- The Browns are 3-25 (11%) when losing at halftime since 2019 and have covered only 19% (5-22 ATS).
- The Bengals are 19-1 (95%) when winning at halftime the last two years (best in the NFL) and have covered 90% of those games (18-2 ATS).
Warren Sharp’s game previews are unlike anything you’ll find anywhere in the industry, and this year he will be sharing his write-ups along with betting picks on Sharp Football Analysis.
Warren’s betting recommendations have seen sustained success, exceeding 58% wins across over 2,700 betting recommendations in his 17 years.
He has won 62.3% of NFL totals releases from 2006 through 2022 from his model, including exceeding a 70% win rate each of the last three seasons:
- 37-15 record (71%) in 2022
- 23-5 (82%) in 2021
- 28-9 (76%) in 2020
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns Week 1 Betting Preview:
The Browns are 5-1 vs. the Bengals since Kevin Stefanski became head coach, and Cleveland is 5-0 at home vs. the Bengals since 2018.
Their defense has done a good job keeping a high-powered Bengals offense in check, holding Joe Burrow’s squad to an average of only 17 points per game over the last four meetings.
And that was a Browns defense with DC Joe Woods and worse personnel.
The Browns upgraded to DC Jim Schwartz and added a variety of new defenders this offseason including Dalvin Tomlinson, Za’Darius Smith, Shelby Harris, and Juan Thornhill.
Returning from a calf injury, Burrow could be 100% and play carefree football. But there are also worlds where that doesn’t happen.
Such as him being 100% but still playing cautiously to not cause re-injury, and playing tentative and not moving around the pocket as much or scrambling as much.
There is another world where he’s not actually 100% but something close to it, and it actually impacts his performance to a small degree.
We just don’t know where he falls, but there’s a non-zero chance that even if he practices in full and is ruled “fully healed,” he doesn’t play at his 100% level.
Burrow’s Week 1 performances have certainly been more down than up in the NFL.
In his rookie year, he averaged 5.4 YPA, threw 0 TDs, 1 INT, took 3 sacks, and lost 16-13 vs. the Chargers.
Naturally, we wouldn’t expect a rookie to light the world on fire.
But just last year, he averaged only 6.4 YPA, threw 2 TDs but 4 INTs, took 7 sacks, and lost 20-23 to Mitch Trubisky’s Steelers.
In between, he took 5 sacks but beat the Vikings in 2021 by 3 points, 27-24, in a game where he threw a clean 2:0 TD:INT and 9.7 YPA.
The 2021 Vikings, however, ranked 30th in early down defense that year and couldn’t stop the run (25th).
So despite Burrow being elite, in Week 1 the Bengals haven’t lit the world on fire in any of their games.
We didn’t see Burrow this preseason as he was nursing his injury, but we did see Deshaun Watson.
