Buccaneers (-2.5) at Rams
The Rams will take a step up in opposing quarterback class these next three games against Tom Brady, Kyler Murray, and Russell Wilson after facing and beating Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz/Jacob Eason the first two weeks.
Aaron Donald and company rank sixth in pressures with 36 through two games, coincidentally one fewer than the Buccaneers, and have two of the 12 best games so far in Pass Rush Points Saved. The Rams also rank third in Pass Defense Points Saved per Play.
When the teams met last season in Week 11, the Rams won in Tampa on Matt Gay’s late field goal. Brady had his third-worst game of the season by Points Earned, was 0-for-6 on passes at least 20 yards downfield, and was intercepted by Jordan Fuller twice.
Matthew Stafford is enjoying a little more comfort in Sean McVay and Kevin O’Connell’s offense than he did with the Lions. He had the third-most Passing Points Earned Per Play in Week 1 and the second-most Passing Points Earned Per Play in Week 2 (minimum 10 plays). Last season, Stafford threw about half of his pass attempts in 1- or 3-step drops. This season, he’s done so on only 18-of-56 pass attempts, increasing the use of longer dropbacks and designed rollouts.
Stafford has been pressured 11 times in two games. He was pressured on an average of 10 dropbacks per game last season. The Rams have done a better job of protecting him on 5- and-7 step drops than they did Goff last season. The opponents' pressure rate is 22% through two games compared to 41% in 2020.
Matthew Stafford Drop Types
| Drop Type | 2020 Usage | 2021 Usage | 2020 Pressure Rate | 2021 Pressure Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1- and 3-step | 51% | 31% | 24% | 22% |
| 5- and 7-step | 37% | 40% | 38% | 22% |
| Rollouts | 4% | 14% | 33% | 25% |
As noted above, the Buccaneers rank fifth in pressures this season with 37, one more than the Rams.
The combination of a new approach and minimal pressure has worked well for Stafford, who ranks second in Points Earned per play in the first two weeks, trailing only Tyrod Taylor.
The Buccaneers are a little concerned about their pass defense with cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting out with an elbow injury, but even what they might consider an ‘eh’ showing puts them 10th in Pass Defense Points Saved per play.
Keep an eye on running back Darrell Henderson’s status as he may miss the game or be limited by a rib injury. Sony Michel may have the potential to surprise. If we lower the qualifier to 50 rush attempts, Michel ranked second among running backs with an average of 5.7 yards per carry and was fifth in yards after contact per rush with 3.2 in 2020. Michel has 11 rush attempts this season and is the only player with at least 10 who hasn’t been hit at the line of scrimmage.
