Warren Sharp’s game previews are unlike anything you’ll find anywhere in the industry, and this year he will be sharing his write-ups along with betting picks on Sharp Football Analysis.
Warren’s betting recommendations have seen sustained success, exceeding 58% wins across over 2,700 betting recommendations in his 17 years.
He has won 62.3% of NFL totals releases from 2006 through 2022 from his model, including exceeding a 70% win rate each of the last three seasons:
- 37-15 record (71%) in 2022
- 23-5 (82%) in 2021
- 28-9 (76%) in 2020
This season, Warren is:
- 41-31 (56.9%) on NFL
- 179-138 (56.5%) on all NFL (props, totals, sides combined)
- Up 35.6 positions: a $100 bettor is up $3,558
Ravens vs. Browns Week 10 Betting Preview & Recommendation
244 Baltimore Ravens first half team total Over 10.5 +105 (0.5 units) and 244 Baltimore Ravens first half -3 -117 (0.5 units)
Lamar Jackson has played the Browns in 5 full games since 2020. He missed the Week 15 game last year due to injury and was injured in the first quarter of their Week 14 game of 2021.
In these 5 games, the Ravens are 5-0.
They are averaging 30.4 ppg.
They are averaging 17 ppg in the first half of games.
Jackson has averaged +0.14 EPA/dropback with 8.3 YPA.
He’s also tacked on 6.2 YPC on the ground with a 55% success rate and scored 4 TDs.
In his game way back in Week 4 vs. this same Browns defense, prior to when the Ravens offense was truly humming, Lamar posted this stat line:
+0.29 EPA/att, 46% success, 9.8 YPA, 2:0 TD:INT, and 79% comp
The Ravens were up so big at halftime, they didn’t have to do much in the second half, but Lamar’s first half was even more impressive:
+0.49 EPA/att, 57% success, 12.2 YPA, 10-of-12 (83% comp)
He averaged 8.9 air yards per attempt, threw 43% of his passes beyond the sticks, and converted 100% of his third downs.
Ever since landing Deshaun Watson, the Browns have morphed their offense to live in 11 personnel.
And that’s not a good thing vs the Ravens.
Vs 11 personnel passes this year, the Ravens defense ranks:
- #2 in YPA (5.3)
- #3 in EPA/att (-0.24)
- #6 in success rate allowed (27%)
Watson also loves to push the ball deep down the field, but the Ravens have been elite defending deep passes this year.
Vs passes thrown 15+ yards downfield, the Ravens rank:
- #1 in EPA/att (-0.42)
- #2 in YPA (7.5)
- #2 in completion rate (30%)
- #2 in success rate allowed (32%)
I do not have confidence in Watson in this spot, nor do I believe the Browns come out with an open offense, chucking the ball around and having Watson take deep, risky dropbacks frequently without his starting LT Jedrick Wills available.
The starting offensive line the Browns will bring to Baltimore will have Watson running for his life.
As a result, I think field position will favor the Ravens and will allow them to do enough on the scoreboard in the first half.
