Sharp Football's Rich Hribrar breaks down this Jaguars vs Chargers AFC Wild Card Playoff matchup:
This the second time these teams have met this NFL season. Going back to Week 3, the Jaguars routed the Chargers on the road 38-10. They never trailed in the game. The Chargers had the game 16-10 at one point in the third quarter, but then the Jaguars reeled off the final 22 points of the game.
The Chargers were just 1-5 against teams with a winning record this season, but that game came attached to QB Justin Herbert playing with fractured ribs after failing to practice during the week.
Going back to that week, Herbert was expected to miss the game. He pushed through but was ineffective. As was the Chargers' running game, something that has been missing largely the entire season. The Chargers had a season-low 26 rushing yards in that game while the Jags racked up 151.
That was a common theme for the Chargers this season as they averaged a league-worst 1.6 fewer yards per rushing play than their opponent while they averaged 56.1 fewer rushing yards per game than their opponents, ahead of only the Texans.
Defensively there is not a lot to write home about on either side:
- The Jaguars were 18th in yards allowed per play while the Jaguars ranked 29th.
- Jacksonville allowed a touchdown on 21.7% of opponent drives (19th) while the Chargers allowed a touchdown on 22.3% (21st).
- Only the Lions (34) allowed more plays of 30-plus yards this season than the Chargers (33).
- The Chargers also sported the league’s worst defense on first downs, allowing a league-high 6.8 yards per play.
- That was equal footing as they allowed 8.3 yards per first down passing play (32nd) and 5.8 yards per rushing play on first down (32nd).
The Chargers did have a solid run from Weeks 14-17 in which they allowed 17 or fewer points in all four games, but outside of the Dolphins, the other teams they faced over that stretch were the Titans, Colts, and Rams.
Outside of allowing just 17 points to the Dolphins, Los Angeles allowed 27, 38, 37, 22, and 30 points to the other playoff teams they faced this season.
The Jaguars did not fare much better outside of slowing the Chargers down in Week 3.
Outside of that game, they allowed 29 points to the Eagles, 23 to the Giants, 27 to the Chiefs, 27 to the Ravens, and 34 points to the Cowboys. This game has plenty of shootout potential.
» Read the full Chargers vs Jaguars Worksheet breakdown
Chargers vs Jaguars Prediction
The Chargers are predicted to win this AFC Wild Card game with a 56.52% implied probability based on current betting lines. The moneyline model also predicts the Chargers will win with 51.7% confidence.
» Bet it Now: Chargers vs Jaguars
Chargers vs Jaguars Odds, Spread, Total & Moneyline
Chargers vs Jaguars Team Comparison:
| LA Chargers | Rank | @ | Jacksonville | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | Spread | 1.5 | ||
| 24.25 | Implied Total | 22.75 | ||
| 23 | 13 | Points/Gm | 23.8 | 10 |
| 22.6 | 21 | Points All./Gm | 20.6 | 12 |
| 67.9 | 2 | Plays/Gm | 63.1 | 18 |
| 58.9 | 3 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.1 | 29 |
| 5.3 | 20 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 9 |
| 5.9 | 29 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 18 |
| 35.01% | 31 | Rush% | 41.79% | 17 |
| 64.99% | 2 | Pass% | 58.21% | 16 |
| 45.61% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 42.50% | 13 |
| 54.39% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 57.50% | 20 |
Chargers Best Bets Against the Spread:
- The Chargers have covered the 2Q Spread in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Chargers have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.95 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Chargers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Chargers have scored last in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 60% ROI)
Jaguars Best Bets Against the Spread:
- The Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+8.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Jaguars have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+7.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Jaguars have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Jaguars have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.95 Units / 72% ROI)
- The Jaguars have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.80 Units / 30% ROI)
First & Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction & Bet:
Keenan Allen (WR, Chargers) is our pick for the 1st TD Scorer bet in this AFC Wild Card Weekend matchup.
Donald Parham (TE, Chargers) is our pick for an anytime TD Scorer bet in this AFC Wild Card Weekend matchup.
» Get Anytime & 1st TD Scorer Bets for every Wild Card game
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Jaguars vs Chargers
| PLAYER NAME | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 58.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 |
| Evan Engram | 41.5 -120 | 41.5 -110 |
| Travis Etienne | 15.5 -120 | 15.5 -110 |
| Zay Jones | 49.5 -110 | 49.5 -120 |
| Keenan Allen | 74.5 -115 | 74.5 -120 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Jaguars vs Chargers
| PLAYER NAME | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 50.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 |
| Justin Herbert | 7.5 -125 | 7.5 -105 |
| Travis Etienne | 75.5 -110 | 75.5 -120 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 13.5 -115 | 13.5 -115 |
Chargers Against the Spread Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers have gone 11-5 (+5.5 Units / 29.65% ROI).
- Chargers are 10-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.55 Units / 2% ROI
- Chargers are 6-9 when betting the Over for -3.9 Units / -20.86% ROI
- Chargers are 9-6 when betting the Under for +2.4 Units / ROI
Jaguars Against the Spread Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars have gone 8-9 (-1.9 Units / -10.22% ROI).
- Jaguars are 9-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 8.15% ROI
- Jaguars are 8-9 when betting the Over for -1.95 Units / -10.4% ROI
- Jaguars are 9-8 when betting the Under for +0.2 Units / 1.07% ROI
Continue reading from BetMGM's Chargers vs Jaguars game breakdown
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