailoa out for Sunday's playoff game, it's obvious Miami's offense will have challenges:
- With Tagovailoa on the field, Miami has averaged 6.7 yards per play
- With Teddy Bridgewater at QB, Miami averaged 5.9 yards per play
- With Skylar Thompson at QB, Miami averaged just 4.5 yards per play
The largest area of weakness for Miami through their quarterback shuffle this season has been performance on third downs:
- With Tua in the game, 40.6% of their set of downs have reached third down while they have converted 39.8% and 32.3% of third and longs.
- With Bridgewater in the game, 42.2% of their set of downs have reached third down with a 25.9% conversion rate and a 13.3% rate on third and long.
- With Thompson in, 50.6% of their set of downs reach third down while the team has a 31.7% conversion rate and a 7.7% rate on third and long situations.
Miami’s defense also has just not traveled at all this season.
The Dolphins allowed 5.8 yards per play on the road (25th) and 2.58 points per drive in those games. Only the Bears were worse (2.77 points allowed per drive on the road).
Miami has allowed opponents to score on 45.9% of their drives on the road (31st) with a touchdown on 29.6% of those possessions (30th).
The Dolphins have forced a turnover on just 7.6% of opponent drives (30th and the worst of all playoff teams) while they had just two takeaways on the road all season, the fewest in the league.
The Bills have not been as pristine offensively as they were in 2021, but they are still at the front of the league in just about all categories.
Buffalo is third in yards per play (6.1), second in points per drive (2.51), and second in rate of scoring drives (45.0%).
At home, all of those go up as they have averaged a league-high 6.5 yards per play, 2.56 points per drive (second), and have scored on 47.3% of their drives (third).
» Read the full Bills vs Dolphins Worksheet breakdown
Bills vs Dolphins Prediction
The Bills are predicted to win this AFC Wild Card game with a 88.8% implied probability based on current betting lines. The moneyline model also predicts the Bills will win with 79% confidence.
» Bet it Now: Bills vs Dolphins
Bills vs Dolphins Odds, Spread, Total & Moneyline
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Dolphins | +13 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +550 |
| Bills | -13 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -800 |
Bills vs Dolphins Team Comparison:
| Miami | Rank | @ | Buffalo | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | Spread | -10.5 | ||
| 17 | Implied Total | 27.5 | ||
| 23.4 | 11 | Points/Gm | 28.4 | 2 |
| 23.5 | 24 | Points All./Gm | 17.9 | 2 |
| 59.4 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 64.8 | 12 |
| 63.9 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.3 | 11 |
| 6.1 | 2 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.1 | 3 |
| 5.3 | 14 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 9 |
| 38.65% | 25 | Rush% | 41.47% | 18 |
| 61.35% | 8 | Pass% | 58.53% | 15 |
| 38.86% | 6 | Opp. Rush % | 38.82% | 5 |
| 61.14% | 27 | Opp. Pass % | 61.18% | 28 |
Bills Best Bets Against the Spread
- The Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Bills have covered the 2Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Bills have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+5.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Bills have hit the 2H Game Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 93% ROI)
Dolphins Best Bets Against the Spread:
- The Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Dolphins have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.40 Units / 40% ROI)
First & Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction & Bet:
Dawson Knox (TE, Bills) is our pick for the 1st TD Scorer bet in this AFC Wild Card Weekend matchup.
James Cook (RB, Bills) is our pick for an anytime TD Scorer bet in this AFC Wild Card Weekend matchup.
» Get Anytime & 1st TD Scorer Bets for every Wild Card game
Bills Against the Spread Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 8-7 (+0.3 Units / 1.7% ROI).
- Bills are 13-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 4.77% ROI
- Bills are 6-10 when betting the Over for -5 Units / -28.41% ROI
- Bills are 10-6 when betting the Under for +3.4 Units / 19.32% ROI
Dolphins Against the Spread Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins have gone 9-8 (+0.1 Units / 0.53% ROI).
- Dolphins are 9-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 0.3% ROI
- Dolphins are 8-9 when betting the Over for -1.9 Units / -10.16% ROI
- Dolphins are 9-8 when betting the Under for +0.2 Units / ROI
Continue reading from BetMGM's Bills vs Dolphins game breakdown
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